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Expert Week 1 NFL betting picks and analysis for Sunday's slate (2025). Get the best bets, point spreads, and for early and afternoon NFL games on 9/7/2025.
It's time to kick off the 2025 NFL season with my Week 1 best bets. You always want to approach the first week with caution, as it can be quite unpredictable. Just think back to last season, when the Cincinnati Bengals lost at home against Jacoby Brissett and the New England Patriots.
With that in mind, it's a good idea to tread lightly, building a smaller card, especially when the focus is on sharper markets like point spreads, totals, and moneylines, as it is on this page.
So, without further ado, let's dive into my Week 1 expert betting picks. Find out why I'm riding with the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, and Las Vegas Raiders.
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Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Pick: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cardinals start the year with a winnable road game against the Saints. You may be wondering why Arizona is such a heavy favorite away from home at nearly a touchdown, but the line speaks volumes here. Oddsmakers expect New Orleans to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.
It's hard to disagree with that sentiment, as this is a team that is starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback. The second-year signal-caller wasn't impressive as a rookie, averaging an abysmal 5.8 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and five interceptions.
That's bad news against an improving Cardinals defense that racked up 41 sacks last year, which ranked 13th in the NFL. It's a good defensive scheme coached up by Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. Miami Dolphins' head coach Mike McDaniel called Rallis' scheme unlike anything he's seen across the NFL.
Why Cardinals' 'brilliant' Nick Rallis is among NFL's most exciting playcallers https://t.co/HqXlaYMZJP via @theo_mackie
— Kent Somers (@kentsomers) September 2, 2025
It's why the Cardinals were able to generate a pass rush despite not having a household name, but that changes this season, as Arizona signed former Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat this offseason. When Gannon last coached Sweat in 2023, he had a career-high 11 sacks.
With that in mind, don't be surprised if the Cardinals' defense has Rattler under constant duress in this game, resulting in several sacks and potential turnovers.
Then we have to consider the improved Cardinals offense, which should be better than last year, considering their young talents like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. If Kyler Murray can get on track, don't be surprised if Arizona takes the next step this season.
I'm betting that Arizona's defense dominates the Saints, resulting in a comfortable Week 1 victory for the Cardinals.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Bengals cost themselves a playoff berth because of their Week 1 loss against the Patriots last season. The team was lethargic and seemed unprepared for that game, taking one of the worst teams in the NFL for granted.
Now, Cincinnati faces another team that projects as one of the bottom-feeders in the league. This time, it's a familiar opponent in the division rival Browns. While you may feel uncomfortable laying points on the road with a volatile Bengals team that tends to struggle early in the year, it feels different this time around.
The Bengals made it a point of emphasis to ensure that they would not get off to a slow start this time around. By giving their starters more reps in the preseason, Cincinnati is trying to make sure that they're prepared for Week 1.
I expect this to work, with Joe Burrow likely picking apart this Browns defense.
While Joe Flacco gives Cleveland more of a steady hand under center, he's still a 40+ year old signal-caller who is statuesque in the pocket. We also have to acknowledge the possibility of Flacco just flat-out falling off a cliff in performance. After all, he is at that age.
Considering these circumstances, we'll ride with the Bengals on the road against the Browns here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons +1.5 (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Falcons look ready to take a leap this season, revolving around two key factors: quarterback and pass rush. Former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. takes over under center. This is a significant upgrade over what Kirk Cousins gave them last season. Remember, Cousins was off a torn Achilles, so he clearly was not himself.
Penix brings more of a gunslinging mentality, willing to fit the ball in tight windows, which works perfectly with top wideout Drake London, who can thrive downfield, making contested catches.
WHAT A THROW BY MICHAEL PENIX JR. TO KYLE PITTS ON FOURTH DOWN TO TIE IT 🔥
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/b21LMa3BUp
— ESPN (@espn) December 30, 2024
The next key factor here is that the Falcons did a good job prioritizing their pass rush in the draft, selecting Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. with their first two picks, both in the first round. This improved pass rush is bad news for the Bucs, who will be playing without All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs in this matchup.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Baker Mayfield under pressure often in this game, resulting in potential turnovers that could swing this game in the Falcons' direction.
It's a bad spot for the Bucs in their first game without Liam Coen, who was one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL last year. There's a reasonable chance that the Bucs' offense looks lethargic in this one, so take the home dog in this NFC South battle.
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) vs. New England Patriots
The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (-102 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Raiders could surprise some teams this season after upgrading at quarterback and coaching staff. Geno Smith is one of the most underrated signal-callers in the NFL. Pete Carroll is a Super Bowl-winning head coach who can get the most out of his players. Chip Kelly runs a fast-paced offense that could work nicely with the talent that Vegas has at the skill positions.
Rookie Ashton Jeanty is one of the best running back prospects in recent memory, on par with the likes of Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott. This is an elusive runner with outstanding contact balance to help sustain drives. Add in generational tight end Brock Bowers, and you have the makings of a good offense here.
While the Patriots are similarly trending in the right direction with how good Drake Maye has looked in his young career and after they brought in Mike Vrabel as head coach, this may be a bad spot for them. That's because they're likely going to be playing without top cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
This could be a significant loss in their pass defense, giving the Raiders the edge in this spot.
Then you consider the Patriots offense, which has Stefon Diggs as the top wideout, but he's coming off a torn ACL. TreVeyon Henderson is electric, but he's making his NFL debut. There could be some growing pains with this group.
These are two teams with a lot of roster turnover, so we'll ride with the underdog Raiders, who have more weapons on offense, good enough to exploit an undermanned Patriots defense.
