MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 5/6/26)

May 6, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 5/6/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange - see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

Welcome back to another full-slate betting breakdown! Wednesdays bring us a nice combination of afternoon and evening action, and today's slate has no shortage of targetable games either. Last week, we hit on the majority of the bets in this piece, which is a blend of game bets and player props for today's MLB contests.

If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are also someone who bets on baseball pretty regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (+103)

Only one NRFI pick for me today, and it's one that we are getting at plus odds on Novig. We have a really good pitching matchup in the Bronx tonight as Will Warren (who has been outstanding this year) faces off against the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi.

Eovaldi pitched well in his last start against the Yankees, shutting them out over seven innings with seven strikeouts. It's always a gamble going against this powerful Yankee lineup in the first inning when we know Aaron Judge will definitely hit, but Eovaldi is good enough to get through a clean first. Warren has been very good early in games this year, too.

MLB First 5 Innings Bets

Minnesota F5 Money Line (-115)

The Twins hung 11 runs on the Nationals yesterday...and that was against their best starter, Cade Cavalli. Today, they'll face Miles Mikolas and his bloated 8.23 ERA, while rolling out Bailey Ober on the mound as their starter.

Brooks Lee drives in 3 to help Minnesota win 11-3 over Washington! pic.twitter.com/xxCAZ1sH9Y

— MLB Zone (@MLB_Zone1) May 6, 2026

Ober has turned it around lately after a slow start. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The Nats' bats are slumping at the plate, too, making this spot even more appealing as I think Minnesota has a massive edge here on both offense and at starting pitcher.

MLB Team Total Bets

St. Louis Cardinals OVER 3.5 Total Runs (-135)

I was all over this bet yesterday, and then the game got postponed. Unfortunately, the odds went up a bit since then, but I'm still big on this Cardinals offense today against Brandon Sproat of the Brewers. The Cards have scored four or more runs in six of their last eight games, while Sproat has allowed four or more runs already in half of his starts this year.

Chicago Cubs OVER 4.5 Total Runs (+103)

We are getting plus odds on the Cubs scoring five runs today, something they have done in six of their last eight games. Over the last two weeks, Chicago ranks fourth in MLB in wRC+ against RHP at 132, and they'll face Brady Singer of the Reds, who has a 5.57 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Bank on the Cubbies left-handers to tee off on Singer, who simply isn't missing bats this year with a 8.2% SwStr%

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Bryan Woo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)

I was able to hit George Kirby under 5.5K yesterday, so I am going back to that spot tonight against Atlanta with Woo here this afternoon. Woo's strikeouts have evaporated this season, as he has just a 17.5% K% and 10% SwStr%. He's failed to get six strikeouts now in four of his six starts, and the Braves just aren't whiffing enough for him to get there without something fluky happening with called strikes today.

Eury Perez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Eury has been a bit of a mess with his run prevention, but his strikeouts have stabilized, with 6+ in three straight starts and four of his last five. Baltimore strikes out quite a bit against RHP, and Perez's raw stuff is still some of the best in the big leagues, demonstrated by his 13.5% SwStr%.

Paul Skenes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Skenes has not been the strikeout monster this year that he was last year, but there's still a lot to like here about his 29% K% and 5% BB%. We rarely get him at 5.5, and the Snakes are whiffing at a 22.6% rate over the last two weeks. I think he'll be efficient enough today to go six innings, and therefore, he should have a six-strikeout floor with his talent and control alone.

Joey Cantillo over 4.5 Strikeouts (+111)

Here's my risky pick of the day! Cantillo has gone under this number in two straight starts. However, his overall numbers still look pretty good under the hood (11.5% SwStr%. 82.6% Z-Contact%), and he'll face six righties in the KC lineup today, which bodes well for him as he's been better against RHP this season in terms of strikeout rate (25% vs. 21% against lefties).

Let's not forget that he got nine Royals already once this season, and five is very doable for a strikeout pitcher of his caliber!

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