MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (6/6/2025)

June 6, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/6/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Ramon Urias, Pete Alonso, Christian Yelich, and more.

We have a typically big slate for Friday's MLB games. We have some great hitting spots on today’s set of games. We have home run-friendly parks, warm weather, and the wind blowing out. We at RotoBaller have been extremely hot in this article over the past few weeks as the weather has heated up, so let's keep the trend going tonight.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need one of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, June 6, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/6/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, June 6:

• Ramon Urias, Baltimore Orioles
• Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets
• Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

Ramon Urias OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

We are going to start the party off today with what I expect to be a pretty big long shot of a home run selection. While odds are not currently posted for Ramon Urias, I would have him priced somewhere in the +600-+700 range, simply because he does not provide a ton of pop. This is alright, because he may not have to be in Sacramento tonight.

Urias and the Orioles have traveled out West to face the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, which has been a favorite park for bettors to attack overs. Tonight, the weather is expected to warm (88 degrees), and winds are blowing out at around 10 mph. Quite frankly, it could not get much better weather-wise, but wait, there is more!

Urias and the Orioles will be up against Athletics' left-hander JP Sears, who has allowed a whopping 13 home runs thus far in 2025. Of those 13 home runs, 12 have been given up to right-handed hitters. Sears has also been bad in terms of the metrics, as he has allowed 26.1% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the 19th percentile.

Sears has also been horrible at Sutter Health Park, as noted by his 3.3HR/9 allowed and 5.68 ERA there this season. Meanwhile, Urias loves to face left-handed pitching. In 2025, Urias has posted a .913 OPS against southpaws across 30 PAs, while also hitting one of his two home runs against lefties. While the 30 PA is not a lot for 2025, he has posted a .752 OPS against lefties across his previous 232 PA.

While Urias will certainly not blow you away with power, he has a great matchup tonight. With odds expected to be pretty high here, he would bring home a nice return on smaller action and fits nicely into a round robin here.

Tyler Stephenson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings)

Now, we get into some more likely home run plays, starting with Tyler Stephenson of the Cincinnati Reds. Stephenson has another favorable weather and park spot at Great American Ballpark tonight. The weather is expected to be warm (80 degrees), and we should see a slight wind blowing out around six mph.

Thus far in 2025, Tyler Stephenson has hit five home runs across his first 95 at-bats. Four of these home runs have come over the previous two weeks, where he has posted a .981 OPS. Stephenson also loves hitting at home, where he has hit 22 of his 37 home runs since 2023. In 2025, he posted some powerful metrics as well.

He has posted an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph, ranking him in the 79th percentile of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate near 40%, which ranks him in the 89th percentile leaguewide. He will also be up against Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander, Eduardo Rodriguez, which is good news.

In 2025, Rodriguez has allowed a total of eight home runs, seven of which have been allowed to right-handed hitters. He has also allowed 23.1% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which is quite middling. Rodriguez will be making his first start off the IL, so we can likely expect a bit of rust from him.

Tyler Stephenson is 3-for-3 and blasts this one into the bullpen for the @Reds 💥 pic.twitter.com/KuIyvtqYgn

— MLB (@MLB) May 26, 2025

Stephenson has also performed well against left-handed pitching, as noted by his .836 OPS across his previous 300+ PA.

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Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+240 DraftKings)

I will likely get ridiculed a bit for including a player at sub-+300 odds in this article, but I could not pass up the opportunity to include Pete Alonso tonight at Coors Field. We have a ballpark advantage playing at Coors, so that is the reason for the odds reduction, but even still, I would have expected this to be a tad lower, given what Alonso has done so far in 2025.

Overall, Alonso has mashed 15 home runs on the season. He has done this by posting an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph, which ranks in the 99th percentile of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate north of 40%, ranking him in the 91st percentile. Quite frankly, the Polar Bear has been mashing.

Over the previous two weeks, Alonso has smacked six home runs while posting a 1.126 OPS, so recency is in our favor here as well. He will be up against Colorado Rockies right-hander, Antonio Senzatela, who has been awful for quite some time.

In 2025, Senzatela has allowed a total of 11 home runs, eight of which have been given up to right-handed bats. At home, he has allowed a 7.42 ERA with 1.5 HR/9. He has also given up multiple home runs in four starts this season, including allowing two home runs to the Mets in his most recent start. While Alonso has no career home runs off of Senzatela, he is 5-for-14 off of him and could certainly go yard tonight.

Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings)

Christian Yelich is probably my favorite home run play of the night, and we have excellent odds on him at +425. Yelich has been raking in 2025, as he now has 13 home runs on the season, three of which have come in the previous seven days while posting a 1.313 OPS.

Yelich's power metrics have been superb as well. In 2025, he's posted an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph, which ranks him in the 91st percentile. He has also done some serious damage against right-handed pitching this season, as he has posted an .869 OPS with 12 of his 13 home runs coming off of righties.

He will be up against Padres' right-hander Randy Vasquez, who has struggled to the tune of allowing eight home runs this season. Six of these home runs have been given up to left-handed hitters while allowing a .287 BAA. Vasquez has also struggled mightily in recent weeks, as he has given up seven home runs in his previous five starts after allowing just one home run across his first seven starts.

Christian Yelich has 5 HR and 12 RBI over his last 7 games 👀 pic.twitter.com/rMdSpBWqp4

— MLB (@MLB) May 31, 2025

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