RADIO
Jens Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 John Deere Classic. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Happy 4th of July, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
As we head into the weekend, Doug Ghim is leading the field at 12-under, marking the first time in his career that he has held the lead after 36 holes. The leaderboard is tightly packed, with Davis Thompson, Brian Campbell, David Lipsky, Emiliano Grillo, and Max Homa all tied for second at 11-under. Following them, Camilo Villegas, Taylor Montgomery, Sam Stevens, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Champ, and Kevin Roy are tied for seventh at 10-under. There are 14 golfers within three shots of Ghim's lead, and given the number of scoring opportunities that TPC Deere Run allows, it promises to be an exciting weekend.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Tomorrow's forecast is expected to resemble today's conditions, with light winds in the morning that will increase by mid-morning. The course played at 1.42 strokes under par in Round 1 and 1.43 strokes under par in Round 2.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Denny McCarthy was the only golfer in this salary range to make it to the weekend. While he hasn't been spectacular, he has played consistently good golf throughout the first two rounds. In Round 1, he gained 1.951 strokes on approach, hit 83.33% of greens in regulation, and gained 0.970 strokes putting. In Round 2, he wasn't as sharp, gaining 0.997 strokes on approach but losing 0.199 strokes putting. Although McCarthy hasn't been lighting it up with the flat stick as he typically does, he has been solid on approach. I want someone in my lineup who we know can go low if he can find his rhythm on the greens.
Challenge: Eat a hot dog. Run 100 meters.
Joey Chestnut vs. Usain Bolt.
Who wins? pic.twitter.com/1ZRfWRU33k
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 4, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Bud Cauley was much sharper overall today than he was in Round 1. He's been excellent off the tee in both rounds, gaining 1.059 strokes off the tee in Round 1 and 1.132 in Round 2. His first round could've been much better than the 2-under 69 he posted if he had executed better on approach. He lost 2.477 strokes on approach and gained 0.265 strokes putting. However, it was his play around the greens that kept his round alive. He bounced back in a big way today, gaining 1.302 strokes on approach and 2.340 strokes putting. Cauley has dropped 11 birdies through the first two rounds, and I expect him to create plenty of birdie opportunities tomorrow. If he can convert one or two more than he did today, we'll want him in our lineups.
Other Options: Michael Thorbjornsen, Davis Thompson
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Aldrich Potgieter hasn't missed a beat coming off his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic week. In Round 1, he posted a score of 4-under 67, which included two eagles and two bogeys. He followed that up in Round 2 by dropping eight birdies on his way to a 5-under 66. His off the tee play has continued to be exceptional, giving him a significant edge as he has overpowered TPC Deere Run, gaining 3.714 strokes off the tee over the first two rounds. The scoring opportunities at TPC Deere Run are abundant, and I want a player in my lineup who has dropped 10 birdies and two eagles in the first two rounds.
Other Options: Kevin Yu, Sam Stevens, Chris Gotterup
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Sticking with the South Africans, Thriston Lawrence appears to be hitting his stride. Over the first two rounds, he has gained 0.548 strokes on approach, 1.334 strokes around the green, and 3.434 strokes putting. However, he's lost 0.189 strokes off the tee through the first two rounds, but every other facet of his game is firing on all cylinders and if he can improve his off the tee play even marginally, I could see him pushing for the low round tomorrow.
Other Options: Rickie Fowler, Rico Hoey, Max Homa, Mark Hubbard
Doug Ghim sits at 12-under 130 and holds the solo lead at the John Deere Classic after the second round.
This marks his first 36-hole lead on TOUR and 130 marks his lowest opening 36-hole score on TOUR (previous best: 131/2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches).
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) July 5, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Seamus Power has quietly put together two excellent rounds so far. In Round 1, he dropped five birdies and only one bogey. He then followed that up in Round 2 with a 5-under bogey-free 66. His approach play has been DIALED IN, gaining 5.354 strokes on approach and hitting 91.67% of greens in regulation through the first two rounds. He's only three strokes off the lead but could be higher up on the leaderboard if his putter didn't let him down in the first round, where he lost 1.142 strokes putting. He's dropped 10 birdies through the first two rounds and has also cashed DraftKings bonuses for either a bogey-free round or three consecutive birdies in each round.
Other Options: Garrick Higgo, Jeremy Paul, Brian Campbell, Ben Kohles
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Zach Johnson has hit 82.14% of fairways, gained 0.841 strokes on approach and 1.879 strokes putting through the first two rounds and the only blemish on his scorecard in Round 2 was the bogey he carded on the 9th hole, his 18th. Johnson has been striping fairways, hitting greens and consistently put himself in positions to be aggressive with his approach shots and attack pins. He has the potential to go low and could be a great lower-owned option to consider, especially in this section of the article
Round 3 Pairings are out:https://t.co/bh7Fg3FVFV pic.twitter.com/mkyJgYBWu8
— John Deere Classic (@JDCLASSIC) July 5, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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