RADIO
You know, I'm actually kind of upset that Omar Infante is not going to the All-Star Game. Don't get me wrong - there is no way he's actually worthy of an All-Star selection. If he made it, though, Yost would have needed to perform a roster miracle to get 14 other teams represented, compromising quality and allowing the NL to run away with the game.
If you're a NL fan like me, that would be a good thing. The absurdity of the situation also would have forced Commissioner Manfred to change something - either remove fan voting or turn the game back into an exhibition. That could also be a good thing.
On topic, this week we look at yet another Twins pitcher that is allergic to strikeouts, a Dodgers rookie that is not performing at all as he was supposed to, and the riddle wrapped in an enigma veiled by a mystery that is the Cleveland starting rotation's ace. Lets begin.
Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN)
Do the Twins collect guys like this? His 7-6 record with a 3.04 ERA is appealing in most fantasy formats, but his 4.14 FIP rooted in a pathetic 6.08 K/9 ruins his fantasy appeal. The fact that the Ks are a significant improvement over last year's 5.37 K/9 is almost incomprehensible. He also walks entirely too many - 2.87 per 9 innings. His strand rate seems way too high (80.4%), his BABIP too low (.270), and he's too homer prone (13.8% HR/FB) to sustain his current success.
Then you look at Pitch f/x data, which points to a slider that generates whiffs 20.1% of the time and a change with a 17.3% SwStr%. The slider is chased out of the zone 42.8% of the time, while the change is chased at a 52.9% clip. Both are actually decent strikeout pitches, and how Gibson could have both and not have even a league average K rate is puzzling. There is definitely room for improvement here - Gibson could break the Twin tradition and get punchouts.
The Twins seem to prefer guys that get grounders over Ks, and fantasy owners like the low slugging percentages associated with grounders too. Overall, Gibson has a 54% grounder rate fueled by a 2-seamer (64.2%) and changeup (65.6%) that post elite rates. Between grounders and the potential for Ks, Gibson actually has plus stuff if you don't count his fastball.
Gibson's heat is bad. No, its beyond bad - it is a joke. Major league hitters have a 35.4% LD rate against this pitch, and balls hit into the air against it have a HR/FB of 20%. Its whiff rate is a paltry 2.7%. Hitters kill this pitch, which is why I did not argue for regression to the power mean above. Still, it is possible to succeed in the majors without a fastball (think Collin McHugh) and Gibson has the potential as a first round draft pick to amount to something. That something is still likely to walk too many (no pitch is a strike more than 45.5% of the time) and have a hard time finding wins, but a breakout second half is a distinct possibility.
Verdict: Champ
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD)
Fantasy owners were always going to salivate over this guy - a 30/30, .300 average season at Triple-A the prior year will do that. His .230/.368/.496 triple slash line with 20 bombs before the All-Star break represents a third of what fantasy owners wanted - the power pace is better than anything he did in the minors. But where is the speed? And what happened to .300? Is the power sustainable?
First, the wheels - Pederson went 61-for-82 on the bases in two seasons in the high minors, a solid success rate. He started his major league career two-for-nine, however, prompting new Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman to give him a red light - sabermetrics do not support running with that kind of success rate. The manager, Don Mattingly, is more old school, however, and I think he will let the kid run again now that he has seen major league moves. Judging from minor league history, he should have a better success rate. Friedman is not completely adverse to running - look at the Tampa teams he put together - and will allow him to go in the second half.
The batting average conjecture is not quite as rosy. He strikes out too much with a 14.4% SwStr%, but he walks as well (above average 26.8% O-Swing%) so it is not a complete disaster. More concerning are his BABIP tendencies. Over his minor league career (minimum 300 PAs), Pederson has posted the following BABIPs: .403, .350, .327, and .385. In the majors this year, its .276. That might seem due for correction, but his opposite field percentage is just 17.4%. That makes him shift bait, doomed to have a lower than expected BABIP until he changes his approach. In the minors, there is not as much data on tendencies - pulling the ball hard consistently means plus BABIPs. In April, Pederson had a major league BABIP of .406, continuing his minor league success before the scouting report was well known. The weakness has been exposed, and as a result his average likely caps out at .260 with .240 being more realistic. A more optimistic projection could use his low 17% liner rate - a stat known for random fluctuation - to correct going forward. However, his liners have a BABIP of just .614 and his speed could justify his high minor league BABIPs without significant liner contributions. He might not be a line drive guy.
Finally, his 27% HR/FB in Dodger Stadium is almost surely a mirage - he has power, but not more than Giancarlo Stanton. Still, luck does not even out such that he'll have a below average rate going forward to get to a normal rate for the year. Rather, he will have a normal rate going forward and a plus rate overall when the first half is included. He probably has 10 more bombs in him, and he should swipe 20 bags before the year is done. That is 30/20 - who cares about average?
Verdict: Champ
Corey Kluber (SP, CLE)
Kluber has gone 4-9 with a 3.45 ERA this season, and fantasy owners expected more out of the second pitcher off the board in many preseason drafts. His 18-9, 2.44 ERA last season was certainly impressive, but it also came from nowhere. Last season's strand rate of 78.6% was high, this year's 70.9% is normal. Last year's 7.4% HR/FB was low, this year's 9% figure is closer to normal. His best K rate in the High Minors was 9.98/9 in 122.3 AA innings. At Triple A, it was closer to a flat 9. Last year broke double digits in the majors (10.27). Where did that come from? Last year's 235.3 IP were a career-high by a substantial margin (previous best: 188.1 in 2012). If you believe Tom Verducci, that was a red flag heading into the year. Honestly, I was surprised that everyone bought into the breakout campaign so completely, with no hedge based on the fact that he had only done it once.
Yet he still has the Ks, as his K/9 is actually up to 10.63 this season. He also continues to walk no one, allowing just 1.87 BB/9 so far this year. These factors combine to give him a still elite 2.42 FIP, inspiring many to continue to be confident in the under performing ace. The strikeouts look legit - his 13.9% SwStr% is nearly two full points better than last year's already excellent 12% mark. According to Pitch f/x, he also has elite strikeout stuff, including a slider (49% O-Swing%, 22.4% SwStr%), curve (50.3%, 18.8%), and change (37.9%, 24.4%). Most pitchers would love to have that kind of arsenal.
With so many weapons, you would think that pitch selection would not really matter - but I think it does. His 2014 breakout campaign was rooted in a clear change in pitch selection that saw his fastball plummet in usage from 24.1% to just 3.4% and a sinker pick up the slack from 29.1% to 48.8%. This year, the fastball is up to 12% while the sinker is down to 36.7% - partially undoing what worked so well last season. He is also experimenting with a 2-seamer, cutter, and splitter that he really has no need for. The sinker does not generate Ks at all (3.5% SwStr%), instead getting hit on the ground at an above average rate. Striking out more batters is the direct result of throwing it less often, but that does not mean that he is a better pitcher without it - sometimes you need an AB to end in a pitch or two. The fact that he thinks he needs to strikeout everybody may be a condemnation of Cleveland's defense.
Cleveland's defense is bad, and Kluber's BABIP suffers for it. Already a pretty high .316 in his breakout campaign, it has jumped to .338 this season. Nearly all of Kluber's offerings are affected despite continuing to generate strong K numbers, so this is not like Gibson's worthless fastball. Yet it also will not correct, as the Indians employ bad fielders and this is not likely to change. Kluber's FIP will remain elite, but his fantasy stats do not have the luxury of being fielding independent.
Finally, I think Kluber may walk more going forward as only two of his pitches are consistently strikes - the fastball (52.7%) and sinker (53.6%). He really relies on opposing hitters going out of the zone, and they may be able to adjust to that as word spreads he wants to strikeout everyone. Kluber's Ks make him fantasy relevant for the foreseeable future, but his ERA will be dragged down by his team and wins will be hard to come by as well. Most of his owners would probably take King Felix or Max Scherzer where they took Kluber now, and there is no way to get preseason value for him in a trade. While far from bad, Kluber has burned his owners and for that reason I must call him . . .
Verdict: Chump
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