Day 3 NFL Rookie Running Backs Who Could Start: 4 Fantasy Football Sleepers to Draft (2025)

June 5, 2025

John's 4 NFL rookie running back breakout candidates. Targets theses fantasy football sleepers in drafts: Bhayshul Tuten, Jarquez Hunter, Dylan Sampson, and Brashard Smith.

The ever-coveted RB1 roles can lead to hugely productive fantasy seasons for running backs. There isn't much to explain here -- volume is nearly everything at the RB position. That's how unathletic players like Rams running back Kyren Williams can put up massive numbers -- they have huge, huge roles in their offenses.

Obviously, the upside depends on how good the offense is as well. The Rams, for example, have an offense that's tailored to producing fantasy superstars. But these can lead to misleading situations -- sometimes, players who aren't great but luck into RB1 roles due to the team not having better options can have huge seasons.

These and other factors can help us determine which backfields are destined to be taken over by new players. Other factors include things like changes in coaching staffs, red flags of inefficiency, and the like. I'll also do my best to avoid the obvious. As to say, no point in writing about Ashton Jeanty! Let's dive in.

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech

New coaching regimes that have no attachment to the players on the roster when they were hired to draft "their guys" in the NFL Draft in the year in which they were hired tend to, you know, prefer their guys. So when Coen used a fourth-round pick to draft Tuten in the 2025 NFL Draft, we should have paid attention.

I've been a big proponent of Tuten's game for a long time. I had him ranked as my RB1 even before this year's draft. While I don't know if I still have him as my RB1 -- he might be my RB2 now, after Denver Broncos back RJ Harvey -- I still think he has massive potential to be a league-winner in fantasy leagues in 2025.

The idea that Bhayshul Tuten is just ridiculously fast and doesn't possess a deep skill set is just inaccurate. He'll have plenty of receiving upside and is very hard to bring down. The acceleration is nuts. He could become a wheel route and screen pass monster in Year 1. pic.twitter.com/AMY6RuEpu6

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 25, 2025

One of the easiest cheat codes in all of fantasy football is highly explosive, elite athletes on offenses with coaching staffs that have a history of success. For some reason, though, people are pretending Coen didn't make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers one of the league's best offenses, especially for fantasy football, in 2024.

To pretend that it was all the wizardry of quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Bucky Irving, and the team's group of receivers, wouldn't be accurate. They certainly deserve credit for their excellent play. But, especially on the run-blocking side of things, all one needs to do is look at Irving's tape.

best blocking rep of all time? people are sayin pic.twitter.com/thcEV6eSGe

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 26, 2025

Expressing even small criticisms of players like Irving will lead many to call said expresser a hater. The problem with that is that I was one of Irving's biggest proponents, having drafted him in all my fantasy leagues last year, and I knew he would take the lead job from Rachaad White, and that's what happened.

But Irving's highlight reel shows absolutely incredible blocking execution. And you have to give Coen credit for that. He put Irving in the best possible position to use his talents -- namely, his elusiveness -- on full display, by moving defenders out of the way at all levels of the field as much as possible.

Why is Bhayshul Tuten my RB1? In addition to being an elite athlete, he does some things that I really like running backs to do:
-Breaks tackles
-Eludes tackles
-Carries tacklers with him
-Slips tackles
-Powers through tackles pic.twitter.com/Tj9BjW6GHN

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 28, 2025

Coen got his guy -- the highly elusive, do-it-all running back, and the best athlete of any RB in the draft, easily. Tuten's 4.32-second 40-yard dash, combined with Coen's run-blocking schemes, makes me think he'll rip off a few massive plays early in the season, and the rest will be history.

Tuten is a far better athlete than any other back on the roster. His acceleration and speed are blinding. Travis Etienne Jr. was dreadful last season, though he averaged nearly the same yards per carry as he did in 2023. Tank Bigsby has a fumbling issue and is a poor pass catcher. I doubt either will have huge roles by midseason.

And Coen also drafted LeQuint Allen, but in the seventh round of this year's draft. Allen was an elite pass protector in college. It's hard not to think that Coen will make his two drafted backs the primary players soon, and you should bet on the elite athlete drafted earlier becoming the lead back.

Jarquez Hunter, RB, Los Angeles Rams

This is a highly controversial take. Williams has maintained the Rams' RB1 role for two seasons now and put up huge numbers. Well, not from an efficiency perspective, but when you get 316 carries and basically all of the goal-line opportunities on a Sean McVay offense, you're probably going to have nice statistical production.

But beneath the surface lie massive flaws with his game that I just can't personally get over. The huge dip in yards per carry -- from over 5.0 to around 4.1 -- and the significant fall in his missed tackle rate from 2023 to 2024 are concerning. But those aren't even the most worrying trends.

Kyren Williams in 2023:

-5.02 YPC
-2 Fumbles
-3.9% 15+ Yd run rate
-0.21 MTF/Att
-2.27 YBCon/Att
-2.75 YACon/Att

In 2024:

-4.11 YPC
-5 Fumbles
-1.9% 15+ Yd run rate (3rd worst in NFL, min 100 Att)
-0.13 MTF/Att
-2.02 YBCon/Att
-2.09 YACon/Att

Data per @FantasyPtsData

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 27, 2025

It's the very poor explosive play rate and the fumbles that make me worried that he'll lose his job. There is currently limited support for this in the community, but rumblings have been gradually increasing over time. My analysis will only serve to further that.

Dylan Sampson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Sometimes, teams draft two players at the same position, one or zero years apart, only for the player drafted later to eventually become the team's starter at that position and the other to fade into obscurity. The most prominent recent example of this was when the San Francisco 49ers selected quarterback Trey Lance with the 3rd overall pick.

QB Brock Purdy, who was drafted the next year with the 262nd overall pick, usurped Lance for the starting role and eventually became one of the league's better-performing QBs. Just recently, he signed a five-year, $265 million extension. My analysis has led me to believe that Sampson could easily take the RB1 job for Cleveland.

Dylan Sampson is the @Vol_Football record holder for single-season rushing touchdowns with 22 last year

...a mark previously set in 1929 😳 pic.twitter.com/gUDBdDc7Tm

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) April 26, 2025

Quinshon Judkins is bigger than Sampson and has a bit more power. That's about where his advantages end. Sampson is more elusive, better at forcing missed tackles, better at navigating tight quarters, has far more lateral agility, is more competent as a pass-catcher, and didn't suffer production hits against good teams.

The problem with Quinshon Judkins isn't his poor missed tackles forced rate.

It's that he's average or (MUCH) worse in nearly every efficiency metric when compared to his projected draft capital.

Of 52 R1-R3 RBs since 2018:

25th in MTF%
47th in YCO/A
37th in Explosive%
24th in… pic.twitter.com/JCXX1AYvTZ

— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) April 12, 2025

Judkins has very little ability to make defenders miss in the open field when he has built up speed. His hips are extremely stiff, much more so than normal for even RBs of his size. He often takes on tacklers head-first without executing a plan to actually make them miss. Sampson is much better at gaining yards after contact.

Dylan Sampson absolutely destroyed every big school he played against in 2024 before his hamstring injury in his final game. Quinshon Judkins, despite playing in a committee, having more rest, and having a better offensive line, was prone to putting up stinkers pic.twitter.com/A3x7YL7SqT

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

Sampson, despite being forced into a workhorse role, outperformed Judkins in nearly every statistical efficiency area imaginable. He did this despite playing on a clearly inferior team that had worse run-blocking. Judkins had the advantage of playing in a committee and having fresher legs all year, as well as being part of the great Ohio State offense.

Sampson clearly grades as the better player for me, and has the home run speed to rip off long touchdowns. He should be able to earn more work as the season goes on, and I would be surprised if he doesn't lead the backfield in touches per game by midseason.

So you're telling me Cleveland drafted the SEC's offensive player of the year as a COMPLIMENTARY back?

Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson combined for 38 touchdowns last year.

To join forces as Browns!?

Get ready for the signature Stefanski offense.🍿 pic.twitter.com/KTzKBP59ah

— Nick Karns (@karnsies817) April 29, 2025

Sampson isn't just a speedster. He plays with a fantastic technique that allows him to succeed in literally every situation, despite having slightly less than ideal size. That's impressive. Judkins, meanwhile, rarely got more yards than the defense gave him.

Quinshon Judkins has a rare ability to... really not make anyone miss in the open field with lateral moves once he's built up speed. Ohio State had a lot of big run plays when the run blocking was good. But Judkins is unbelievably stiff in the open field. pic.twitter.com/xeM7Y7C5rU

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 29, 2025

Sampson is an excellent value in all formats. I don't really like the Cleveland Browns offense right now, so that caps his upside, though.

Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Smith was one of my favorite running back prospects before the draft. He's an elite athlete, having run a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. At 5-foot-10, 194 pounds, and in a stacked RB class, he fell all the way to the seventh round, though. However, the good news is that the team he joined will feature a stable and productive offense.

Smith was elite as a pass-catching back, making ridiculous plays in tight coverage, being lethal running routes out of the backfield, and even succeeding running wide receiver routes from wide receiver spots in the formation. We don't see a ton of backs running routes from there in the NFL, but it's still a useful skill.

SMU RB Brashard Smith with a nice catch pic.twitter.com/HcCEw5QqpI

— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) January 29, 2025

Smith's route releases actually look very similar to Green Bay Packers WR Matthew Golden's, which is a great sign. He's still a very capable rusher and better than expected pass-protector for his size, too. There will be plenty of opportunities to shine in a Chiefs backfield that's in disarray.

Chiefs RB situation 🧵 (data via @FantasyPtsData)
You might think Kareem Hunt is the clear RB2 in KC. Yet in 2024, Hunt logged:

-3.64 YPC (RB43 of 46 with 100+ rushes)
-1.5% of rushes > 15+ yds (2nd-last)
-0.08 MTF/Att (dead last)
-1.99 YACon/Att (2nd-last)

(cont. below)

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 25, 2025

For starters, many assume that RB Kareem Hunt will serve as the RB1B or RB2. He was very underwhelming last season, though, and if he were not in Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's system, which allowed Hunt to look serviceable, he would have likely had much worse production.

Pacheco in Weeks 1-2:

-3.97 YPC (RB26 of 40)
-0 runs of 15+ yds
-0.12 MTF/Att (RB28)
-1.97 YACO/Att (RB29)

I think Andy Reid shifts to a committee backfield in 2025. Many might get excited about Elijah Mitchell. I'm not. It's exceedingly rare for 5th year RBs to break out.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 25, 2025

Those who think RB Isiah Pacheco will return to his workhorse RB1 role might be in for a surprise, as he was one of the league's worst starting RBs from an efficiency standpoint. Even though he played just two games before his injury, the results weren't encouraging.

Teams notice efficiency and pay more attention to it than fantasy football managers do. The Chiefs likely won't be happy with that production if Pacheco doesn't take a big leap from that, and considering those numbers came before his broken leg injury, things could get ugly.

You guys sure you don't want an RB that catch back shoulder fades? Achane was also undersized. Both have the speed, explosiveness and WR skillset to beat defensive backs, and the hands to make circus catches. pic.twitter.com/Cj9usRRTk1

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 22, 2025

Smith has serious wide receiver traits, and that's not something you should take for granted in PPR leagues. Kansas City rookies take time to break out, as we saw with WR Rashee Rice (knee) in his first season with the team. But a bit of patience should reward you immensely.

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