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Nathan's overvalued quarterbacks for fantasy football drafts in 2025. His top draft avoids at QB, including Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and more.
While most astute fantasy managers know to prioritize the running back and receiver positions first on draft day, nailing your quarterback selection is still a critical piece for fantasy success.
A breakout quarterback can lead your team all the way to the promised land, but a bust can leave you scrambling for reinforcements.
Here are five quarterbacks who are likely to bust in 2025.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield had his best season as a professional last year, but is likely bound for regression in 2025. After a career resurgence in his first season with Tampa Bay in 2023, Mayfield had a monster 2024 season, shooting his fantasy points per game from 16.7 up to 22.4.
Mayfield finished last season with a completion percentage of 71.4%, beating his previous career high by over 7%. Mayfield also had his career highs in yards (4,500), touchdowns (41), yards per attempt (7.9), and touchdowns per passing attempt (7.2%).
Only four quarterbacks have ever thrown for 4,500 yards and 40+ touchdowns on a 70% completion percentage: Drew Brees in 2011, Aaron Rodgers in 2020, and Joe Burrow last season.
Following his 2011 season, Brees' fantasy points per game dropped from 24.4 to 21.6 the next season, and he dipped in all three metrics. The same regression happened for Rodgers, despite winning the MVP the following season. Rodgers’ fantasy points per game dropped from 24.2 in 2020 to 21.0 the following season. Regression can happen even to the best quarterbacks of all time, and it is expected to occur for Mayfield in 2025.
Avoid: Baker Mayfield (QB7)❌
Regression in TD Rate (career high last year 7.2%)
(The 7 QBs who reached a 7%+ TD Rate since 2016 have averaged around a 2.3% drop in the next season)
New Offensive Coordinator
Tristian Wirfs injury?
I think Baker is going to have a fine year,… pic.twitter.com/EHZemjpeZF
— Fantasy Football Data (@FantasyFFData) August 8, 2025
The Buccaneers also lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who was the play-caller for Mayfield and the offense last season. The Buccaneers are also likely to be missing receivers Chris Godwin (ankle) and Jalen McMillan, as well as left tackle Tristan Wirfs, for the beginning of the season. Rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka has been lighting it up in the Bucs’ training camp this season, but it’s hard to imagine he matches the output that Godwin produced at the beginning of last season.
Mayfield is currently being drafted inside the top seven quarterbacks in fantasy leagues this year. With regression expected, his lack of rushing upside, and injuries across the Buccaneers’ offense, Mayfield is an avoid at his price tag this season.
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is back on the avoid list for the 2025 season. In 2023, Mahomes had a down year, averaging under 18 fantasy points per game for the first time in his career and finishing as the QB8 that season. Mahomes was expected to bounce back in 2024, ranking as a top-3 QB according to 2024 RotoBaller’s PPR rankings.
Then he had an even worse season, putting up career lows in yards and touchdowns, and finished as the QB11 in fantasy. How does the fantasy consensus react to another down year for Mahomes? By ranking him as the QB6, ahead of quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, and Kyler Murray, who scored higher than Mahomes in both 2023 and 2024 in terms of fantasy points per game.
After a dominant five-year run, Patrick Mahomes has regressed in a major way in both touchdown rate and Fantasy points per dropback.
He also hasn't scored as many TDs on the ground
Could be a rare buy-low window on one of the most talented players to play football pic.twitter.com/FXb2yvPmZI
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 27, 2025
The Kansas City Chiefs have lost their explosive ways over the past two seasons. The Chiefs tied for the fewest plays gained over 25 yards (29), along with the New York Giants and the Jacksonville Jaguars, according to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis.
While many believe the Chiefs' offense will revert to its old explosive ways, they are still winning football games. They went 15-2 last season, clinching the AFC bye week and making yet another trip to the Super Bowl. They’re relying more on their elite defense, which has allowed the fewest points in the NFL since 2023.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have talked a lot this offseason about throwing deep more, but he did the same thing last offseason. Before the 2024 season, Mahomes told ESPN’s Adam Teicher that head coach Andy Reid was encouraging him to air the ball out more.
Even if Mahomes gets back to his old ways, it’s going to be challenging to keep up with the elite running quarterbacks with legit rushing upside. Mahomes has never had a season where he carried the ball over 75 times, rushed for more than 400 yards, or had more than four rushing touchdowns in his eight-year career.
Last season, Mahomes averaged 2.6 fantasy points just from rushing in 2024, while the top-4 quarterbacks in fantasy last year averaged eight fantasy points from rushing. Mahomes will need to average over 50 more passing yards and a full touchdown more to make up for that lack of rushing.
In addition, Mahomes will be without his top wideout, Rashee Rice, for the first six games due to a suspension. It’s clear that Mahomes’ name and NFL legacy are boosting his fantasy football value, so the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback is an avoid this season.
Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s current fantasy value is one of the biggest deceptions in fantasy football this season. From 2021 to 2022, Herbert was one of the most pass-heavy quarterbacks in the NFL, throwing over 675 passing attempts and 4,700 yards in both seasons. Before the 2024 season, the Chargers underwent a complete overhaul of their scheme, hiring head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
Roman has only had an offense rank inside the top 20 in passing yards twice in his 11-year career as an offensive coordinator. When Harbaugh coached during Michigan’s national championship season, with eventual first-round pick J.J. McCarthy as the quarterback, they ran the ball 200 more times than they threw it.
This was displayed during Herbert’s last season, where he averaged his career lows in passing yards, attempts, and passing touchdowns. Keep in mind, this was the second-most pass attempts a team coached by Harbaugh or Roman ever had during a season, and it was due to a lackluster run game.
Justin Herbert is more name than production in fantasy at this point, at least while Jim Harbaugh is the coach of the Chargers.
There's just not a lot of upside in this run-heavy offense.
Herbert has finished as QB16, QB11, and QB17 in PPG in the last three seasons.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 23, 2025
The Chargers' run game was succeeding during the first seven games of the season, thanks to solid production from running back J.K. Dobbins. During this span, Herbert averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game. When Dobbins was injured and the run game fell apart, Herbert got back on track, averaging 18.5 points per game after Week 12.
So instead of adding elite playmakers on the outside for Herbert and going on what they did later in the season, they signed perennial 1,000-yard rusher Najee Harris, used their 2025 first-round pick on running back Omarion Hampton, and bulked up the offensive line. Harbaugh and Roman want to run the ball, and with an upgraded running back room this season, expect Herbert to struggle like he did early in 2024.
Similar to Mahomes, Herbert’s past production is inflating his 2025 fantasy value. The days when the Chargers threw the ball 650+ times a season are over under this new coaching regime. Herbert is currently ranked as a top 15 quarterback, which is far too high a price for a pocket quarterback in a run-heavy offense.
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are coming off one of the best offensive scoring seasons of all time in 2024. The Lions averaged a league-high 33.2 points per game, ranking as the 12th highest in NFL history. Every team that finished inside the top 10 regressed the following season, averaging a 7.2-point decline per game. Detroit would go from the highest scoring offense in the league to a borderline top ten offense in terms of points per game.
Why Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions Are Poised for a Major Regression in 2025
Jared Goff’s story in Detroit is nothing short of inspiring. Left for dead after being traded from the LA Rams. Goff has revitalized his career, transforming the Lions into a NFC contender. pic.twitter.com/5hq8yPer99
— Big Draft Energy (@BigDraftersHQ) July 19, 2025
The Lions lost multiple key contributors during the 2025 offseason. First and foremost, they lost their mastermind offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson. Goff has had three of his best four fantasy scoring seasons under Johnson, averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game. In the other six seasons, Goff averaged 15.7 points per game, which would put him on pace to finish as the QB22 in 2024.
The Lions also lost two starting offensive linemen, with center Frank Ragnow retiring and right guard Kevin Zeitler signing with the Titans. The Lions’ offensive line unit was one of the best in the NFL last season, with PFF grading them as the fourth-best in the league, and Ragnow grading as the second-best center in football.
Even if the Lions are still elite in 2025, Goff’s ceiling is capped with his limited rushing upside. Goff could throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, while throwing just 10 interceptions, but that is just 15.4 fantasy points per game. He may still perform as a top 10 NFL quarterback in 2025, but from a fantasy perspective, his value will likely crumble due to the lack of rushing.
With the Lions’ projected regression, offensive line departures, and his lack of rushing ability, Goff is a must-fade for the 2025 season. The veteran quarterback has thrived in an elite situation in Detroit, but if the offense takes a step back, Goff will face the consequences.
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a must-avoid in fantasy leagues this year. After elite offensive production in 2023, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins struggled, dropping from the second-ranked scoring offense to 22nd in the NFL. Tagovailoa has been struggling to stay on the field, but even if he plays the full season, this offense is trending in the wrong direction.
Head coach Mike McDaniel changed his system last season, from an inconsistent big-play machine to a more conservative, long-drive system. McDaniel stated that the offense needs to survive in the postseason if defenses decide to take the deep ball out of play.
The scheme change showed last season, as Tagovailoa had his lowest yards per attempt (7.2) and touchdowns per attempt (4.8%) since McDaniel was hired in Miami. There were plenty of short passes to running back De'Von Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith, and fewer targets for wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Even if the Dolphins’ offense shifts back to a more aggressive attack, who’s to say the offensive line will allow them to? Pro Football Network ranked the Dolphins’ offensive line 27th in the NFL in 2024, and it’s hard to say they are expected to improve. Former All-Pro Terron Armstead retired, and starters Liam Eichenberg and Austin Jackson are expected to miss time early in the season.
The Dolphins have reportedly been having a rough training camp. When Miami traveled up to Detroit to have a joint practice with the Lions, multiple reporters said Miami had the “worst joint practice they had ever seen.”
.@cfrelund sees the performance of the Dolphins offensive line as "the single most important thing" for Tua Tagovailoa and the team's overall success this season. pic.twitter.com/Ar4EOxKEsB
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) June 5, 2025
All these problems add up when you think about the risks in drafting Tagovailoa in fantasy drafts this year. That’s not even factoring in his injury concerns. Tagovailoa has suffered multiple concussions, high-ankle sprains, and hip injuries (including a fractured hip in college).
Tagovailoa should go undrafted in one-QB leagues, but the Dolphins quarterback is probably too risky to consider even in superflex leagues. Tagovailoa has lost the upside he had in previous years, and given his injury history and the Dolphins’ dysfunction, it is not advisable to draft him this season.
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