Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Strategy: Should You Draft a QB Early in 2025?

September 2, 2025

John's fantasy football draft advice and strategy for quarterbacks. Should you pick a QB in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts in 2025? Read the expert tips and analysis.

The quarterback position is easily the highest-scoring position of all in fantasy football in normal standard and PPR leagues. The scoring rules allow for massive production from QBs, especially those with rushing upside, that sometimes can even double as a passing scorer and a low-end running back bound into one player.

For example, Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels passed for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 891 yards and six TDs in 17 games. His rushing production alone accounted for nearly 7.4 points per game, and he averaged 21.46 PPG. Only two players outscored him from other positions. Yet those are often outliers. Of the top-10 scoring fantasy players in 2025, six were quarterbacks. Nine of the top-15 were QBs. And the No. 1 scoring player every season is almost always a QB. But does that mean you should draft a QB early, or punt the position and wait for a gem?

Keep in mind -- this analysis is for 1QB leagues with 4-point passing TDs only. In 2QB leagues... yes, QB is the most important position, and you have to take one early. And in six-point pass TD leagues, passing is obviously more important as well. But if you're interested in normal PPR leagues, well, let's dive in!

Should You Draft A QB In The First Four Rounds?

To answer this question, we should first look at the quarterbacks that are routinely drafted inside the first three rounds of fantasy drafts in 2025. These would be Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.

All are expected to score over 20 fantasy points per game in 2024. Each did so in 2024. Upside is part of the argument here, though. It's not like each quarterback scores right around their average each game -- instead, their scores often vary wildly. And that's a good thing.

In individual matchups, games of 30 or more points from a quarterback are crucial. Games of 40 or more are massive, and games with 50 or more points are nearly insurmountable by other teams. Allen logged three games with 30 or more points, two of 40 or more, and one game with a massive 51.9 points.

Josh Allen scored 51.88 fantasy points on Sunday, the most by a QB in a single game…ever. pic.twitter.com/smXxiCoFcQ

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 9, 2024

Having a near guarantee that you'll win around three extra games, as long as the rest of your roster doesn't massively underperform, for lack of a better phrase, is a pretty nice thing to have. To have these players in the playoffs is also pretty important as well, as having a later-round quarterback that struggles in these weeks isn't great.

Additionally, with the new 17-game schedule, most fantasy championships are now played in the second-to-last week of action, which is far more important for eventual playoff seeding for actual teams. This means there aren't weird, fluky games where teams are pulling their starting quarterbacks, leaving you scrambling for substitutes.

Allen averaged 25.2 points per game, Jackson averaged 28.7 PPG, Daniels averaged 29.9, and Hurts averaged 23.3 per contest between Week 15 and Week 17. Last season, the best quarterbacks, bolstered by their rushing upside boosting their floors, were ultimately very clutch in the fantasy playoffs.

THE LAST TIME JAYDEN DANIELS PLAYED THE EAGLES… GAME-WINNING TD 🔥

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP 🔜

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/DE9KxJRPcm

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 19, 2025

Given that each of these players are on good squads that are expected to make the playoffs, and the reduced leg room to rest starters for the final two weeks heading into the playoffs (generally a bad idea) it's easy to assume that they could be saving their best for last.

There's data to support picking a quarterback high in your fantasy drafts. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts were in the top 15 of players on most ESPN fantasy playoff teams. Jayden Daniels was 25th, but battled through injuries. pic.twitter.com/QaE6a72pqC

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 31, 2025

And data suggests that sometimes it really is worth taking a QB early in drafts. Allen has been a stalwart of this list, having finished fifth in 2023. So it's reasonable that he's often the first quarterback off the board. But the Ravens offense was much improved in 2024 with the addition of running back Derrick Henry.

Taking a QB on a bad offense early probably isn't a good idea, but no QB from a bad offense is as highly rated as any of these guys. It's worth noting that if you take a QB in the first four rounds, data supports you always taking one with rushing upside. So you should probably skip Joe Burrow.

Should You Draft A QB In The Middle Rounds?

This is the place where I'd be the least likely to draft a QB. I've been burned plenty of times in the past choosing a QB between Rounds 5-8, because the value just isn't there. These QBs usually don't have much rushing upside, but are veteran QBs that just had a great passing season.

Unfortunately, even for some of the league's better QBs, passing volume and touchdown passes thrown in a season aren't very consistent year over year. It's not hard to find evidence for this. For example, QB Baker Mayfield threw 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns last season. He had never thrown for more than 28 TDs in a previous season.

Baker Mayfield best season before 2024:
-4,044 pass yards, 28 pass TD, 10 INT

Trevor Lawrence best season:
-4,113 pass yds, 25 TD, 8 INT (almost the same as Baker's)

Baker Mayfield w/Liam Coen:
-4,500 pass yards, 41 TD, 16 INT

Trevor Lawrence career best season incoming.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 28, 2025

An elite offensive coordinator coming into town, trading for or drafting a highly-touted wide receiver, having a much tougher schedule, losing key players on defense, and other things can heavily influence the passing volume of a quarterback. Injuries to key pass-catchers on the team can do the same.

Rushing volume, even if it's also a bit unstable, counts for more points than passing volume and pass TDs. A rushing yard counts for 2.5 times that of a passing yard, and a rush TD is six points compared to just four for a pass TD. Without that higher floor, QBs without rushing upside can see final-season outputs vary wildly.

Another part of the argument will be presented in the next section. It will apply to why you shouldn't draft a QB in the middle rounds.

Should You Draft A QB In The Late Rounds?

Taking a dart throw in a later-round QB with rushing upside is also an excellent strategy. The same goes for QBs that get offensive coordinator upgrades. And even if you don't do this -- there are almost always players finishing as QB1s that end up on waivers or as free agents.

In 2024, both Mayfield and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix were undrafted in a large percentage of leagues. Both finished inside the top 10 at the QB position. The also aforementioned Daniels was almost always taken in the eighth round and later, and finished as the overall QB5.

Jaxson Dart is this year’s Bo Nix.

Dart was PFF’s highest-graded passer in the entire NCAA in 2024 (91.9 Passing Grade).

He’s also mobile (7.4 rushing attempts per-game; qualifies as a “Konami Code” QB).

Dude is completing 75% of his passes & already has a rushing TD this… pic.twitter.com/J0saL1bjAd

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) August 17, 2025

In 2023, the same applied to San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy. He was almost universally undrafted, yet finished as the QB6 overall. This year, I expect that player to be New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart. He should be a waiver wire darling at some point after he starts.

Dart has rushing upside, is an excellent passer, is already better than Giants starting QB Russell Wilson (in my opinion), and though he doesn't have a ton of receiving talent to work with outside of WR Malik Nabers (back), he should be able to make it work.

Jaxson Dart is the QB1 in this year's class and it's not close. Best processor, best under pressure, underrated athlete, and highly advanced in the mental aspects of the game. His understanding of what to do is levels above Ward and Sanders, who will struggle against pressure.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 1, 2025

Dart showed major promise in the preseason, putting up big numbers and driving the offense down the field. He has sound decision-making abilities, a good enough arm, and a great pocket presence. He's my QB1 of the 2025 NFL Draft class, ahead of Cam Ward, and I expect him to take the starting job, so keep your eye out for him if you need QB help at some time this season!

Does Draft Position Matter For Drafting Quarterbacks?

Not much. It's hard to determine when leagues will draft quarterbacks, especially in home leagues. Some fantasy managers want to reach for the top quarterbacks, and many other leagues punt the positions pretty hard. It's impossible to tell if your position matters unless you know your league mates' tendencies.

Even if you pick first overall, there's a good chance that no QBs will be taken in the first two rounds before the 24th overall pick in 12-team leagues. The same applies in 14-team leagues, though slightly less so. But overall, it's not something you should worry much about.

If you want someone like Allen or Jackson, though, be prepared to spend a second-round pick to make absolutely sure you get one of them if you pick late in the draft and have the early second-round picks. At their ADPs, they're often gone by the late third round.

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