MLB DFS Lineup Picks & Sleepers - DraftKings Advice for 7/29/16

July 29, 2015

Sam Nedimyer's analysis and advice for the top MLB DFS lineup picks on DraftKings for 7/29/15, as well as a couple of sleepers to keep in mind while building your daily fantasy baseball rosters.

Sick of hearing about Deflategate? Me too. Hopefully this write-up gives you the release from insanity that you are experiencing via sports talk on this Wednesday morning. Below are my DraftKings picks for Wednesday, July 29th, 2015.  As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock.

Editor's Note: If you play on DraftKings, you should check out our Partner FanDuel - they're hosting a one-day Fantasy Baseball league tonight. It's just $5 to enter and pays out $100,000 in cash prizes, including 10K to 1st place!

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Game Notes

• It appears that the weather gods will once again be kind to us mere mortals. In the early games, only light rain is scheduled in Cleveland and Chicago while Baltimore may see a delay at most. One weather report to keep an eye on is the wind gusts in Minnesota. As of this writing, 19-20 MPH wind gusts are projected out to left field. Power right-handed bats look to benefit the most.
• Be careful in the early games with pitching. There are some aces on the board that have some suspect matchups. Chris Archer’s DFS strength is in strikeouts, and he gets a team in the Tigers that typically do not strike out. The Royals have pummeled Corey Kluber this season with 13 runs in 19 innings, and Francisco Liriano is still walking a high number of batters.
• For stacking purposes, look no further than the Kansas City-Cleveland matchup. Guthrie and Kluber have both been destroyed by the opposing offenses this year and in their careers. Every left-handed bat in the Cleveland lineup needs to be considered, while the top four Royals hitters have considerable success against Kluber.
• It’s tough to sell the Rays on a stack, but there are a few exploitable options against Justin Verlander. Chief among the good plays are John Jaso and Evan Longoria. Try to get Longoria in your lineups.
• Day games in San Francisco typically yield more runs due to weather and wind patterns. Mike Fiers versus Jake Peavy offers some cheap, exploitable matchups that a lot of players will not be featuring in their lineups. Stacking Giants and Brewers is a great GPP play.
• The late games also offer top notch starting pitching but with better matchups. Masahiro Tanaka has been throwing darts lately but has perhaps the toughest matchup of the top tier starters. Lance McCullers has also been rather efficient this season, but seems to be on an innings limit. It’s best to fade both.
• The White Sox have seemingly put it all together and are now on a tear. They face Rick Porcello who has only given up less than two earned runs only once since May, and that was against the suddenly-lowly Tigers. Stack the (White) Sox.
• Even though they scored over 20 runs Tuesday night, there should be no offensive shortage for the Yankees in the late games. New York is running away with the division, both on and off the base paths. If you can afford left-handed Yankees against Colby Lewis, you will finish in the green. That’s as good as a Neil Patrick Harris Heineken commercial lock.
• The game that figures to have the most runs on the night is Philadelphia-Toronto. The Phillies have been playing well post-All Star Break and typically do not strike out, while the Blue Jays get Jerome Williams, who most people forgot is actually a “Major League” pitcher on a roster. If you can afford a second or third lineup, stack Phillies and Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre.

DFS Pitchers to Consider for DraftKings

Early Slate

Felix Hernandez, SEA - $11,200

Yes, it’s King Felix in the afternoon slate. He is still a stud at making batters whiff (23.9% K rate) despite this being an “off” year for the 29-year-old. It helps that he’ll face a Diamondbacks team that has a league-leading 29.0% K rate over the last week. He’s also a slightly better pitcher at home.

Jon Lester, CHC - $9,100

The Cubbies have been more like the little baby bear Cubs since the All-Star break. Even worse, they’re coming off a sweep at the hands of the lowly Phillies and just lost again to the Rockies. They are clearly in a rut offensively as guys like Kris Bryant have really struggled. However, the Rockies are atrocious against left-handed pitching as they are 27^th in wOBA (.287) and striking out at a 23.9% clip. And they just shipped out they’re best left masher earlier this week.

Late Games

Clayton Kershaw, LAD - $15,000

He is about as close to a pitching God as possible. Pay up if you really want him. His price is too high for me, though.

Tyson Ross, SD - $10,800

With trade rumors swirling, one has to hope that Ross is still on the Padres by first pitch. Most likely he will not be dealt, but he will be dealing tonight in Citi Field. His K rate has returned to a healthy number, nearly ten per nine innings, and he will be squaring off against the lowly Mets. As long as Ross limits the walks, he should be a great option.

John Lackey, STL - $8,600

The Red Birds will enter the game as a top Vegas favorite. The Reds, when not playing in Colorado, typically only cap at about three or four runs as it is, but if you factor in this time of year there is always the possibility that players like Jay Bruce or Brandon Phillips will not be in the lineup due to them being shipped out. Though his strikeout numbers are a little down, Lackey has gone eight starts without giving up more than two runs and has gone at least seven innings in all but one start. He went 6.2 innings when he didn’t go seven during that stretch. Great second pitcher option.

Chris Tillman, BAL - $6,000

Tillman is a tournament play, nothing else. He will not strikeout a lot of guys but he has looked rather solid since the All-Star Break. He has only given up one earned run in his last 15 innings and he will be the win favorite Wednesday night.

DFS Catchers to Consider for DraftKings

Early Slate

Kyle Schwarber, CHC - $3,700

A .485 BABIP isn’t sustainable long term. However, he is batting second in the order and is also on a nice hot streak. Of course, you’ll have to pay up for him and if you’re throwing out King Felix and Lester, that may not be possible.

John Jaso, TB - $3,000

I like Jaso a lot better for the price factor. He is a right-hand pitching killing machine and has been for his career. As long as he is in the starting lineup, he should torch Justin Verlander.

Late Games

Matt Wieters, BAL - $2,900

At this price, Wieters is almost a punt option that has incredible home run potential on any night. Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz will be making his first start since being optioned to Triple-A. An experienced hitter like Wieters can take advantage of a wanting-to-impress Folty any day.

DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings

FIRST BASE – Early Slate

Carlos Santana, CLE - $3,900

Eric Hosmer, KC - $3,900

This is about as close to a pick ‘em as it gets. Santana gets the nod here as he has better homerun potential against Guthrie. He also owns a .440 AVG against the Kansas City righty in 25 career at bats. Not too shabby. Hosmer is just a good a pick. He has slugged three homeruns in his last six games and owns a ridiculous 367 wRC+ during this current span.

Late Games

Chris Davis, BAL - $4,200

Considering that DraftKings does not truly penalize for hitters that record outs- or in Davis’s case, strikeouts- then Chrush is a great play for Wednesday night. He has been on a tear with five homeruns over the last week. He loves hitting in the short right field of Camden Yards and he has that great lefty/right platoon split against Folty.

SECOND BASE – Early Slate

Jason Kipnis, CLE - $4,700

Due to the pitching prices, Kipnis is a better plug-in for GPP plays because his price is just so darn high. If he is in your lineup, he sure will come through against the hittable Guthrie.

Joe Panik, SF - $3,400

Panik is a better cash game play in the early slate. Despite owning a .257 wOBA over the last week, he has hit righties very well on the year. According to reports from the Bay area, Panik has experienced some nagging back issues, so make sure to triple check the lineups to make sure he is in.

Late Games

Kolten Wong, STL - $4,400

Second base is rather thin in the night games. Wong is the best choice for homerun potential. He’ll be teeing off against Anthony DeSclafani, who yields an 11.3% HR/FB rate against left-handed bats. DeSclafani typically does not go deep into games, so should he only go five or six innings, then Wong will lick his chops against a taxed and terrible Reds bullpen.

Carlos Sanchez, CWS - $2,500

Every so often a player at a cheap price presents himself as a truly unbelievable and hard-to-resist play. Sanchez is that guy. Sanchez is seeing the ball like a balloon right now. He owns a .550 wOBA and 261 wRC+ over the last week. It’s almost like he is a great sale on a commercial right now. With these prices, you HAVE to play him against Porcello.

SHORTSTOP – Early Slate

Jung-ho Kang, PIT - $3,400

Of all the eligible shortstops in the early slate, Kang is the wOBA leader over the last week with a .473 to boot. He typically does not walk but he is turning into a nice power option in the fifth spot for the Pirates.

Late Games

Troy Tulowtizki, TOR - $4,100

Mr. Tulowtizki, welcome to Rogers Centre- the American League’s version of Coors Field. Have fun against Jerome Williams. See you on Thursday.

THIRD BASE – Early Slate

Trevor Plouffe, MIN - $4,000

For whatever reason, and without any statistics to back it up, it seems like Plouffe always goes yard in day games. He owns a nice platoon split against Liriano at home in Target Field, where he owns a wRC+ of 136 against lefties.

Evan Longoria, TB - $3,300

Am I missing something? No, seriously. Because it seems like Longoria’s price should be higher considering he owns a .458 wOBA and 212 wRC+ over his last 25 plate appearances. And today he gets Verlander. This one really isn’t rocket science.

Late Games

Matt Carpenter, STL - $3,900

I like playing Carp over Wong in terms of playing a Cardinal tonight. His price has dropped so much in July that the Federal Government may need to bail him out. Most of the price drop is not justify. His BABIP has dropped to .205, meaning that he is getting really, really unlucky. From here on out, plug in Wong’s write up and read on.

Chase Headley, NYY - $3,800

As much as Carpenter’s price has dropped, Headley’s has skyrocketed and with good cause. Headley owns a .429 OBP and .442 wOBA, mostly against righties, over the last week while driving in nine runs. Despite being at or near the bottom of the lineup, the Yankees continue to pour out runs and he should get plenty of opportunity to drive and score in runs against Colby Lewis.

DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings

Early Slate

Michael Brantley, CLE - $4,600

Brandon Moss, CLE - $3,400

This mini-stack of Indians outfielders should not disappoint. Combined against Guthrie, they have gone 17-for-48 with four homeruns and 10 RBI. Though I like Moss a bit better due to the price, Brantley does bat higher in the lineup. Neither should disappoint this afternoon.

Starling Marte, PIT - $4,400

In only three career at-bats against Ervin Santana, Marte has three hits and two of those have gone for long balls. Clearly, he likes seeing him. Marte is listed as day-to-day so there is a strong possibility he doesn’t play in an afternoon interleague game. If he is off, then his teammate makes for a strong play.

Andrew McCutchen, PIT - $4,600

Cutch is on a bit of a downslide, but that doesn’t mean he is a top option almost every day. That being said, look to play Cutch only if Marte cannot go. He is due and has the nice weather conditions to get a nice non-PED boost.

Late Games

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY - $4,900

Brett Gardner, NYY - $4,400

I normally do not like to stack or show mini-stacks in 50/50 games, but the two outfield mini-stacks shown in this write-up are so hard to not play. This outfield mini-stack is more expensive than the early slate, but is just as juicy. Gardner has better numbers against Lewis but Ellsbury will have plenty of opportunity to get on base and score. If you can only afford one, Ellsbury is the better play for the power potential but try to fit both in some of your lineups.

Adam Eaton, CWS - $4,000

Melky Cabrera, CWS - $3,800

Seemingly out of nowhere, Cabrera has been on a tear and shows no signs of slowing down. At his price, he makes for great value considering the number of at-bats he should see. In 18 career at bats, Cabrera has nine hits and one homerun against Porcello. Something tells me he should expand on those numbers Wednesday night. As for Eaton, he is a great power/speed option who is walking a great deal and owns a wRC+ of 217 over the past week. Both of these guys are dialed in and make for a cheaper mini-stack should you not go for the Ellsbury/Gardner play.

Preston Tucker, HOU - $3,300

I would never recommend a punt play in the outfield position. If you do punt, though, try not to spend anything below $3,200. Tucker is available at just above that. He doesn’t really walk and strikes out more than he should, but that shouldn’t hurt players on DraftKings as much as it does on other sites. Tucker is torching righties at home with a .424 wOBA and a wRC+ of 177. Though Garrett Richards has been a decent pitcher on the season, he is not invulnerable to giving up a long ball to lefties.

DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6 PM on 7/29

Leave your question here and then come back at 6 PM when Max answers everything. For our regular MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat, click here.

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