RADIO
RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 21, 2023.
All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
This may be one of my favorite slates of the year so far. There are many top teams with great matchups, which is usually a struggle because of how expensive they are, but tonight that’s not the case. Yes, the teams are still expensive to stack, but there is so much value on this slate that no team is off-limits. Those are the best slates because you don’t feel locked into one type of build; allowing you to chase matchups rather than price points. Enjoy your lineup building tonight!
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 106-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Buffalo Sabres (BUF1 - Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin)
I wrote the Sabres up on Tuesday night, and although they got trounced by the Blue Jackets, it wasn’t the fault of their top line. Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, and Tage Thompson were finally healthy and playing together and they combined for two goals, two assists, shots on goal, and nearly 50 DraftKings points. That performance was far more like what we were expecting from the Sabres this year after last year’s breakout campaign. Tonight they could add the final piece of the puzzle, as Jeff Skinner has been skating with the team and may come off injured reserve in time for the game. If he does, then we could be at the start of a great run for Buffalo. If Skinner can’t draw in for this game, then Zach Benson should get the nod and is a worthy replacement for your DFS lineup. He’s scored an average of 13.5 DraftKings points per game over his last four starts and is priced at only $3,800. Either way, the Buffalo top line looks good tonight.
They have an amazing matchup at home against a Maple Leafs team that has struggled to stop anyone away from home this year. Toronto has allowed a slate-high 14.55 high-danger chances on the road over their last ten games, and advanced data says that they should have allowed over three even-strength goals per game. Martin Jones has looked good in net for the Leafs over his last couple of starts, but if Ilya Samsonov is in net (as is projected) it’s an even bigger boost for Buffalo.
Colorado Avalanche (COL1 - Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin)
The Avalanche are not an easy team to stack (especially if Cale Makar is in the lineup), but tonight they should be worth fitting into your lineup. They’ve scored over four even-strength goals per game over their last ten home games, which is the highest average we’ve seen over a ten-game stretch this year. Nathan MacKinnon is on fire, having recorded a goal or assist in every game since November 20; a streak of 16 games. He’s recorded multiple points in nine of those sixteen games. Valeri Nichushkin has a point in five straight games, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 17 of his last 20 games. Mikko Rantanen is the “weak” link, as he’s scored 15 or more DraftKings points in “only” four of his last five games (two of which were over 27 DraftKings points). No team in the league has a higher upside, and quite frankly their floor is ridiculously high as well.
Their matchup tonight is great, as they face an Ottawa team that is struggling on the road. They’ve allowed 3.09 even-strength goals per game on the road over their last ten games, and even with positive regression advanced data has them at robust 2.9 goals allowed. Two of their three defensive pairings have been very weak, and those are the defenders who will be on the ice for the most time with the Av’s top line. Check the DraftKings Sample Lineup on my Heat Map to see how you can make this line fit with a top goalie and top defender.
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell)
Rickard Rakell has been one of the most disappointing top-six forwards in the entire NHL this year. As a member of the Ducks he was one of their two or three most feared offensive players, but this year we use the term offensive in an entirely different manner when talking about Rakell. Perhaps he was playing hurt all year and the time he spent on injured reserve was good for him. He returned to the Penguins lineup on Tuesday and was immediately placed on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel rather than being sent back to the second line. If Sid and Guentzel can’t unlock Rakell, it may be time to panic. On Tuesday he showed some signs of life with two shots on goal in 14 minutes of ice time. The Penguins won the game, and Rakell looks to be back on the top line at a value price of $3,700. That price point makes it very easy to stack the entire Penguins top line, including Erik Karlsson.
Pittsburgh has struggled a bit at home recently, scoring only 2.04 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games, but advanced data shows that they’ve been unlucky. Pittsburgh was expected to score 1.21 more goals than they have, and that is the kind of positive regression we are looking for in an offense. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have allowed a healthy 2.69 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road, which puts them firmly on our radar as a defense we want to attack.
Others in consideration: WSH1, CAR1, TOR1, FLA1, MIN1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Arizona Coyotes (ARI2 - Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse, Nick Bjugstad)
The Coyotes have the chance to be the ultimate late-game hammer on this slate. They have a prime matchup in San Jose against a Sharks defense that is the most generous on the slate. Advanced data says that the Sharks, already a bad defense, have room to be worse as they’ve allowed almost three-quarters of a goal fewer at home over their last ten games than expected. Their weak point is the number of high-danger chances they allow per game; 14.12 per game at home over their last ten games.
Matias Maccelli was written up on Tuesday as he was riding a hot streak of double-digit fantasy points in five of six games. He came through again with another 12.1 DraftKings points on Tuesday on the strength of an assist and three shots on goal. His price has remained steady at $3,900 for three straight games; somehow the cheapest on his line. He’s a great one-off play or as part of a stack with his ARI2 linemates, as the Sharks have consistently given up strong production to second lines at home this year.
Others in consideration: COL3, SJ2, BUF4, CAR2, PHI2
Top Goalies to Target
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning)
While he may be a few more solid starts away from being cash-game-worthy, it’s time to start taking advantage of a priced-down Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’s a guy who has been an $8,000 goalie in the past, yet today he’s a couple hundred dollars cheaper than that. His matchup against the defending Stanley Cup champions isn’t ideal, but Vasi has been great at home this year.
He’s allowed only four total goals in five home starts, scoring an average of 19 DraftKings points. Compare that to his 8.4 DraftKings points average in seven road starts and it’s clear that we fire up Vasilevskiy in home starts and fade him on the road (for now). Tampa Bay allows an average of 31 shots on goal per game, and the Golden Knights take an average of 32.5 shots on goal per game. Anything in that range is more than enough volume to support Vasilevskiy’s price point.
Others in consideration (GPP): Charlie Lindgren, Carter Hart, Alexandar Georgiev, Thatcher Demko, Sam Montembeault, Tristan Jarry
Others in consideration (Cash): Sergei Bobrovsky
