DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Valspar Championship With Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Aaron Rai, and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Valspar Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Valspar Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 5

 

Last Five Winners Of The Valspar Championship

2023	Taylor Moore	-10
2022	Sam Burns	-17
2021	Sam Burns	-17
2020	Paul Casey	-8
2019	Paul Casey	-10

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2023	2
2022	-2
2021	0
2020	2
2019	4

 

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

7,340 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded)

Despite the extensive course history returns of Sam Burns and Paul Casey winning the Valspar Championship in back-to-back seasons over the past five years, Innisbrook doesn't necessarily provide the most correlated answers regarding projected success.

Seventy-four bunkers and nine holes with water will always present the propensity to turn Copperhead into a challenging layout because of the forced layups and added distance needed with long iron proximity. That will come to fruition when diving into the fact that 67.5% of shots take place from 150+ yards. Essentially, this is placement golf that dictates an increased importance with mid-to-long iron play.

Twenty-four-yard wide fairways and three-inch thick rough add to that compact off-the-tee test. I would look for the wind to play some semblance of a factor, but players who can deliver a robust account of themselves in the Strokes Gained: Total aspect will be the names I am attacking. That is a boring answer to say good golfers will play well here, but I don't believe we need to convolute the process.

Any of the recalculations from within those strokes gained areas will be how I get different, but that strategy has worked out well for me in the past after hitting the winner here with Sam Burns and Taylor Moore in back-to-back years.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Copperhead	PGA Average
Driving Distance	272	283
Driving Accuracy	60%	61%
GIR Percentage	60%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	59%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.52	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Total - Wind (7.5%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

 

Total Driving + OTT (10%)

 

GIR + Proximity + ATG (10%)

 

Weighted Proximity 150+ (7.5%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outright	Odds	Unit Risk	Potential Win
Doug Ghim	55	0.13	7.15
Aaron Rai	60	0.12	7.2
Davis Thompson	100	0.07	7
Adam Hadwin	60	0.12	7.2
Sungjae Im	27	0.26	7.02

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I am going to change the structure of the article this week.

The image above shows where my values stand compared to DraftKings pricing. I will be on a handful of these options when push comes to shove, but let's instead pinpoint one name in each section and see if we can find the best choice for every tier.

Assuming we see Xander Schauffele tee it up on Thursday and not withdraw, there was a considerable gap between him and these other three names in the $10,000+ section.

Xander's lack of perceived win equity sometimes hurts him in these spots because the public prefers going the other way, which could make this an even more interesting spot to see where this ownership lands after another heartbreaking conclusion to an event for the American on Sunday at Sawgrass.

In my opinion, paying up for his Schauffele's talent is the correct move, especially when gamers are going to be flocking toward Sam Burns' course history or Justin Thomas' bounce-back potential at Copperhead.

Schauffele's first-place marks for weighted scoring and expected strokes gained total lapped the field.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I am curious to see where Sungjae Im lands with his popularity after a slow start to 2024, but it does feel as if the data is starting to trend again for one of the premier players in the field.

Im has massively improved some early-season data after averaging 4.8 strokes tee-to-green over the past two starts. That total eclipsed the negative-1.38 strokes he had gained, on average, during the previous five times he had teed it up.

It is going to take an increased return with the putter if we want to reach the whole upside of this answer, but Im was one of the significant climbers for me in my sheet when comparing his baseline putting to his anticipated totals when faced with green complexes similar to what he draws here at Copperhead.

I don't think gamers have seen enough to want to pay this price for the typically sound golfer when he takes on Florida tracks, making this a nice buy-low spot with upside.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

This is me trying to project where ownership will land between Aaron Rai and Doug Ghim above anything else, but I would assume we get a discount on Rai after everyone continues to jump onto the Ghim train.

Aaron Rai will likely carry some popularity, but 13 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better will place him behind only Maverick McNealy and Brice Garnett when looking into people who played TPC Sawgrass last week.

Rai graded 13th in my model for projected scoring at the Valspar, 17th for weighted proximity and will look to double-down on this recent quality form. His upside hasn't been as pronounced as we have gotten from Ghim, but the profiles are not that dissimilar when projecting out this event.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

We have since moved this wager over 27 points to -137 if you have access to my Discord channel at RotoBaller, but what a surprise it must have been to BetOnline that the Webb truthers turned their backs on him and backed Davis Thompson in a matchup.

Thompson's profile isn't perfect for safety markets, but the upside he possesses delivered top-20 after top-20 in my model from a statistical outlook.

Here were all the players to grade above him when I looked at nothing but a ceiling outcome and ignored the floor outputs.

 

$6,000 Options To Consider

There are a lot of high upside targets in this range if you are willing to ignore the form, but the safest profile for me when combine all factors came from Victor Perez. 

Perez's top-40 marks for weighted scoring and projected strokes gained total made him one of eight players in this field to achieve that result.

 

$5,000 Options To Consider

When I removed all players who had limited data, Justin Lower graded as the best value in this $5,000 section because of the six made cuts during his past eight starts.

Like any $5,000 option, Lower's profile isn't perfect, but his 15th-place grade for weighted proximity from 150+ yards is a game-changing element to consider.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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