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Andy looks at four sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 13 (2025) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
With nearly three months of data to analyze, there are several intriguing starting pitchers available in nearly half of all fantasy leagues. While these pitchers have struggled at times, they have begun to flash some upside that could warrant picking them up this week.
This week, we will do a deep dive on four starting pitchers who sit under the 45% rostership mark on Yahoo! who have begun to enjoy some success.
Who should fantasy managers be targeting this week? Let's dive in!
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Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays
35% Rostered
Max Scherzer saw his Toronto Blue Jays debut cut short as he exited his first start of the season with a thumb injury. In this outing, the veteran right-hander tossed just three innings of three-run ball with three hits, no walks, and a strikeout. He was then placed on the injured list with right thumb inflammation.
Scherzer remained sidelined without seeing much progress and was eventually shifted to the 60-day IL.
However, the 40-year-old recently began his rehab assignment and is slated to return to the big leagues on Wednesday to face the Cleveland Guardians.
During his rehab assignment, Scherzer made two appearances with Triple-A Buffalo. In his first outing, he logged 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts and no walks. Then, in his most recent outing on June 18. Scherzer looked quite impressive, tallying eight strikeouts across 4 1/3 one-hit innings.
Max Scherzer ends his night in Buffalo with one more strikeout! #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/9tApFl2M22
— Buffalo Bisons (@BuffaloBisons) June 13, 2025
Last season, the right-hander was limited by injuries in his shoulder and back, tossing just 43 1/3 innings of work with the Rangers. However, when on the diamond, he was effective, posting a 3.95 ERA with a solid 1.15 WHIP. Under the hood, he generated a slightly improved 3.86 xERA and held a solid 5.6% walk rate.
However, during his last "true" healthy campaign, in 2023, Scherzer held a 3.77 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. During this campaign, he spent most of his time with the Mets before moving to Texas for the stretch run. In Texas, Scherzer became a top option in their rotation, posting an elite 3.20 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP across his final 45 innings.
However, while his 2024 stat line is not as impressive as 2024, he carries similar metrics that suggest he could be a valuable SP going forward in 2025. In 2024, his four-seamer generated a .335 xWOBA, almost in lockstep with the .327 xWOBA it held in 2023. In addition, his slider generated an improved .244 xwOBA and a 43.3% whiff rate in relation to the .301 xwOBA and 36.5% whiff rate it held in 2023.
While injuries will likely continue to limit his ceiling, Scherzer is a viable target, especially if you need to lower your WHIP ratio over the second half. He should provide a strong walk rate with above-average strikeout numbers.
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
40% Rostered
Eury Perez returned to the bump earlier in June after missing the 2024 campaign by recovering from Tommy John surgery. His debut was shaky as he allowed four runs and four hits across three innings ot the Nationals. However, he did strike out five batters. In his next outing, he did not strike out a batter but showed improvements, allowing just one run across four innings.
In his third start, Perez was able to tally a season-high six strikeouts against the Braves, but allowed three runs and four hits across 4 2/3 innings of work.
Perez has allowed at least two walks in each start and four hits in all three games.
In 2023, Perez made his MLB debut and took the league by storm, posting an impressive 3.15 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. During this stint, Perez struck out 108 batters across 91 1/3 innings of work. Perez allowed walks at a modest 8.3% rate.
Should fantasy managers rush to the waiver wire to pick up the former top prospect as he begins to increase his workload?
Looking under the hood, his metrics suggest Perez should begin seeing positive regression. Currently, the right-hander sits with a solid 3.63 xERA and a .244 xBA, both of which are above the average marks of qualified pitchers. In addition, Perez has been able to limit hard contact quite well, boasting an elite 5.6% barrel rate and a 30.6% hard-hit rate.
In addition, he has generated an impressive 32.8% chase rate but has only struck out 20.4% of the batters he has faced. As a result, fantasy managers should expect his strikeout numbers to climb.
His primary pitch, his four-seamer, has been effective, posting a .322 xwOBA with a solid 22.1% whiff rate, which is improved compared to the .382 xwOBA and 18.7% whiff rate it held in 2023. However, his secondary pitch, his slider, is due for massive positive regression.
This pitch has generated a .320 xwOBA, but sits with a hefty .503 wOBA. In addition, this pitch has been elite in generating whiffs (26.9%) and should help Perez's strikeout numbers return to form.
Even though his 6.17 ERA and 1.63 WHIP do not seem appealing, his metrics suggest the right-hander will be a valuable starting pitcher in the second half. If he is available, he should be a must-target on waivers this weekend.
Eury Pérez 💯⛽️ pic.twitter.com/CX9eh9NcwI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2025
Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds
25% Rostered
For the first time in this series, we will take a look at a pitcher who has yet to make his MLB debut. The Cincinnati Reds drafted Chase Burns with the second overall pick in last year's draft out of Wake Forest.
Burns began his collegiate career with the Tennessee Volunteers but eventually transferred to Wake Forest after being demoted to the bullpen. With Wake Forest, Burns developed into one of the top pitchers in the nation, like many previous top pitching prospects did at that university, including Reds teammate Rhett Lowder and Texas Ranger Jack Leiter.
During his first season at Wake Forest, Burns set the single-season school record in strikeouts and was rewarded with a massive $9.25 million signing bonus.
The hard-throwing right-hander began his professional career with High-A Dayton at the start of the 2025 season. He tossed 11 2/3 innings of work to the tune of a 3.09 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. During this stretch, Burns struck out 20 batters and walked five.
He was then moved up to Double-A, where he continued to dominate, posting a near-perfect 1.29 ERA and a 071 WHIP across 42 innings. In this stint, Burns continued to show elite command of his pitches, as he walked just five batters and struck out 55.
Burns then earned the call to Triple-A Louisville. In his first outing, he hit a slight roadblock, allowing two runs and four hits across 5 1/3 innings to the Iowa Cubs. However, in his second start at the level, Burns bounced back, tossing seven innings with just three hits, one run, no walks, and seven strikeouts.
According to FanGraphs, his fastball is graded 70 (out of 70), and his secondary pitch, his slider, sits with an elite 60 rating.
Burns has shown stellar command of his pitches while flashing immense strikeout upside. Even though he is slated to face a potent Yankee lineup in his debut on Tuesday, he is a must-add and must-start in all leagues leading up to this game.
Chase Burns is making his MLB debut on Tuesday against the New York Yankees.
2025 (A+AA/AAA): 13 GS, 66 IP, 1.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 5.4% BB, 36.8% K
Burns is my #1 overall pitching prospect and is a must-add in any league where available.#FantasyBaseballpic.twitter.com/svYmUC1bNG
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 22, 2025
Ryan Gusto, Houston Astros
15% Rostered
To round things out this week, we will take a look at another young Houston pitcher. Last week, it was Brandon Walter; this week, it will be Ryan Gusto. Gusto was selected in the 11th round of the 2019 MLB Draft by the Astros from Florida SouthWestern State College.
Gusto spent his entire 2024 season with Triple-A Sugar Land and posted a solid 3.70 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP across 148 1/3 innings. During this stint, the right-hander struck out 141 batters and served up 53 walks.
Gusto was then able to make his MLB debut at the start of the 1205 campaign. Through his first 17 MLB appearances, Gusto has spent time in both the bullpen and the rotation. Gusto opened the season in a long relief role but has recently become a staple of the starting rotation.
Through 60 1/3 total innings of work. Gusto has posted a 4.62 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP.
However, his last six appearances have all come out of the rotation. During this stint, Gusto has shown high strikeout upside, tallying 35 across 29 1/3 innings, but has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, allowing five long balls, which has resulted in his modest 4.60 ERA.
His latest outing on June 22 inflated his ratios as he allowed five runs. Removing this one outing, Gusto has posted a solid 3.86 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a 28:10 K:BB over his last 23 1/3 innings (five starts).
Should fantasy managers in deeper leagues trust Gusto going forward?
Even though he holds a 4.64 ERA in June, Gusto has generated solid metrics his month. His four-seamer (42.1% usage) has generated an impressive .164 xwOBA, a much-improved mark to the .436 xwOBA it held in May.
While his curveball has not found much success (.417 xwOBA), his sinker and changeup have been solid secondary options, generating a .307 and .286 xwOBA repertoire.
Overall, Gusto sits with a 3.89 xERA and a .249 xBA, which suggests he should continue to see positive regression during the second half, as he holds a 4.62 ERA across his first 60 1/3 MLB frames.
While he is not worth targeting in all standard leagues for now, he is a viable back-end starter to deploy in favorable matchups in deeper leagues going forward.
Ryan Gusto's 2Ks in the 4th pic.twitter.com/1mokzjNqJb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 12, 2025
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