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Nick Mariano gives his bold predictions for Dallas Cowboys' NFL Playoff hopes for 2024 NFL season. Will the Cowboys make the playoffs? Are the Cowboys a good team?
The 2024 Dallas Cowboys were able to enjoy a breather on their Week 7 bye after getting blown out by the Detroit Lions. While anything can happen in the NFL, there are many reasons to explore why the Cowboys are not poised to make the playoffs this year. From ownership and coaching down to personnel and the red zone, there's no shortage of material.
Dallas enters Week 8 with a 3-3 record and a difficult matchup against the San Francisco 49ers looming. The 'Boys currently field an offense that's 20th in the NFL in average points scored and a defensive unit allowing the league's second-most points per game.
Let’s look at my 10 reasons why the Dallas Cowboys won't make the NFL Playoffs this season.
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No. 1: Schedule
The Cowboys’ schedule coming out of their bye brings five straight games against contenders. Two road games against San Francisco and Atlanta before back-to-back home games versus Philadelphia and Houston, with a trip to Washington D.C. to put a bow on it.
🚨 Complete #Cowboys 2024 schedule. 🚨
Discuss. pic.twitter.com/7x5stev91X
— Patrik [No C] Walker (@VoiceOfTheStar) May 16, 2024
This team could be broken by the following week’s Thanksgiving tilt against the Giants, who nearly defeated Dallas in Week 4. What will Jerry Jones do if this team is 4-7 for the holiday spotlight?
No. 2: Injuries
While no number of injuries can excuse getting blown out by almost 40 points at home, there’s little question that depth, on defense in particular, is being tested. Star edge rusher Micah Parsons (ankle) hasn’t been there to rush the passer, and Marshawn Kneeland (knee) is also on injured reserve. No DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) or Jordan Phillips (wrist) are also hampering the pass rush on defense.
DaRon Bland broke his foot before the season began while No. 3 DB Caelen Carson (shoulder) has missed time, which has put more pressure on Trevon Diggs to perform. Tight end Jake Ferguson also missed a pair of games with a knee injury and wideout Brandin Cooks is on injured reserve after complications from a knee infection. The lack of depth has been apparent all over the field for Dallas.
No. 3: Magnitude of Losses Against Premier Teams
Dallas has been destroyed by teams you’d expect to make the playoffs, especially in the first half. Their only convincing win was in Week 1 against Cleveland and Deshaun Watson, who we know is having a historically terrible year. They hung in for a last-minute comeback over the Steelers but have surrendered an average of nearly 40 points in losses to New Orleans, Baltimore, and Detroit.
The #Cowboys have had 3 home games this season. The score at halftime of each one:
- Week 2: 35-16 Saints
- Week 3: 21-6 Ravens
- Week 6: 27-6 LionsIf you stretch back to last season, Dallas was losing 27-7 at the half during their home playoff game vs Green Bay.
Yikes. pic.twitter.com/ry70qbY5xA
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 13, 2024
No. 4: Lack of Ground Game Investment
Rico Dowdle has been serviceable thus far, averaging 4.2 yards per carry in limited duty. He can usually get what is given, with minus 18 yards of Rushing Yards Over Expectation, per NFL Pro. That ranks 44th out of 57 qualified rushers. Unfortunately, Ezekiel Elliott sits at minus 54 in 55th and is tied for the worst YPC figure at 3.0 even, posting a horrendous 26.3% success rate.
Zeke has had a solid career but looks overmatched and slow, yet head coach Mike McCarthy has given him 38 carries to Dowdle’s 59. Zeke has 24 carries on first down with only 46 yards of output, while Dowdle has 32 for 112 yards (3.5 YPC). Jerry Jones needed to bring in someone else while McCarthy needed to give Dowdle more of the work.
No. 5: Poor Offensive Line Play
While the guard play has been solid between Zack Martin and Tyler Smith, center Cooper Beebe and tackles Terence Steele and Tyler Guyton have played poorly.
PFF grades are not perfect but help illustrate the point: Beebe’s 55.5 grade ranks 30th out of 37 qualified centers, while Steele has a middling 63.7 grade and Guyton is near the bottom at 49.7 for tackles. Tight end Jake Ferguson hasn't been able to provide the tackles much help in pass pro either.
No. 6: CeeDee Lamb Holdout Hangover
Lamb hasn’t eclipsed 100 receiving yards in a game following his late arrival to the practice field this offseason amidst a contract dispute. While Lamb did hit another gear after the team’s Week 7 bye last year, he had two games with over 115 yards by then. His catch rate hit a career-best 74.6% last year only to plummet to 58.2% early in ‘24.
BYE BYE HOLDOUT!!
Ceedee Lamb has agreed to terms on a four-year, $136 Million extension. The second highest-paid non-QB in NFL history. #Cowboys #NFL pic.twitter.com/gDtKiFCXZ7
— Kyle Youmans (@Kyle_Youmans) August 26, 2024
That’s only at 62.5% even on passes under 10 yards. Dak Prescott has acknowledged the connection isn’t locked in yet. Perhaps this would’ve occurred regardless, but it’s hard to overlook the missed reps this preseason.
No. 7: Lack of Discipline
Last year saw the Cowboys led the NFL with 964 penalty yards and they’re near the top of the leaderboard once again in 2024. Their 47 penalties through six games are tied for the fifth most in the league. While the players are the ones committing the infractions, any systemic issue like this that spans multiple seasons will ultimately rest on the coaches.
No. 8: Horrible Red Zone Production
Dak Prescott hasn’t looked himself for most of the season, but that goes double from inside the 20, where Prescott’s completion rate sits below 40% through six games. For reference, he completed 56% of red zone throws with a whopping 24 touchdowns to two interceptions. (He has already matched that INT figure in ‘24.)
We’ve established how Dallas doesn’t have a reliable ground game to lean on here, which means it falls on Dak. Brandon Aubrey is an elite kicker, but you need touchdowns in the red zone. Their 37.5% TD rate in the red zone is only ahead of Miami and New England through Week 6, with a 1.7 yards per red-zone play that ranks 31st. That’s not the company you want to keep in 2024!
No. 9: Subpar Rushing Defense
We briefly touched on this under the “injuries” umbrella, but this is another problem one can trace back to last season. Many remember Aaron Jones torching the Cowboys for 118 yards and three touchdowns in the 48-32 Wild Card loss to Green Bay.
Switching defensive coordinators from Dan Quinn to Mike Zimmer has not helped. Getting players such as DeMarcus Lawrence, Eric Kendricks, and Micah Parsons back would be great, but all three were present when Baltimore and New Orleans marched all over them.
No. 10: Jerry Jones
Jones is the owner, president, and general manager of the team. That third title is a major pain point, but this past August he said, “The reason I don't let somebody else be the GM is because I don't have anybody that I will let do it to do it right.” Things do not happen here without his stamp of approval, which means this all comes back to him.
The Cowboy's failures on the field are the result of failures by the front office.
But there's no GM to fire bc Jerry Jones is never going to fire himself (or his son).
Fail. Sell false hope. Profit. Fail again. For 29 years.
Because ego means more to Jerry than winning games. pic.twitter.com/ajeq4EQl2L
— Jonah Javad (@JonahJavad) October 17, 2024
This could've been Mike McCarthy, but all of his mistakes are still tethered to the boss. Jones would never tolerate this track record from anyone else, yet he appears destined to go down stubbornly swinging. The 47-9 loss to Detroit was a perfect birthday present from Jones, the GM, to Jones, the owner. He and Al Davis of the Raiders (in his later years) have taken historic franchises and jammed them into mediocrity with their stubborn ways.
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