RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 6, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
This week, we've got a surprising start from each league. First, we'll take a look at lefty MacKenzie Gore's dominant performance against the might L.A. Dodgers. Then, we'll break down Reese Olson's eight-strikeout day against the Royals.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of April 29.
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MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals – 53% Rostered
2023 Stats: 136.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 16.2% K-BB%
4/25 vs. LAD: Six IP, Seven H, One ER, Two BB, Four K
Gore had a dominant performance against one of baseball’s toughest lineups on Thursday, firing six innings of one-run ball in the tough-luck loss. Gore now has a 3.12 ERA and 2.93 FIP on the season. A former top prospect and a key return piece in the Juan Soto trade, there’s plenty of talent in Gore’s left arm. Is he finally realizing his potential, or will Gore go up in flames?
Originally the third pick by the Padres back in 2015, Gore ranked as highly as the No. 5 prospect in baseball by MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus in 2020. His star faded a bit after struggling to a 4.86 ERA at Triple-A, but the Nationals must’ve liked what they’d seen in Gore to target him in a trade. Gore works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and a changeup.
Gore’s most used pitch is by far his fastball at a 54.9% usage rate, and it’s easy to see why he favors his four-seamer. He’s added over 2.0 mph of velocity this season, going from 95.1 mph average fastball velocity in 2023 to 97.2 mph average fastball velocity in 2024. Velocity isn’t the only thing Gore’s fastball has going for it, as he also has above-average vertical movement with the pitch. Gore has also gotten better peripherals with the pitch in 2024, including an improved 11.8% swinging strike rate, .242 xBA, and .268 xwOBA.
Gore’s fastball was a whiff machine in this start versus the Dodgers, with him racking up 11 of his 17 whiffs with his four-seamer. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Gore dominate a lineup with his four-seamer, either, as he earned 12 of 20 whiffs with his heater in his 11-strikeout performance against Oakland earlier this year.
Even when batters make contact with the pitch, they aren’t squaring it up. Gore has an 86.5 mph average exit velocity against with his fastball, along with a 21-degree launch angle. Gore has extreme fly-ball tendencies, but allowing soft fly balls is a good thing as soft fly balls lead to outs. Between the added velocity, plus movement, and soft contact allowed, Gore’s fastball looks like a strong offering that can anchor an arsenal.
Following his fastball, Gore’s second-most-used pitch is his curveball, an 83 mph offering. Gore’s curveball is a harder offering with average drop and below average horizontal movement, making it a classic 12-6 curveball. While it’s his second-most-used pitch, opponents have hit it well thus far. Batters have a .333 AVG, .389 SLG, and .391 wOBA off Gore’s curveball this season.
The expected stats tell a different story, as opponents have a .242 xBA, .304 xSLG, and .338 xwOBA against the curveball. Batters also have a pitiful 82.6 mph average exit velocity against the pitch, so this writer is inclined to lean toward the expected stats than the actual outcomes at this point.
Mackenzie Gore Curveball pic.twitter.com/htvSXaXlmD
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 29, 2024
Gore rounds out his arsenal with his two best strikeout pitches, the slider and the curveball. The slider is nasty, with Gore averaging 91.6 mph with the pitch this season. He throws it harder than the fastball of 12 qualified starting pitchers. Gore is throwing his slider less often this season compared to previous years at 13.2% usage, but the pitch still has a .250 AVG against and an impressive 18.5% swinging strike rate. Even at his worst, Gore has been able to induce whiffs with his slider and that isn’t changing anytime soon. This is a legitimate strikeout offering that pairs nicely with the rest of his repertoire.
Gore’s changeup usage has exploded this season, going from just 2.9% usage last season to 13% this year. The issue is the pitch hasn’t been all that effective. Batters are hitting .333 off Gore’s changeup with a .778 SLG and .476 wOBA. He has a solid 12.9% swinging strike rate with the pitch, but only a 23.5% chase rate. He throws the pitch exclusively to right-handed hitters, which isn’t abnormal by itself, except Gore didn’t particularly struggle with righties last season. Righties had a .325 wOBA off him last season and a .347 wOBA off him this year. The changeup isn’t Gore’s best pitch, but it’s a decent fourth offering that may produce better results as the season progresses.
Something that has this writer excited about Gore is the reduction in walks in 2024. Command has never been the pitcher's strong suit, and he really struggled with walks when he first came up to the majors. Gore had a 12% walk rate his rookie season in 2022, which is untenable for most starting pitchers. He lowered it to 9.8% last season, which is an improvement but still higher than we’d like to see.
This year, Gore has a 7.4% walk rate and a 21.3% K-BB%, by far the best of his career. He’s also issued no more than two walks in any given start this season. This improvement in control is exactly what we wanted to see from Gore, and he could be in line for big things if he can maintain this walk rate.
Verdict:
There was a reason Gore was such a big pitching prospect, and a lot of fantasy baseball managers are going to find out that reason in 2024. With improved fastball velocity, two strong breaking balls, and a work-in-progress changeup, Gore’s stuff looks legit. He’s also cut down on his troublesome walk rate to a manageable 7.4%, another positive development. Gore was one of my favorite post-hype sleepers coming into the season, and I’m fully ready to succumb to confirmation bias. In all seriousness, I think Gore is a must-add player in 12-team leagues or deeper.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers – 18% Rostered
2023 Stats: 103.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 16.6% K-BB%
4/26 vs. KC: Seven IP, Three H, One ER, Three BB, Eight K
Olson was electric on Friday afternoon, fanning eight Royals over seven innings of one-run ball. He was a tough-luck loser in that one, with Olson’s Tigers somehow losing 8-0 despite such a strong effort from their starter. Tough-luck losses have been the story for Olson throughout April, as he currently sports an 0-4 record despite a 3.18 ERA and 2.83 FIP. Lack of run support aside, Olson has been excellent. Can the young righty keep it up, or will this Tiger turn into a kitty?
Originally a 13th-round pick by the Brewers back in 2018, he was traded to the Tigers in exchange for Daniel Norris. Detroit may’ve gotten a steal in that one, as Olson owns a 3.82 ERA and 3.75 FIP through 132 big league innings. Olson wasn’t a huge prospect by any means. He ranked as Detroit’s 12th-best prospect by FanGraphs in 2023. Olson works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball. He spreads his pitch usage rather evenly, with Olson throwing four pitches at least 18% of the time, but throwing no pitch greater than 25.9% of the time.
Olson’s most-used pitch in this start was the slider, and boy was it working for him. He threw the slider 26% of the time and notched four of his 13 whiffs with the pitch, good for a 36% whiff rate. A slower offering at 84.8 mph, Olson’s slider is characterized by its high spin rate and plus vertical movement. It’s a loopy slider that gets plenty of drop, making the pitch act as more of a slurve than a true slider.
Reese Olson Slider pic.twitter.com/cKHhT1J33w
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 29, 2024
The results on Olson’s slider have been incredible so far, with batters managing just a .167 AVG, .167 SLG, and .272 wOBA off the slider this season. Even better, the expected stats back up the performance, as Olson has a .144 xBA, .238 xSLG, and .282 xwOBA against his slider this season. He also has a monster 18% swinging strike rate with the pitch, along with a 30.6% chase rate. Olson had strong numbers with the pitch last season, including a 19.5% swinging strike rate and a 35.8% chase rate. Altogether, Olson’s slider looks like a plus strikeout offering that should have him racking up the whiffs and strikeouts.
The slider might be a great strikeout pitch for Olson, but it’s not even his best strikeout pitch. Those honors belong to his changeup, which Olson has dominated batters with in 2024. It’s harder than his slider at 86.5 mph and the pitch has exceptional drop. Batters have been stymied by the pitch, mustering a .200 AVG, .200 SLG, and .171 wOBA against Olson’s changeup. The pitcher also has a ridiculous 25.2% swinging strike rate and 38.8% chase rate with his changeup this season. Olson’s changeup was his most well-regarded pitch as a prospect, and it has not disappointed at the major league level. Between his slider and changeup, Olson has two excellent strikeout pitches at his disposal.
Reese Olson Changeup pic.twitter.com/PGKPOuGtzc
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 29, 2024
There’s a lot to like about what Olson has done thus far, but luck has certainly played a factor as well. He may’ve had some tough luck to be 0-4 on the year, but he also had fortune on his side in other aspects. First, it would be the lack of home runs allowed this season. Olson has not allowed a home run this season in five starts despite a 1.22 HR/9 last season and a 1.23 HR/9 at Triple-A last season. Home runs shouldn’t be a major problem for Olson, but he’ll certainly regress from a 0.0% HR/FB ratio.
The other area where Olson seems to have gotten lucky is his four-seam fastball. Batters are hitting just .244 against the pitch with a .241 SLG and .283 wOBA, but the expected stats from Statcast are much worse. Batters have a .270 xBA, .457 xSLG, and .376 xwOBA off Olson’s four-seamer. It’s taken a .269 BABIP off his four-seamer to produce respectable results, and that likely won’t last all season, especially with the 90.1 mph average exit velocity against the pitch.
Olson was able to outperform the peripherals on his fastball last season, but it’s too early in his career to say whether this is luck or a repeatable skill. This isn’t a deal-breaker for Olson as a starter, but something worth monitoring throughout the year.
Verdict:
It’s astonishing that Olson’s hot start has gone so unnoticed in the fantasy baseball world. Seriously, how is he just 18% rostered in Yahoo leagues? He is somehow less rostered than Michael Lorenzen, Albert Suarez, Logan Allen, Kenta Maeda, and Jameson Taillon, to name a few.
Pitchers with this type of strikeout upside don’t grow on trees; the whiff numbers on Olson’s slider and changeup are quite impressive, and that alone has me interested in him as a breakout candidate. He’s still a flawed pitcher with control issues and has had luck on his side, but why not take a shot on Olson?
He’s been excellent to start the season and the peripherals suggest that more strikeouts could be coming. He’s worth adding in 12-team leagues if you can afford the spot and must be rostered in anything deeper than 12 teams.
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