Last week my picks were 0-3 straight up, but 2-1 against the spread. I really thought it would be a crazy upset week. It had that feel. Maybe this week sees a nutty upset.

Recap of Picks

The Giants had no business even being on the same field with the Panthers for three quarters of that game. Somehow the Giants tied the game but of course, as it's been all year, the Giants defense blew another game. I think the Giants are done now. They needed to beat the Panthers and now are virtually eliminated; they need to beat the Vikings and Eagles, and have Washington lose to the Eagles and Cowboys. It's not impossible, but unlikely.

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The Jets are really overrated. They needed a last second field goal to win a game in which Kellen Moore was playing his first NFL game. It was such an ugly game to watch. The Jets couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop the run. If your secondary has Darrelle Revis, I don't understand why you don't stack the box and dare Moore to beat you. The Jets will get exposed by New England this week.

This one stung the most. For the third straight week, the Broncos were a completely different team in the second half. Since scoring 23 points in the fourth quarter and overtime against New England, the Broncos have scored ZERO second half points. I'll repeat: the Broncos have not scored in the second half for three straight weeks. Osweiler looks great in the first half of the games, but in the second half it's like Peyton Manning is back there throwing up wobblers. The game against the Steelers should have been OVER at halftime. The Steelers defense isn't good, especially their pass defense, yet the Broncos couldn't do a thing in that second half. What's behind the second half collapses of Denver? I have no clue, but if they don't get it figured out by Monday night, they may miss the playoffs.

There's due to be one huge upset this week.

Upset Bids for Week 16

3. Bears +3 at Buccaneers

When you expect something of the Bears, they let you down. When you don't, they show up to play. I'll explain. In week 5, the Chiefs were huge favorites over the Bears. Not many gave the Bears a shot (I did), and they won. Then you start to expect good things from Chicago, but they then lose two in a row to the Lions and Vikings. Everyone jumped off the bandwagon, in which they then beat the Chargers and Rams as road underdogs. Everyone jumped back on the bandwagon, where they lost a devastating game to the Broncos. Everyone loved the Packers to blow out the Bears on Thanksgiving night, but the Bears won. Everyone was all of a sudden in love with Chicago, until they lost to the 49ers (I had that one), Washington, and Vikings. Now what happens? I'm sure you realized the pattern. The Bears will show up to play and win this game in which everyone is off their bandwagon.

I also still can't believe Jameis Winston only has three multi-interception games. I watched the guy in college throw the ball with reckless abandon. I have a feeling this could be Winston's "great" game. I mean "great" in the sense of "great to watch when Winston throws head scratchers and loses his mind on Sunday."

2.  49ers +9.5 at Lions

Why do people love the Jim Caldwell led Lions? There is no appeal to this team at all. The Statue - Jim Caldwell's new nickname I just dubbed - is one of the best faces to see on the sideline, but not when you bet on him. I'm still shaking my head about this 9.5 point spread, though. What did the Lions do to be 9.5 point favorites over anyone? Oh, yeah, they beat the Saints in the Superdome on Monday night football. I forgot how hard it is to beat New Orleans in their precious dome anymore. No, not really. The Saints are 3-4 at home this year in their once formidable dome. What else have the Lions done? Beating the Packers in Green Bay doesn't look so good after how they've floundered. Detroit gave up 21 points to the Rams two weeks ago, which was the first time the Rams scored more than 20 points in six weeks. Good job Lions for conceding 21 to Case Keenum!

The 49ers offense isn't good, but how much can you expect from Blaine Gabbert. What I do like about the 49ers is their defense, particularly how they've fared the past four weeks against the pass. Carson Palmer threw for 271 yards on them, 34 yards below his season average. The week after, Jay Cutler threw for 202 yards, well below his average of 250 yards passing per game. They let up a little to Johnny Manziel, conceding 270 yards passing, but got back at it this past week, sacking A.J. McCarron four times, yielding 192 yards per game. The 49ers defense has only given up 300 yards passing or more four times this season, none since Matt Ryan threw for 303 yards back in week 9.

Take the points. Never ever bet a heavily favored Caldwell team. He has no emotion, and seems disinterested all game.

1. Falcons +7 vs. Panthers

I've been picking against the Panthers every week. Will this finally be the week the Panthers lose? If they win this game, might as well pencil them in at 16-0. There is no way the Panthers lose to a Bucs team at home in week 17, unless Ron Rivera benches the starters. This is a heated divisional rivalry game. The Panthers shut out the Falcons two weeks ago, and don't think they've forgotten. The Falcons season unraveled in the second half, and although the season is not technically over, it's over. When they play this game, they will still be alive for the playoffs - the Seahawks play in their time slot and the Vikings play at night.

This is the Falcons Super Bowl. Last year, the Panthers beat them 34-3 in Atlanta, in what was a game to clinch the division. If the Falcons can't get themselves motivated and look ready for this football game, ownership should fire everyone on the staff. I would be very surprised if the Falcons don't keep this one close, simply based on the revenge factor. For the Panthers, Cam Newton is banged up and I wonder if the Panthers have a hangover from the Giants and the whole sports media focusing on the Giants-Panthers feud this week.

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