MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/19/2025)

September 19, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/19/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Sal Stewart, Dylan Beavers, Jackson Merrill, and Gabriel Moreno.

It is a typically large slate for this Friday, September 19, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups as well as some solid parks where home runs are more prevalent. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, September 19, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/19/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, September 19:

• Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds
• Dylan Beavers, Baltimore Orioles
• Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres
• Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks

Sal Stewart OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+428 DraftKings)

We are going to kick today’s article off with Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds. Many of you may be asking who Sal Stewart is, and that is quite alright, as he was recently called up by the Reds at the end of August and is on an absolute tear. 

Over the previous two weeks, Stewart has smacked four home runs while posting an OPS of 1.058. While only one home run has come off a left-handed pitcher, he has posted an OPS of 1.000 against them across his first five PA, and has also hit one home run. I know the plate appearance number is incredibly low, but the matchup against Shota Imanaga is pretty solid, which we will get to shortly. Overall, Stewart has posted solid power metrics as well.

He currently has a hard hit rate of 50%, which ranks him at the top of the league. He also has an average exit velocity of 95.4 mph, ranking him in the top 1% of the league. Quite frankly, he has been mashing since getting the call.

Imanaga, on the other hand, while pitching relatively well, is still susceptible to the long ball. On the season, he has allowed a total of 26 home runs, with 23 of them coming against right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a ton of hard contact. His 82.7 mph average exit velocity allowed ranks him in the bottom third of the league. He has also allowed 26.8% of baseballs to be hot 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 13% of the league. Lastly, Imanaga has allowed a whopping 10 home runs over his previous seven starts, with three multi-HR games allowed.

SAL IS FIRED UP 🔥

Sal Stewart cracks his first Major League home run 412 feet! pic.twitter.com/tHCDFfTmpH

— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2025

Dylan Beavers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)

We have another August call-up with an opportunity to go deep tonight in Baltimore Orioles outfielder Dylan Beavers. Beavers has been raking recently, as he now has two home runs and an OPS of .886 over the previous week. 

While the advanced power metrics leave something to be desired, he has hit right-handed pitching rather well since being called up in mid-August. This is noted by the fact that he has posted an OPS of .924 with two home runs across his first 83 PA against them. He has also hit very well at home, as evidenced by his 1.036 OPS at Camden Yards.

He will be up against New York Yankees’ right-hander Will Warren, who has had his struggles allowing the long ball. On the season, Warren has allowed a total of 19 home runs, 12 of which have come off the bats of left-handed hitters. He has also given up plenty of hard contact this season.

Warren has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.4 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 8% of the league. He has also allowed 27.4% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 11% of the league. Lastly, Warren has posted a 6% Barrels/BBE mark, which ranks him in the bottom 10% of the league. He has also pitched poorly on the road, as noted by his 5.81 ERA away from Yankee Stadium.

Jackson Merrill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+433 DraftKings)

In our next home run candidate, we have a more well-known name in Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres. Merrill started the season slowly, but has come on strong in recent weeks. Over the previous 21 days, Merrill has posted an OPS of 1.001 with five home runs. He has also been especially hot over the previous week with four home runs and a 1.235 OPS.

Due to his slow start, his power metrics are still lacking across several categories, but he does have a solid Barrels/PA mark of 8.9%, which ranks him in the top 9% of the league. He has also hit right-handed pitching very well this season, as noted by his .838 OPS with 12 of his 14 home runs coming against them. This should make for a good matchup against White Sox right-hander Davis Martin.

Martin has allowed a total of 20 home runs in 2025, with 12 of these coming off left-handed bats. He has also looked pretty rough in the power metrics department. Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 84.6 mph, ranking him in the bottom 1% of the league. He has also allowed a Barrels/BBE mark of 7.2%, which ranks him in the bottom 2% of the league. Additionally, Martin has allowed 28.3% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 7% of the league.

Martin has also struggled recently, as he has allowed multiple home runs in two of his previous five starts. He has also given up 1.6 HR/9 at home compared to a 1.1 mark on the road. This should be a solid spot for Merrill to go yard, especially when you consider that the White Sox pen has also allowed a total of 71 home runs on the season, ranking them in the bottom half of the league.

Jackson Merrill joins the home run party 😤 pic.twitter.com/MKALV00f9g

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

Gabriel Moreno OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+760 DraftKings)

Gabriel Moreno is another long shot option, as noted by his odds, but the matchup and recency look pretty solid. Over the previous two weeks, Moreno has posted an OPS of 1.024 with two home runs. He has also posted solid power metrics on the season.

Overall, Moreno has a hard hit rate of 36.3%, which ranks him in the top quartile of the league. He also has a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the top 26% of the league. Moreno also loves hitting at home, where he has posted an OPS of .825 on the season.

He will be up against Phillies’ right-hander Walker Buehler, who has fallen a long way since his days with the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the season, Buehler has allowed a total of 22 home runs, with 14 coming off the bats of right-handed hitters. He has also given up a decent amount of hard contact, as noted by his 5.4% Barrels/BBE mark that ranks him in the bottom 27% of the league. He has also allowed 24.3% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 39% of the league.

Recency has also been unkind to Buehler, as he has given up three home runs in his previous four starts. When he is done, he will give way to a Phillies’ bullpen that has allowed a total of 69 home runs, which ranks them at the threshold of being in the bottom half of the league. 

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