RADIO
It is finally time!!! We've all been waiting for the NFL season to kick off and its just about here. As for fantasy, week one is arguably the hardest because there are so many unknowns. How will the rookies play? Which new offensive schemes will work and which will look...not so good? It's not easy but I've been looking at all the information to come up with my rankings for week one and I'm excited to share! I'll go position by position highlighting the notable rankings.
Also included in these rankings are fellow RotoBaller and FantasyPros approved ranker Ryan Rufe's Week 1 Rankings.
Week 1 Quarterback Rankings Analysis
No surprises at the top with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but we quickly find Colin Kaepernick as the first surprise at QB3. This one is pretty simple for me - the Dallas D should be beyond atrocious. Considering my preseason love for Kaep, putting him so high up was easy.
The next surprise might be Russell Wilson at QB6 over Aaron Rodgers at QB7. Wilson looked phenomenal this preseason and the Seahawks defense should be as tough as ever. Rodgers will be elite this year, but not in week one. I have Nick Foles at QB12 which is very low.
I think the Jags are better than most expect, and I'm not sure how good Foles is compared to Cam Newton and his mobility or Matt Ryan with a healthy Julio and Roddy, the two QBs ahead of him. Carson Palmer at QB13 is the first great stream option. I love his weapons this year and the offensive line is much improved.The Chargers defense is nothing special and I expect Palmer, Fitz and Floyd to rack up points.
Week 1 Running Back Rankings Analysis
No major surprises early on here, I do have Marshawn Lynch over Matt Forte in standard, but its a nice matchup and the Bills have a solid defensive front. My RB8 is Doug Martin and as of this writing I am the highest of anyone at FantasyPros on Doug Martin. I still think he is elite and that he will get plenty of carries in week one.
They have a bunch of big receivers to throw to and that should set up the run quite nicely for Martin. The Panthers defensive-line is above average, but I think if Doug Martin struggles a bit they will set up some screens for him, I'm not worried at all. I have Lacy down at RB10, I like him a lot this year but I'm not betting on big numbers vs Seattle in week one. I am pretty low on Montee Ball at RB11. I want to see elite production out of him before he gets an elite ranking. I'm not completely sold on him as a feature back yet.
Reggie Bush is my RB14 in standard. He looked great in the preseason and I am one of a few that remains confident in his ability this year and I still think there is room for both he and Joique Bell. I am pretty high on both Chris Johnson (RB16) and Chris Ivory (RB34) of the Jets. I think the Jets win big here vs OAK and both Jets running backs get plenty of touches. CJ2K can be a headache, but I'm taking the gamble here.
I'm low on Le'Veon Bell in week one. LeGarrette Blount likely gets the goal line carries and Cleveland should be pretty good with defensive HC Mike Pettine in place. As a result I am among the highest on Blount as well at RB38. I am currently the ONLY person to have Ahmad Bradshaw (RB36) ahead of Trent Richardson (RB41).
Richardson continued to play like garbage and I think Bradshaw is pretty good still. If they give Richardson 10 carries early and he is running with a 2.5 YPC, I think Bradshaw ends up with 15+ touches.
Week 1 Wide Receivers Rankings Analysis
No real surprises here until we get to Michael Crabtree at WR8. If you read the quarterback section, that shouldn't be much surprise. I am also really high on fellow 49er Anquan Boldin at WR26. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Crabtree ends with over 150 yards. I'm with the consensus on Jordy Nelson at WR9, so don't be scared off by the Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers is my QB7 so while low for him, that means its still a solid game. There is a good chance Jordy gets a touchdown.
I am pretty high on both Julio Jones (WR3) and Roddy White (WR12), as well as Marques Colston (WR17). The Falcons-Saints game should be a high scoring affair, get in on it if you can. I'm a little worried about the Giants as a whole, but Victor Cruz is my WR15 based on talent and being the clear top target in that offense. The Giants looked out of sync in the preseason so be warned.
Eric Decker is my WR20 and I'm pretty excited to see what he and Geno can do vs the Raiders. I have a feeling Decker will get a ton of targets. Wes Welker is my WR22. I am not high on him as a whole but if he plays in week one, he is going to have a big game. I can adjust later if we find out otherwise. I am very low on Cordarrelle Patterson (WR32). The Rams are my number one defense this week so I'm playing wait-and-see with Patterson. His expected huge season might have to wait another week for the big coming out.
Deeper down, I expect Mike Wallace to face plenty of Revis in week one, so at WR46, I'm avoiding at all costs despite an optimistic outlook for him on the season. Steve Smith (WR43), Malcom Floyd (WR51) and Denarius Moore (WR53) or other late receivers I am high on. Pretty simply, I expect all three to be starters which means they should see a significant number of targets. They don't have the appeal of other starters, but in a deep league, sometimes all you can go for is guaranteed targets.
Lastly, Sammy Watkins is my WR63. If you drafted him, sorry. By all accounts he has been outplayed by Robert Woods and Mike Williams this preseason. If he is the third best receiver in week one for the Bills, no thanks. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think he's ready to be a big part of the offense.
Week 1 Tight End Rankings Analysis
Travis Kelce is my TE9. This is another guy I have been talking up this preseason and without Dwayne Bowe in week one it is very hard for me to imagine a scenario where Kelce doesn't get a lot of targets. I've said it a few times before, but he is my Jordan Cameron of this year. That prediction will be put to the test this week.
I'm pretty low on Jason Witten (TE14) against the 49ers. I might bring him up a bit, but its not a great matchup. For 2TE leagues, I really like Jace Amaro. Again, I'm expecting a big win for the Jets and I think Amaro should be a big red zone threat in an offense of pretty bad receivers outside of Eric Decker.
I'm also very low on Ladarius Green at TE24. For whatever reason, the Cardinals were historically bad vs tight ends last year. Clearly I'm not buying into that continuing, but if it does I'll regret this a lot. I just think Gates is still the guy here (though he isn't very high himself) and I want to see Green get a lot of targets before I feel good about him as fantasy-relevant on a weekly basis.
Week 1 Defense Rankings Analysis
The Rams are my number one defense in week one, and I am not alone in that thinking. They are a consensus top 3 defense vs the Vikings. The defensive line is ridiculously stacked. It already was actually, and now they have Aaron Donald who has supposedly looked fantastic. They had five different players with at least five sacks last year and grabbed the best defensive lineman in the draft besides Clowney. That is terrifying. If Matt Cassel isn't having nightmares, he will be after the game.
The Seahawks continue to be the premier defense, and even against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, I have them at #2. In Seattle, I don't think I'll ever bet against them. The Jets are my #3 and the perfect streaming option. They are another team with an excellent defensive line that can only be licking their chops at the idea of going against a rookie QB making his debut. Their secondary is horrible but if the defensive line is as good as it should be, it won't matter.
I own either the Rams or the Jets in all of my leagues for week one. I'm also big on the Buccaneers at #5. The Panthers O-line has some big question marks and Gerald McCoy is one of the best defensive lineman in the game. I like that matchup and I like the Bucs defense as a whole with Lovie Smith around. The Texans are also high at #6. Another strong defensive line vs a quarterback that looked pretty uncomfortable in a new offense. I like my chances. In deeper leagues, I like the Vikings as well. They also added a defensive head coach while their opponent, the Rams, are going with Shaun Hill at quarterback. You can do worse.
Week 1 Kicker Rankings Analysis
Kickers are so unpredictable on a weekly basis that I don't plan on writing about them much, if at all. That said, kickers in great offenses are usually the best bets, as Matt Prater last year and Stephen Gostkowski on a yearly basis can attest.
Well the Broncos are still an excellent offense yet everyone is ignoring their current starting kicker, Brandon McManus. He doesn't have to be great, but in week one he can get 5+ XPs and probably a field goal or two. If your league penalizes for missed kicks, I might avoid, but if not, this guy needs to be owned. I would be very surprised if he isn't a top 10 kicker in week one.
The same goes for the Saints kicker, whoever that may be. No, honestly, the Saints don't have a kicker right now. They released both guys they had during the preseason so as of this writing I don't even know who their kicker will be. Both the Saints and Broncos are the best bets to score 40+ which means a minimum of 7-8 points for their kickers and a high floor is what I look for.
That wraps up my fantasy football rankings analysis for Week One. There may end up being some bad calls here, but for the most part I am feeling really good about Week One (probably a mistake). I would love to read your comments on where you agree/disagree below. Good luck RotoBallers!
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
