Fantasy Baseball Sell-Highs: Early-Season Overachievers to Trade Away?

May 21, 2026

Joey's fantasy baseball sell-highs, overvalued players to consider trading away. These hitters and pitchers have overperformed early and may bust going forward.

There have been some unexpected players who have turned into fantasy superstars in the early portion of the 2026 season. Jordan Walker has become a top fantasy outfielder, Munetaka Murakami ranks toward the top of the league in home runs, and Drake Baldwin has settled into a top fantasy catcher. While all three of those players project well moving forward, some players are overperforming in the early going.

This article will highlight the six biggest early-season overachievers. These six players are off to nice starts in fantasy, but some negative regression is headed their way in the coming weeks. This list will feature three hitters and three pitchers, and all six players are clear sell-high candidates in Week 8 of the fantasy baseball season.

Let's dive into the best sell-high candidates.

Randy Arozarena, OF, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena has been a strong all-around fantasy option to begin the 2026 season. He is slashing .300/.386/.450 with four home runs, 13 doubles, 19 RBI, and 12 stolen bases across 50 games and has been on another level at the plate recently. Arozarena is batting .409 (18-for-44) with one home run, seven RBI, and four stolen bases in his last 12 games dating back to May 8.

However, the two-time All-Star has been one of the biggest overachievers early on. His expected batting average (.250) is 50 points lower than his actual batting average (.300), and his expected slugging (.386) is 86 points lower than his actual slugging (.450). Both his 50-point batting average difference and 86-point slugging difference are the fifth-biggest differences among all hitters.

On top of those poor expected numbers, Arozarena ranks in the 30th percentile in barrel rate (6%), 24th percentile in bat speed (70.4 mph), 32nd percentile in chase rate (32.5%), and 52nd percentile in xwOBA (.352). Those are all telling signs that his numbers will eventually drop. This is a hitter who has hit under .240 in back-to-back seasons, and his bat speed is down 1.9 mph from last year.

That makes Arozarena the perfect sell-high candidate.

Mickey Moniak, OF, Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies outfielder Mickey Moniak has been a draft-day steal in the early going. After starting the season on the 10-day injured list due to a right ring finger sprain, Moniak has made a big impact offensively across his first 41 games. The lefty slugger is slashing .290/.346/.628 with 12 home runs, nine doubles, and 28 RBI in 159 plate appearances this year.

But it's hard to imagine Moniak keeping up these elite numbers for the rest of the season. He's due for some massive regression over the next few weeks. His expected batting average (.235) is 55 points lower than his actual batting average (.290), and his expected slugging (.628) is 144 points lower than his actual slugging (.484). That 144-point slugging difference is the worst among all qualified hitters to begin the season.

7th of the year for Mickey ‼️ pic.twitter.com/0yX9Bqsuf5

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) April 23, 2026

Those expecting Moniak to keep this up should think twice. He is clearly overperforming, and both his hard-hit rate (41.7%) and average exit velocity (89.6 mph) rank around league average. Therefore, it's best to trade the Rockies outfielder now while his fantasy value is so high. It might be downhill for him in the next few weeks with a bottom 5% chase rate (41.4%).

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has been in a groove at the plate for most of the year. He's batting .276 with eight home runs, eight doubles, and 27 RBI across 50 games, and he's part of the reason Atlanta sits in first place in the National League East. Albies is honestly showing signs of his 2023 All-Star self when he hit .280 with 33 home runs and 109 RBI just a few years ago.

Ozzie, we love him!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/sPk2Wf3Qmm

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 5, 2026

Unfortunately, though, Albies is one of the bigger sell-highs in fantasy at this point in the season. The switch-hitting second baseman has gotten a little bit lucky at the plate early on, as he ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in average exit velocity (86.4 mph), barrel rate (4.2%), hard-hit rate (26.5%), bat speed (68.8 mph), and chase rate (36%).

Albies not hitting the ball hard or barreling it at a high clip are major warning signs going forward. We are also already seeing the three-time All-Star cool off a bit at the plate. He is just 6-for-49 (.122 batting average) with zero extra-base hits and four RBI over his last 13 games, and his expected slugging sits at .373 on the season.

So, make the smart move and move off Albies in all fantasy leagues.

Michael Soroka, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

There have been very few pitchers more consistent in fantasy through the first two months than Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Michael Soroka. Outside of an eight-run clunker against the Milwaukee Brewers on April 30, Soroka has been nails on the mound. He currently owns a 3.49 ERA and 55 strikeouts across 49 innings and has allowed just three runs in his last 18 1/3 innings of work.

While Soroka has been a solid SP3 for fantasy managers, it's time to jump ship. His expected ERA (4.79) is 130 points higher than his actual ERA (3.49), and his other metrics don't really back up his strong numbers. Both his batting average against (.273) and barrel rate (10.1%) rank in the bottom half of the league.

It might be hard to part ways with Soroka because he has been really good on the mound, but his metrics tell a whole different story. With the right-hander set for some regression, now is the best time to trade him away. He has a 1.33 WHIP in his nine outings, and opposing batters' Pull AIR rate against him sits at a below-average 20.3%, which suggests he could see major regression at the hands of the long ball.

Michael McGreevy, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Michael McGreevy's start against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night was not his best. He allowed three runs on 10 hits with one walk and one strikeout across five innings. Those three runs marked just the third time all season he has allowed at least three runs in a start, and his 10 hits allowed were a season-high.

Spencer Horwitz, take a lap‼️ pic.twitter.com/4alQELGZFu

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 21, 2026

Despite how well McGreevy has pitched to begin the 2026 season, Wednesday's outing could be a sign of what's to come for the right-hander. He came into this start with the biggest ERA (2.10) and expected ERA (5.79) differences, the biggest wOBA (.250) and expected wxOBA (.372) differences, and the second-biggest batting average (.189) and expected batting average (.288) differences.

There's no way around it; McGreevy has gotten extremely lucky on the mound. His whiff rate (19.9%) and strikeout rate (18.8%) both rank poorly, and his barrel rate (11.2%) ranks in the 17th percentile. That makes now the best time to trade away the Cardinals pitcher. It would be more surprising to see McGreevy maintain a sub-3.00 ERA than it would be to see his ERA climb into the 4.50 territory.

Nick Martinez, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is posting the best numbers of his career in his ninth major league season. He has a 1.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts in his first nine starts. Some of his best outings have included a seven-shutout inning performance against the Guardians on April 28 and a six-shutout game with four strikeouts against the Marlins in his most recent start.

But like the two other pitchers on this list, Martinez is slightly overperforming on the mound. His expected ERA sits at 3.88, and his expected batting average against (.257), whiff rate (18.5%), and strikeout rate (16.2%) all rank in the bottom 30% of the league. That signals some regression could be headed his way in the short term.

Martinez is simply not going to pitch this well all year. He doesn't miss many bats with his six-pitch mix, and his breaking ball has been a liability despite his positive numbers. The 35-year-old has a -3 Breaking Run Value on Baseball Savant to begin the season.

While Martinez could settle into a 3.20 to 3.80 ERA pitcher this season, trading him now ensures you get the most value for a pitcher who could eventually turn into a streamer later in the year. The Rays pitcher has only made more than 20 starts in a season just once over his last six MLB campaigns.

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