RADIO
Jens Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 PGA Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Jhonattan Vegas has surprised everyone by taking a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend. He fired a 7-under 64 in the first round, including five birdies in his last six holes. In Round 2, he followed up with a 1-under 70, which still kept him at the top of the leaderboard. Vegas leads Matthieu Pavon, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Si Woo Kim, all of whom are at 6-under. Close behind are Max Homa and Scottie Scheffler, tied for fifth at 5-under. Additionally, there are ten golfers tied for seventh place, sitting at 4-under. The first two rounds have shown golfers battling through bogeys and pars, setting us up for an exciting weekend ahead.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The forecast for tomorrow predicts much windier conditions compared to the first two rounds, particularly in the afternoon. During the first round, the course played 1.76 strokes over par, while in the second round it played 1.45 strokes over par. If the forecast holds, we may see higher scores than we've seen so far.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Bryson DeChambeau didn't make a birdie in his first nine holes in Round 1, but in the second round he didn't card a bogey until his 10th hole. Off the tee play has proven critical at Quail Hollow and DeChambeau gained 2.065 strokes off the tee in the first round and 1.854 in the second round. It's no secret that a big part of this is his massive advantage with the big stick and through the first two rounds he's leading the field in driving distance. Another reason I'm on Team Bryson tomorrow, he's been consistent with the flat stick in both rounds. He gained 1.617 strokes putting in Round 1 and 1.209 in Round 2.
Just a day at the beach for Scottie Scheffler 🏖️#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/KMYIsafV6S
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 16, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Jon Rahm has played consistently well through the first two rounds, posting a 1-under 70 in both rounds. In Round 1, he dropped seven birdies but also carded four bogeys. In Round 2, he almost kept a clean card bogeying only his second hole but added two birdies over his next 16 holes. In addition, Rahm gained 1.535 strokes off the tee in Round 1 and 1.2045 in Round 2. He hit 12 of 18 greens in regulation in each round has been consistent on the greens. With tougher conditions expected tomorrow, I'm riding with consistency and Rahm checks all of the boxes.
Other Options: Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Tyrell Hatton could easily be closer to the top of the leaderboard if not for the triple bogey he posted on his ninth hole today. He's dropped nine birdies through the first two rounds and hit 11 of 18 greens in each of Round 1 and Round 2. In Round 1, he gained strokes all over the board, gaining 1.082 strokes off the tee and 2.935 strokes on approach, but lost 0.219 strokes putting on his way to a 3-under 68. Things in Round 2 went almost the completely opposite way, losing 1.778 strokes off the tee and 0.710 on approach, but gained 1.581 strokes putting. I know this is a big if, BUUUUUUUT if Hatton can find some middle ground, we could see him go low and he should tee off somewhat early.
Other Options: Daniel Berger, Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Keegan Bradley has only dropped six birdies through the first two rounds, but he has grinded out pars and carded a minimal number of bogeys. This could be exactly what we're looking for with the blustery conditions forecasted for tomorrow, pars and minimal bogeys may get the job done. Bradley's first two rounds were similar to Hatton's. In Round 1, he gained 1.479 strokes off the tee and 2.461 strokes on approach but only gained 0.240 strokes putting. In Round 2, he gained 0.220 strokes off the tee and 0.294 strokes putting but lost 0.497 strokes on approach. Bradley has been one of the better players off the tee and on approach this season and I'm counting on him bouncing back tomorrow.
Other Options: Robert MacIntyre, Tony Finau, Maverick McNealy, Harris English
$6,000+
Favorite Play: J.T. Poston has only carded three bogeys through the first two rounds and has been one of the best players in the field on approach this week. In Round 1, he gained 2.413 strokes on approach and in Round 2 he gained 1.828. On top of his outstanding approach play he's found his rhythm with the flat stick, gaining 2.898 strokes putting in Round 1 and 1.802 in Round 2. In this salary range, I'll take someone who's leading the field in strokes gained putting and near the top of the field in approach ALL DAY.
Other Options: Cameron Young, Max Homa, Ben Griffin, Adam Scott, Michael Thorbjornsen
It's all good vibes for Max Homa in Charlotte.@TMobile | @MaxHoma pic.twitter.com/v33tovNSDL
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 17, 2025
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Kevin Yu has dropped nine birdies through his first two rounds, and it hasn't been pretty. He's also carded six bogeys and only eight pars. BUUUUUUT he has gained strokes off the tee in both rounds, gaining 0.057 strokes off the tee in Round 1 and 0.507 in Round 2 and he has gained 3.952 strokes putting through the first two rounds, putting him 10th in the field for strokes gained putting heading into the weekend. He'll be one of the early tee times tomorrow and I'm riding the hot hand.
Vegas out in front after 36 holes.@ROLEX | #Reachforthecrown pic.twitter.com/SViuFOqoFT
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 17, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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