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Nick Mariano makes Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Baseball season, including ones for Trevor Story, Zach Neto, and Bo Naylor.
Bold predictions are a fun piece of the fantasy preseason. They're fun for you, the reader, to see our pipe dreams beyond talking about median outcomes and projections. And they give us a chance to talk about crazier outcomes that we don't usually get an opportunity to bring up.
There isn't much time left for me between keeping our rankings, projections, and more up to date, but I had to squeeze this in before Opening Day! These are 90th-percentile or higher outcomes that I am not saying one should bank on, but I've certainly taken my draft shots on them occurring here and there.
While these are not likely to occur, they still provide insight into players where I anticipate they'll beat their expectations. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X. Let's get right to it with a few of my bold predictions for the 2024 season.
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Nick Mariano's Bold Predictions for 2024
Trevor Story reminds you punks what a healthy, on-time bat looks like, going 30/30
I have sat back and watched countless Bostonians slander Story, who has dealt with multiple mismanaged injuries and barely any chance to find consistent timing on the field. An elite defender, Story has shown flashes of the massive power/speed tools in Boston and will have a starting job when healthy.
And while it isn’t Coors, Fenway is the third-best park for hitters per Statcast and doesn’t do its bats dirty when leaving altitude like Denver. His first full spring training in three years has yielded three home runs, three steals, and a 1.088 OPS over 50 at-bats. Get ready!
Trevor Story told Cora he wants to play 150-plus games.
"I was like, 'Let's go. Let's shoot for it,'" the manager said.
— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) March 26, 2024
Zach Neto goes 20/30, puts saying “Neat-O!” back into pop culture
As I wrote in a recent post-draft waiver piece, Neto hit .260 with 8 HRs/4 SBs in 40 games (148 PAs) between adjusting to the bigs and a back injury. He’s got the power, and Ron Washington has the need for speed to get ZN moving.
Neto is 4-of-5 on steal attempts over 62 PAs this spring. (He also has eight extra-base hits already.) The Angels are second this spring with 44 SBs, trailing only Milwaukee’s 45. Saddle up.
We’ve talked a lot about how great it will be to see Ron Washington’s influence on Zach Neto’s defense, but how about that baserunning?
Wash got the whole team movin’! 💪#GoHalos #Angels #AngelsBaseball #LAAngels #LTBU pic.twitter.com/NL1mtawecR
— Locked On Angels (@LockedOnAngels) March 27, 2024
Bo Naylor outproduces J.T. Realmuto (in HR+SB+BA), going within the top 100 in 2025
Naylor’s final 28 games in 2023: 99 PAs, .321/.434/.679 triple slash, eight doubles, seven HRs, 4 SB, 16:16 BB:K. He doesn’t have to smash quite that hard but that’s a ~30/15 pace even just over 120-125 games.
I won’t sit here and act like the R+RBI will be as plentiful in lesser Cleveland volume compared to JTR’s in Philly, but the power/speed/average profile will surprise many.
Bo Naylor, who went 20-HR/20-SB in the minors, can also do this 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/y8jMvG67sp
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) October 2, 2022
Teoscar Hernandez cracks 35 HRs, swipes 12 SB, with 220 R+RBI while hitting .280
Hernandez said he couldn’t pick up the ball well at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and the data backs it up. Not only did Statcast Park Factors score T-Mobile dead last among the 30 main venues (3-yr rolling average), but Hernandez hit .217 with a .643 OPS and 33% strikeout rate there.
He hit .295 with an .830 OPS on the road (29% Ks) and Dodger Stadium is league-average for righties (13th overall). However, its HR Factor is 126, which is tied for the highest with Cincinnati. Mix in LAD’s stellar supporting cast and we could pop!
Teoscar Hernández said he wasn't anticipating having to sign a one-year deal this winter, but that's been the state of the market.
As for his down 2023, he pointed to "feeling comfortable at the plate" as a big thing for him, alluding to his home/road splits at T-Mobile Park.
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) January 16, 2024
Jeff Hoffman, Trevor Megill, James McArthur, and Hunter Harvey combine for 60 saves, elite ratios, and 320 strikeouts
I love Jose Alvarado, but Hoffman ascending to Craig Kimbrel’s spot as the high-leverage right-hander should be sweet. Improved velocity led to a 33% strikeout rate alongside elite ratios. Megill had a 35% K-rate and a crazy 2.13 FIP behind the 3.63 ERA.
McArthur’s elite 23:2 K:BB in 23 ⅓ IP is more than William Smith can turn in. And no fancy new sweeper (or anything) will make me trust Kyle Finnegan over Hunter Harvey. Combine all four for a wild double-headed FrankenAce and this line: 260 IP, 25 W, 60 SV, 320 K.
Jeff Hoffman is one of the most effective RP in baseball as he utilizes his 3 plus pitches to generate whiffs and limit hard contact.
The Phillies bullpen may be the best in MLB, and Hoffman is as the forefront of their phenomenal pen. pic.twitter.com/uHnsgqhxsL
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 24, 2024
Quick Hits
-Seiya Suzuki is a top-10 MVP ballot
-Josh Naylor outproduces Paul Goldschmidt
-Jackson Chourio outearns Wyatt Langford in 5x5.
-Exactly THREE of Royce Lewis, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Mike Trout, Byron Buxton, Tyler O’Neill, Giancarlo Stanton, and Brandon Lowe clear 140 games played. Make sure you hold some paths to each! (I want Buxton and Stanton the most.)
-Jake Fraley and Daulton Varsho crush ADP expectations, going 25/25.
-Maikel Garcia swipes 40 bags with Bobby Witt Jr. and hits .275 w/ 10 HRs too.
-Luis Severino ends the season ranked higher than any NYY SP (pain).
-Justin Slaten is the waiver-wire RP hero of the second half after BOS trades the lot.
Even before spring training started, it felt like Justin Slaten was likely going to make the team.
Then he showed up to camp and started generating whiffs left and right. 5.1 IP - 2 Hits - 0 ER/R - 6 K - 1 BB.
He’ll quickly become one of their best arms.pic.twitter.com/2i3Tg9UsLZ
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) March 24, 2024
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