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Orioles Rotation and Matt Wisler: Week 12 Starting Pitcher Pickups and Analysis

What's up readers. I'm back with another edition of scouring the waiver wire to help you make that next step with your fantasy roster.  If you've been following along with this series all season, you know the drill. If not, this article is to help you uncover starting pitcher options that may have been overlooked in your league or dropped after a poor start.

As always I include options for shallow and deeper leagues. I also add my list of pitchers discussed previously in at the end of the article with ownership levels to boot. Make sure to check them out, and grab any that are still out there.

Don’t forget to check out our Starting Pitcher Matchups & Streaming Tool for expert guidance during the week too, including what pitchers to start/sit for seasonal and DFS leagues. Let’s get to it.

Editor’s Note: to read about even more waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.

 

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Shallow Leagues

Wei-Yin Chen (BAL, SP)

OWNED IN: 46% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 10 + team leagues

I had no intentions to discuss Chen in this segment. That was until the Orioles decided to demote Chen to the minors after his eight-inning shutout vs the Phillies. Video can be seen here. The move allows the team to skip his next start at Toronto and keep him on regular rest, but safe to say Chen wasn't pleased.

Chen voiced his opinion on Twitter, displeased with the underlying assumption he is injured. Considering most injured players go to the DL, the consensus behind the move is the Orioles gamed the system, a move that allows Chen to miss 10 days instead of 15.

For fantasy terms, the hope here is that unaware or impatient owners see the N/A slapped next to Chen and make a foolish drop. His ownership has already lost a few ticks. If he becomes available in your league, I recommend making a move.

Chen has been arguably the best pitcher in the Orioles rotation, posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with a 71/19 K/BB ratio. In June he has a 1.89 ERA with 23/4 BB/K ratio, although the road hasn't been very treacherous (@ HOU, vs BOS, vs PHI). His advanced numbers are similar to his 2014 campaign, although the strikeouts and walks are both up and his BABIP is .274, down from .296 in 2014. I do expect some regression from Chen, but it won't be enough to make him not worthy of mixed team consideration. Make the move and wait it out till he returns to the rotation.

 

Mark Buehrle (TOR, SP)

OWNED IN: 27% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Stream Worthy / Add in 12+ team leagues

BuerhleBuerhle doesn't get much love in fantasy circles and rightfully so; his WHIP is usually in the 1.30s and he doesn't strikeout many guys. But his latest string of performances warrants some attention for fantasy purposes. In Buerhle's three June starts he's compiled a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings, all vs NL East opponents (@ WAS, vs MIA, @ NYM). The Marlins and Mets have been scuffling lately making it difficult to place any emphasis on those performances, but he pitched well nonetheless.

History shows Buerhle typically starts off rough (4.12 ERA in April) and then starts to settle down (3.58 ERA from May-July). He was excellent in his last outing vs Baltimore, completing seven innings of two run ball with five strikouts and one walk.

His BB/9 rate is sitting at 1.79, which if he can maintain will be key to controlling his WHIP. In five of the previous six seasons in which Buerhle has had a BB/9 rate below 2.00, his WHIP has been at or below 1.26. The hard-hit contact rate is at a career-high 35.6% which leads me to believe the fun won't last forever here.

The data also shows Buerhle tends to regress in the dog days of summer, so my advice is to grab Buerhle now for streaming purposes in mixed leagues and as a rotation option in deep leagues. That said, his inability to rack up Ks limits his potential so don't grow attached to his recent string of performances. Ride the wave and then be ready for the next one.

 

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Deeper Leagues

Matt Wisler (ATL, SP)

OWNED IN: 3% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVER: Stream Watch / Add in 14+ team leagues / NL-Only

The Braves decided to continue adding young pitching to the rotation by bringing up Matt Wisler for a home outing vs the Mets. And boy did he bring it. Wisler was superb on Friday, hurling eight innings of one run ball on just 88 pitches. He walked none and struck out two.

As you may know, Wisler was a Padres prospect until the Opening Day deal for Craig Kimbrel. He's never been envisioned as a MLB ace (even after Friday's outing), but he does project as a solid middle-rotation piece. Check out his minor league track record here.

He doesn't have an overpowering arsenal, but he does have command of all five pitches (four-seam, two-seam, curve, slider, change). He wasn't dominating in the minors by any means (4.29 ERA with AAA-Gwinnett), but his ability to limit free passes is a key asset to surviving in the bigs. The issue is the high-K potential we saw before 2014 is gone. While he mowed down the inexperienced bats in High-A and Double-A (9.09 K/9), the hitters in Triple-A weren't falling for it (7.28 K/9).

Wisler projects more as a better real-life pitcher than as a fantasy pitcher. The lack of Ks hurts his chances of being a staple in shallow leagues, but I see him as a streaming option in order to avoid tough match-ups and pick your spots, like the Mets on Friday. I am not advising you start Wisler for his next outing at Washington, but keep your eye on the rookie as the story develops.

 

Kevin Gausman (BAL, SP)

OWNED IN: 8% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Stream Worthy / Add in 14+ team leagues

The Gasman finally got a crack in the rotation this weekend. His first assignment: Toronto. Yeesh. He ended up holding his own, going five innings with two runs earned and a strikeout. He also gave up four hits and a walk. His fastball was pumping in around 95-98 and he was locating it effectively. All in all it was a solid performance versus the high powered Jays.

If Gausman can control his slider and keep it in the zone his fastball will only improve, as hitters will see the need to respect his off-speed selection. A big problem for Gausman has been the lack of support; since 2013 his 3.13 run support per game is the worst of any MLB pitcher in that time frame. That's a trend that isn't likely to continue, but it's not a sign you want to see.

It'll be interesting to see how the Orioles handle their clogged rotation. The most effective rotation would be Ubaldo Jimenez, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Kevin Gausman, but that's not the likely scenario to play out. I expect the team to relegate Gausman back to the pen when Chen returns, enabling Bud Norris to remain in the rotation.

It's too early to see how this problem will play out, but Gausman needs to remain on fantasy owners watch. If Gausman finds himself as a regular in the rotation he has shallow league value and in deeper leagues he's worth stashing until further news is discovered.

 

Other Pitchers Previously Highlighted to Consider (In Order of Ownership %)

Noah Syndergaard (NYM, SP / 63% ; up 2%); Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP / 60% ; down 10%); Jaime Garcia (STL, SP / 54% ; up 19%); Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL, SP / 51% ; down 1%); Jesse Chavez (OAK, SP / 50% ; up 2%); Tim Lincecum (SF, SP / 47% ; no change); Taijuan Walker (SEA, SP; 53% ; up 9%);  Charlie Morton (PIT, SP / 41% ; up 27%); James Paxton (DL) (SEA, SP / 41% ; down 1%); Jesse Hahn (OAK, SP / 34%); Mike Leake (CIN, SP / 30% ; down 2%); Chase Anderson (ARI, SP / 20% ; up 4%); Matt Moore (DL) (TB, SP / 18% ; up 1%); Williams Perez (ATL, SP / 11%); Roenis Elias (SEA, SP / 12% ; down 4%); Wandy Rodriguez (TEX, SP / 10% ; down 1%); Tsuyoshi Wada (SP, CHC / 4% ; down 2%)

 

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