MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/5/2025)

September 5, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/5/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ian Happ, Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story, and Jazz Chisholm.

It is a typically large, full-to-be-exact slate for this Friday, September 5, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups as well as some solid parks where home runs are more prevalent. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, September 5, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/5/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, September 5:

• Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
• Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees

Ian Happ OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)

We are going to kick today's article off with a play in the afternoon game at Wrigley Field, which is always a fun place to start on Fridays. Ian Happ has been absolutely raking over the previous week, having posted an OPS of 1.341 with three home runs. The power surge is not all that surprising, as he now has a total of 19 home runs on the season and is on pace to come in around 23 home runs.

The power metrics for Happ are also pretty solid. Overall, he has posted an average exit velocity of 89.7 mph, which ranks him in the top 42% of the league. He has also posted a superb hard hit rate of 36.5%, ranking him in the top quartile of the league. Additionally, Happ has posted a Barrels/PA mark of 8.7%, which is good enough to rank him in the top 34% of the league. Happ has also done well at home, where he has an OPS of .754.

Today, he will be up against Washington Nationals' right-hander Jake Irvin, who has seen his fair share of struggles this season. Overall, Irvin has allowed a total of 31 home runs. Of the 31 home runs allowed, 20 have come off the bats of left-handed hitters, like Happ. He has also struggled in terms of the metrics.

Irvin has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.9 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 7% of the league. He has also allowed a whopping 30.4% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 2% of the league. Recency has also not been good for Irvin, as he has allowed a total of nine home runs across his previous seven starts. He has also allowed multiple home runs in three of those seven starts.

Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings)

Next up, we have Freddie Freeman, who has also been rather hot in recent weeks. Over the previous two weeks, Freeman has posted an OPS of .887 while smacking three home runs. He has also hit a total of 18 home runs on the season while having an OPS of .865. He is not the most likely candidate to go deep tonight, but we are getting pretty solid odds on a guy with solid power metrics.

Overall, he has posted a hard hit rate of 38.5%, which ranks him in the top 14% of the league. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, ranking him in the top 18% of the league. His Barrels/PA mark also sits at 7%, which ranks him in the top 30% of the league. He will be up against Orioles' right-hander Dean Kremer, which is also good news for Freeman, as he has an OPS of .876 vs. righties on the season.

Kremer, meanwhile, has struggled against left-handed hitters as he has allowed 13 of his 21 total home runs against them. The metrics do not look great, either. Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 82 mph, which ranks him near the bottom half of the league. He has also allowed a 1.4 HR/9 mark at home compared to a mark of 1.0 on the road.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)

Trevor Story might be one of my favorite home run props of the night. He has hit a total of 23 home runs this season and has been hot recently. Over the previous week, he has posted a .937 OPS with two home runs. He has actually been hot over the previous 21 days as well, having posted an OPS of .878 with five home runs.

The power metrics tell us he ranks inside the top 19% in terms of average exit velocity with a mark of 91.2 mph. He also ranks inside the top 22% of hitters in terms of hard hit rate with a mark of 36.8%. He tends to hit left-handers like Eduardo Rodriguez quite well, as he has posted an OPS of .757 against them this season with six home runs.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, has struggled in the power allowed department. Overall, he has allowed a total of 21 home runs, 17 of which have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a 1.6 HR/9 mark at home, which is slightly worse than his 1.4 HR/9 allowed at home. While his power metrics are not all that awful, he has allowed 23.2% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him near the bottom half of the league.

It's called the Pesky Pole for a reason!

Trevor Story lines this ball down the right field line for a home run! pic.twitter.com/4mZTytrbWx

— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2025

Jazz Chisholm OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+TBD DraftKings)

Jazz will likely be a popular play tonight, as he has been on an absolute power binge, having smacked six home runs while posting an OPS of 1.123 over the previous two weeks. This puts him at 28 home runs for the season and should not be all that surprising, given the metrics under the hood.

Jazz has put up a Barrels/PA mark of 9.6%, which ranks him in the top 6% of the league. He has also performed well against right-handed pitching, as noted by his OPS of .885. 24 of his 28 home runs have also come off right-handed pitching. He will be facing Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays, who has had his fair share of struggles this season.

Gausman has given up 20 home runs this season, and he does not discriminate, as both left-handed and right-handed hitters have each hit 10 home runs against him. He has given up an average exit velocity of 82.4 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 27% of the league. He has also allowed a Barrels/BBE mark of 5.4%, ranking him in the bottom quartile of the league.

UPDATE: Jazz injured his knees in the fourth inning last night; however, X-rays came back clean, and he hopes to be in the lineup tonight. Odds will be updated once posted.

Jazz with his SECOND home run of the night! pic.twitter.com/lsSTYl3dOh

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) September 3, 2025

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