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I’ll start this by saying that Andrew Hawkins is definitely exclusive to deeper leagues and PPR leagues. He provides some sneaky value and showed that last year right up to the point that target-hog Josh Gordon and poor excuse for a football player Johnny Manziel sapped his late season value. Prior to that, the 5’7” 175 lb receiver was providing legitimate WR3 value and could do so once again.
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I’m going to focus on Hawkins’ stats in the first 10 games because once Josh Gordon entered the mix he immediately saw 15 and 12 targets in his first two games resulting in a major drop in targets for Hawkins. As we all know, Josh Gordon won’t be on the field this season so it makes sense to discard how he impacted the Cleveland passing game.
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In the first 10 games of the season, Hawkins played in nine games and saw at least eight targets in all but one. This resulted in a respectable 45 receptions, 601 yards and 2 touchdowns. Over a full season, that would be a 80-1,070-3 line. That would be very similar to the numbers I expect from Kendall Wright, a player I’ve already written about. These types of players never seem to get the respect they deserve because they don’t score a lot of touchdowns but make no mistake - that’s a valuable PPR player. The big question is can Hawkins put up those kinds of numbers again?
Josh Gordon may be gone but there are a lot of new pieces in place. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan resigned after the season and has been replaced by first-time OC John DeFilippo. Given DeFilippo’s lack of experience as a coordinator I can’t really project how he will use his players. What we do know is that he spent the last three years as the quarterbacks coach in Oakland, guiding Derek Carr through his rookie season and previously doing a fair job with Carson Palmer, Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin.
The Browns have added Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe at wide receiver, both of whom seemed to have fallen out of favor with their previous teams. They also added Vince Mayle in the 4th round of the draft and still have returning WR Taylor Gabriel whom they drafted last year. I don’t see Hartline, Bowe and Mayle as any threat to the role Andrew Hawkins has played in Cleveland. All three are much bigger and slower wide receivers. While Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins coexisted in 2014 with thinner depth at WR, Gabriel poses the real threat to Hawkins' playing time this year. Gabriel is similarly sized at 5’8” and 167 lbs and is slightly slower with a 4.45 40 time compared to Andrew Hawkins 4.39. Given Hawkins’ elite speed and agility score on PlayerProfiler compared to Taylor Gabriel coupled with Hawkins success last year, I give Hawkins a definite edge to see regular playing time.
Lastly, there is a change at quarterback where Josh McCown steps in for Brian Hoyer. I would grade the two similarly as they put up similar numbers last year. That being said, McCown had Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans to throw to, so that’s a bit troubling. I don’t think Johnny Manziel is likely to see the field unless he is truly a different person off the field and has improved his QB play significantly. Even then, I’d be concerned about his ability to get...well, anyone, the ball at a consistent rate.
Hawkins will certainly have to develop a strong rapport with Josh McCown to match the 80 catch line I mentioned above. It’s very much within the realm of possibility but a more reasonable expectation is probably 70-900-3. In 14-team leagues and 12-team PPR leagues that will absolutely find you a spot on a roster. Not bad for a guy going undrafted in virtually all leagues. With no Josh Gordon or Johnny Manziel to get in the way, Hawkins can be a very consistent and reliable receiver. Oh, if Johnny Manziel does end up starting at some point? Jump ship as fast as possible. Seriously, you won’t want any part of the Browns passing game at that point.
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