WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 12 (2025)

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 12 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 12 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We're in the double-digit weeks of the season, with a large sample of the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.

How to Use The WR/CB Chart

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 12 sorted alphabetically. The Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, and Commanders have a bye week during Week 12. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded) or injured player (orange text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.

We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows team offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Dallas Cowboys.

The visual below shows offenses from the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings.

The visual below shows offenses from the New England Patriots to the Tennessee Titans.

Best Projected Week 12 WR/CB Matchups

Worst Projected Week 12 WR/CB Matchups

Week 12 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

DK Metcalf vs. Nahshon Wright

Aaron Rodgers suffered a wrist fracture in his non-throwing hand in Week 11, which might make this a messier game in Week 12. However, Metcalf's usage should provide some confidence, with a 40.6 percent air yards share and 26.3 percent first-read target share, translating to 1.91 yards per route run.

Calvin Austin III was the only other Steelers' pass catcher with a 30 percent air yards share and nearly a 20 percent first-read target share. The Steelers tied for the ninth-highest neutral game script pass rate (60 percent), yet they rank 24th in seconds per snap since Week 6, suggesting they tend to run plays at a slow pace.

The Steelers' offense will face the Bears' pass defense, which deploys man coverage at the ninth-highest rate, while allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, the Bears' defense allows the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage. That's where Metcalf has been thriving, against zone coverage.

Metcalf ranks second on the team in target per route rate (26 percent), tying him with Kenneth Gainwell and behind Jaylen Warren (30 percent). Besides Warren, Metcalf leads the team in yards per route run against zone coverage, which supports the upgraded matchup. Mason Rudolph might be checking the ball down to the running backs and Metcalf to attack the Bears.

Specifically, the Bears deploy Cover 2 at the fourth-highest rate. Pat Freiermuth (26 percent) and Jonnu Smith (27 percent) lead the Bears in target per route rate, though several of their top pass catchers average over 2.00 yards per route run, as seen below. Freiermuth produces a whopping 5.53 yards per route run, a team high, against Cover 2.

Though Metcalf doesn't earn targets at a high rate (18 percent) against Cover 2, he produces 3.82 yards per route run, which might regress based on his expected fantasy points per route. Furthermore, the Bears' pass defense has been vulnerable to deep passes, allowing the third-most fantasy points per dropback and the fourth-highest against deep zone targets.

Rodgers tends to throw the ball quickly, averaging the lowest air yards per pass attempt, tying him with Dillon Gabriel. Rudolph's air yards per pass attempt have been even lower than Rodgers in a smaller sample. However, when the Steelers' quarterbacks attempt deep passes, Metcalf and Austin tie for a 50 percent first-read target share, with Metcalf being the top producer (3.18) in yards per route run among the highly used options.

Nahshon Wright projects to line up with Metcalf, who allows the eighth-most fantasy points per route run. If Tyrique Stevenson misses Week 12, the Bears' secondary will continue needing to dig into their depth. There's some risk in relying upon a Steelers' pass catcher, but Metcalf should produce like a WR2 in Week 12.

Christian Watson vs. Byron Murphy Jr.

Since Week 8, when Watson returned, he ran a route on 71.9 percent of the team's dropbacks. Watson and Romeo Doubs (74 percent) were the only Packers' pass catchers with a route rate at 70 percent or higher since Week 8. For context, the Packers lost Tucker Kraft during that stretch. However, the Packers trust Doubs and Watson as their top two receivers.

The visual above displays the season-long data, but it nearly matches the metrics from Week 8 for Doubs and the other Packers' pass catchers. Since Week 8, Doubs has garnered a 26 percent target rate, 25 percent first-read target share, and 32.8 percent air yards share.

The Packers face a Vikings' pass defense that deploys zone coverage at the 15th-highest rate while allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback. Under Brian Flores, the Vikings have been using two-high coverages at the highest percentage (68.5 percent), 10 percentage points above the Chargers, in second place. Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense tied for the 12th-most fantasy points per dropback when utilizing two-high looks.

Watson has been an efficient producer against man (2.77 yards per route) and zone (2.11 yards per route), although his usage can be volatile. Specifically, against two-high looks, Doubs leads the team with a 30 percent target rate since Week 8. Interestingly, Josh Jacobs ranks second on the team with a 23 percent target rate versus two-high coverages.

Watson ranks third, with a 16.2 percent first-read target share when facing two-high looks, trailing Dontayvion Wicks (21.1 percent) and Doubs (24.3 percent). The Vikings' pass defense can be vulnerable against deep passes of 20 or more yards downfield, allowing the most fantasy points per dropback. That's typically where Watson thrives.

When there's a deep pass, the Vikings' defense shifts to be more man-heavy (10th-highest) in their coverage while allowing the most fantasy points per dropback. Watson rocks a 51.5 percent air yards share on deep passes with a whopping 53.8 percent first-read target share. That suggests Watson could have a boom performance in Week 12.

However, it's worth noting that Watson projects to face Byron Murphy Jr., who allows the 46th-most fantasy points per route run and the 48th-most yards per route run. The Vikings' secondary ranks 30th in team coverage grade, making them a team to attack through the air.

Watson might be more of a WR4 or flex option in deeper leagues, but the usage and matchup likely align for a light version of Jameson Williams in the Packers' offense.

Luther Burden III vs. Brandin Echols (Steelers' Slot Cornerback)

We love small samples, especially when it's a rookie receiver that possesses the juice. Burden ran 20 routes in back-to-back games in Weeks 10 and 11. Meanwhile, Olamide Zaccheaus ran 28-30 routes in Weeks 8-10 before dipping to seven routes in Week 11. Burden tied for second on the Bears with a 17.9 percent target share, tying him with Cole Kmet.

Burden has been earning targets at a high rate while producing yards on a per-route basis, while running only 30.8 percent of the team's routes. Unfortunately, Burden only has four games where he ran 10 or more routes, but the route percentage was a season-high in Week 11, as shown below. We provide that context because Burden remains a risky start and more of a player to stash in fantasy leagues.

The Bears face a Steelers' defense running man coverage at the sixth-highest rate while allowing the 24th-most fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Steelers' defense deploys single-high coverages at the fourth-highest rate, and gives up the 31st-most fantasy points per dropback.

Small sample alert of 17 routes against man coverage. However, Burden leads the Bears in Average Separation Score, win rate, and ranks second in yards per route run when facing man coverage. Burden lacks the minimum threshold of 10 routes against single-high looks. Unsurprisingly, Rome Odunze boasts a team-high first-read target share (27.1 percent), target rate (25 percent), and air yards share (39.2 percent) against single-high coverages.

Burden projects to face Brandin Echols, though he left with an ankle injury in Week 11, potentially making it an even friendlier matchup for whichever Bears' receiver faces the Steelers' primary slot cornerback. Echols has been allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per route and the fifth-highest yards per route run. As a team, the Steelers' defense allows the seventh-highest fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot.

The tricky part might be volume, since the Bears rank 27th in neutral game script pass rate in Weeks 6-11. That's similar to the Panthers and Browns. We might see limited volume from two offenses that use a slower pace, especially with the Bears' offense becoming more run-heavy.

Burden lands here since we're expecting Week 12 to be a potential breakout performance for the rookie, assuming the Bears continue mixing him in more than Zaccheaus.

Week 12 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Jayden Higgins vs. Tre'Davious White

Higgins has seen slightly more usage each week for the Texans. Unfortunately, Higgins has only seen a game with a 50 percent route rate in two out of nine games. In Week 8, Nico Collins missed due to an injury, coinciding with Higgins's season-high in route percentage and first-read target share. Higgins has been teasing us on a per-route basis, but he lacks consistent usage.

On the season, Higgins ranks sixth on the team among the primary pass catchers in route percentage, with the rest of his receiving advanced metrics looking ugly. Higgins has a lowly 11.6 percent first-read target share, 18 percent target per route rate, and 1.31 yards per route run. Collins and Dalton Schultz lead the Texans' passing offense, with Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk also mixing in.

The Bills' pass defense allows the 13th-fewest fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage (No. 17). They also deploy the seventh-highest rate of two-high looks while allowing the 24th-most fantasy points per dropback, suggesting the Bills' defense tends to limit opposing offenses with two-high coverages.

Higgins rocks a team-high win rate and an above-average Separation Score against man coverage. However, Higgins hardly produces with 1.25 yards per route run while earning a target on 21 percent of his routes versus zone coverage. Collins and Schultz tend to be the better producers for the Texans when they face two-high coverages like the Bills often deploy.

Higgins garners a 19 percent target rate and produces under yards per route run (0.92) against two-high coverages. The second wide receiver spot for the Texans feels somewhat like the Packers, where they're fine with mixing in several beyond their top pass catcher.

The Bills' secondary ranks 20th in team coverage grades and allows the 23rd-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers, where Higgins lines up. Higgins projects to face Tre'Davious White, who allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per route and the third-lowest yards per route run. 

We've learned to trust the receiver's usage, regardless of the matchup. However, we expect the Texans' passing offense to struggle beyond Collins and Schultz, leading to a downgraded matchup for Higgins after having some optimism for the rookie to close the season.

Jordan Addison vs. Keisean Nixon

Addison was in the WR/CB Matchup Upgrade section in Week 11, yet now he fell into the downgrade section since he faces a Packers' secondary that ranks second in team coverage grade behind the Rams. Part of the Vikings' passing inefficiencies seems to be J.J. McCarthy. The Packers' defense brings pressure at the 11th-highest rate.

When pressured, McCarthy ranks 37th in adjusted yards per attempt, 16th in completion rate over expected (CPOE), and 37th in catchable target rate among 41 qualified quarterbacks. With McCarthy's poor passing efficiency, it leads to struggles and buy-low opportunities for the Vikings' top pass catchers.

Addison has been the secondary option for the Vikings' passing offense behind Justin Jefferson, so there should be WR3-type usage with WR2 upside in Addison's case. He faces a Packers' pass defense, which deploys zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate while allowing the 17th-most fantasy points per dropback.

Jefferson leads the team in target rate (27 percent) and yards per route run (2.56) against zone coverage, with Addison in second place. Addison boasts a 22 percent target rate while producing 1.96 yards per route run when facing zone coverage. Specifically, the Packers' pass defense deploys Cover 3 at the ninth-highest percentage.

Addison has the fourth-highest target rate and fourth-most yards per route run against Cover 3 among the Vikings' pass catchers, with 25 routes run. The Vikings may want to lean on Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson against the Packers' zone-heavy defense, though the Packers allow the sixth-lowest fantasy points per dropback on deep passes of 20 or more yards.

Addison thrives on deep passes, posting nearly identical numbers to Jefferson, with a 41 percent target rate and 5.19 yards per route run, shown above. Jefferson edges Addison in target rate and a similar air yards share while producing efficiently in yards per route run.

Addison faces Keisean Nixon, who allows the 59th-most fantasy points per route and the 51st-highest yards per route in coverage. Addison's main issue appears to be McCarthy's passing efficiency, which is hindered by a lack of catchable targets and, hopefully, better outcomes when pressured.

Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Jaylen Watson

The Chiefs' pass defense ranks third-best in team coverage grades. Pittman leads the Colts' pass catchers in usage via expected fantasy points. He has been one of the most efficient pass catchers, nearly averaging four points above expectation. The emergence of Alec Pierce and rookie Tyler Warren has caused inconsistent usage and production for Pittman.

The Chiefs' pass defense allows the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback while using zone coverage. Meanwhile, the Chiefs deploy two-high looks at the sixth-highest rate and allow the 18th-most fantasy points per route. When opposing defenses use two-high coverages, Josh Downs (26 percent), Warren (22 percent), and Pittman (24 percent) lead the Colts in target per route rate.

Interestingly, Pittman boasts the best yards per route run against two-high coverage, with him and Warren leading the team in first-read target share. The Colts and Chiefs game projects as one of four games with a high-end total of 48-50 points as the over/under.

It's a strength against strength matchup, with the Chiefs' defense boasting the seventh-highest pressure rate. Meanwhile, the Colts' offensive line allows the sixth-lowest pressure rate. Daniel Jones ranks fifth in catchable target rate and third in adjusted yards per attempt when pressured.

Jones tends to target Downs at the highest rate (23 percent) when pressured, as seen below. Warren (15 percent), Jonathan Taylor (13 percent), and Pittman (11 percent) round out the other top options, though Pittman has a team-low 0.55 yards per route run when Jones faces pressure.

Pittman projects to face Jaylen Watson, who allows the fourth-lowest fantasy points per route and the 11th-lowest yards per route run. The Chiefs' pass defense allows the 25th-most fantasy points per game to receivers out wide, where Pittman primarily lines up. Be cautious in Week 12, though Pittman might be started because of byes and injuries as a WR3. 

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