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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for September 14 and 15, 2023 Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with the results from Week 3
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. Charleston Southern at one point had two touchdowns on Clemson without gaining a first down. Coach Prime has more wins in Boulder than the team did in 12 games last season. Texas gets Texas-sized revenge in Tuscaloosa. Southern Illinois became the first FCS team to beat a FBS team this year. Fordham followed with a win over Buffalo about an hour later.
We have five games before the weekend this week. Four of them are FBS vs. FBS schools. We have some really interesting ones heading into Week 3. This is the first week of the season where we don't have a playoff game, so we actually get a feel for how the 2024 regular season is going to feel. Well...kind of. Teams will be able to lose twice and still make the expanded playoff, so there is still more excitement in any week this season than there will be at any point next year.
I won't pick FBS vs. FCS schools. Those lines usually aren't offered up until Friday at the earliest. Judging by what most FBS teams did to their inferior foes in Week 1, they won't be very lucrative for you either. Besides, I don't want to pick more 40+ point spreads than I have to.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 3 (9/14-15/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Navy at Memphis (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is at -14 at most books now, so shop around. I haven't seen it under that and it's still at 14.5 in some spots. I really don't like these lines with Navy involved, but Memphis is good enough to cover this. I'll take the Tigers, but will likely leave it be.
Virginia at Maryland (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. The Terps had trouble covering this against Charlotte last week. Virginia has done a lot of healing in the last two weeks, and despite the gut-wrenching loss to James Madison, this offense made a lot of strides. I'll take the Hoos to not get covered.
Army at UTSA (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UTSA made me a lot of money last year, but they are battling some major injuries right now. It looks like Frank Harris will play, but he undoubtedly won't be 100%. The loss of Zakhari Franklin to Ole Miss and De'Corian Clark to injury are really slowing this offense down. I tend to think UTSA covers anyway, but I'm not betting much on them until I get a better read on this year's Roadrunners.
Utah State at Air Force (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I actually like the Aggies outright. Cooper Legas to Terrell Vaughn has worked like a dream so far this year. Air Force could barely move the ball against Sam Houston last week.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Illinois at Kansas(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. I actually went heavier on this bet than the confidence points would suggest. This Kansas offense is good this year. I'm curious to see what they can do in the very intriguing Big 12(14) this year.
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Will Sheppard is the only bright spot for the Commodores right now and that defense is a mess.
Ball State at (1) Georgia (-42.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Georgia could have covered this if they wanted to. It was 45-0 at the end of three.
(10) Notre Dame (-7.5) at North Carolina State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Only two QBs have thrown at least 10 TD passes this season with zero interceptions: Caleb Williams and Sam Hartman.
— John Walters (@jdubs1966) September 13, 2023
Remember all those interceptions Sam Hartman threw against the Pack while he was in the ACC? He doesn't either. Hartman exorcised the demons in Raleigh and is gaining steam as a Heisman candidate.
(12) Utah (-7.5) at Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This one was bogus. I picked it here before it was announced that Cameron Rising was out. I actually bet it at -6, so I came out with a win thanks to Utah scoring two touchdowns in the last two minutes. Baylor likely should have won this game, but Sawyer Roberston struggled more than Bryson Barnes.
Troy at (15) Kansas State (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kansas State is tough and disciplined on both sides of the ball. Kimani Vidal had nowhere to go for the Trojans as their 12-game win streak came to an end.
Nebraska at (22) Colorado (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
WOW...
The Nebraska - Colorado spread has been up for one day.
The NFL Week 1 odds have been up for months.
Even still, there are already more bets on Colorado's spread, than 31 of the NFL Week 1 teams.
The only team with more bets than Colorado is the Chiefs.
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) September 4, 2023
I bet my entire betting account on this one. That's how confident I was that Nebraska was going to get smoked. Jeff Sims is a turnover machine and Colorado does an excellent job of making in-game adjustments.
Purdue at Virginia Tech (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Purdue-Virginia Tech, a ? game that kicked off at around 12:20 pm Eastern, just went final. Weather delays are crazy—it was almost 9 hours between scheduled start time and actual end time.
— Cameron Songer (@CameronSonger) September 10, 2023
"I survived Purdue @ Virginia Tech 2023" shirts when
— Dan (@dnrx01) September 9, 2023
This was the craziest weather delay I've seen since Tulsa-Oklahoma State in 2011. The game didn't even kick off until after midnight and was going on live until 3:35 AM. It was wonderful watching live football during my normal waking hours and I am 100% convinced that it will never happen again.
As for this game, the loss of Ali Jennings for the Hokies hurt. It looked like Purdue came back out a little more put together than Virginia Tech did.
James Madison (-5.5) at Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Dukes have now won 18 straight against teams from the state of Virginia after they stormed back after the weather delay and ripped the heart out of the Hoos. Make no mistake about it...the Dukes are legit again.
UNLV at (2) Michigan (-36.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Just another methodical pounding by the Wolverines. Michigan is making a concerted effort to pass more this year, so we'll see where that goes.
(20) Mississippi (-7.5) at (24) Tulane: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I ended up changing this bet when Michael Pratt was ruled out on Saturday morning. I don't know if Tulane would have won with him, but they wouldn't have lost by 17 either.
(23) Texas A&M (-4.5) at Miami(FL): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tyler Van Dyke has gone from an UDFA to a possible day two pick.
— John Blair (@johnblairjunior) September 14, 2023
Tyler Van Dyke looks like a completely different player. Coaching matters, folks. This game was proof of that.
Iowa (-3.5) at Iowa State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Iowa just about pissed this one away, but their defense is too good to let that happen no matter how dysfunctional the offense may be. The Hawkeyes are a touch better with Cade McNamara, but he can't save this offense either.
UTEP(-1.5) at Northwestern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The sucker bet sucked me in. Northwestern looked like a real team for once...
Western Michigan at Syracuse (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The silver lining for the Broncos is that they led this game 7-0 before allowing 48 straight points...
Miami(OH) (-7.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How in the world did this team go into Las Cruces and win???
History https://t.co/KAqZzbLY9M
— Gage Larvadain?? (@g1baller) September 13, 2023
Not only did Gage Larvadain make Redhawks history with the longest play in school history and 273 receiving yards with three touchdowns, but he also threw a 70-yard touchdown. He's the player of the week. Seriously. I don't care what team you play, that's impressive.
Texas State at UTSA (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A hobbled Frank Harris wasn't going to cover this. UTSA needs De'Corian Clark back in the worst way.
Kent State at Arkansas (-37.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I have no idea how an offense with K.J. Jefferson and Raheim Sanders only scores 21 points on a MAC team at home.
Marshall (-2.5) at East Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We all knew that losing Holton Ahlers was going to be tough on ECU, but this offense looks utterly lost right now.
Tulsa at (8) Washington (-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That garbage-time Tulsa touchdown hurt. We all knew that Washington wasn't going to try to score again. The Huskies had this covered at 43-3...
Appalachian State at (17) North Carolina (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who do we need to bribe to make this a yearly thing? Two double-overtime games in two years. This is the kind of drama that football fans want to see. It's just a bonus that they hate each other.
The ACC was hellbent on expanding. It should have shopped local and added App State and ECU.
Instead, it decided to repeat NASCAR’s mistakes ..
Week 2 review in the ACC ... in Yellow Pad form
— Joe Giglio (@giglio_OG) September 11, 2023
By the way...that was pass interference on North Carolina in overtime.
SMU at (18) Oklahoma (-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Never in a hundred years did I think we would hold SMU to 11 points. It's a nice start for Dillon Gabriel this year and the receivers have been good enough. Tawee Walker looks like a solid back. I'm starting to become cautiously optimistic, but we are still going to get our asses beat by Texas.
New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Liberty may not be exactly the same as they were last year, but they are still pretty good. Kaidon Salter could start for a lot of schools.
UAB at Georgia Southern (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jacob Zeno went nuts and UAB still lost. I bet they wish they had DeWayne McBride right about now...
Ohio at Florida Atlantic (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Lajohntay Wester caught 12 passes for 101 yards and the Owls still lost. Go figure...
Louisiana (-5.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Grant Wilson was just a little bit better than Ben Wooldridge when it counted.
North Texas (-12.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That North Texas defense is nasty, and not in a good way...
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Phil Jurkovec threw two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but the comeback attempt fell short. Emory Jones looks like a completely different player than he was at Florida and Arizona State.
(11) Texas at (3) Alabama (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Texas-Alabama game was some damn good football.
It's the first time Texas has beaten a top 3 team on the road in 50+ years, so I think it's fair to say they are back.
And college football is better because of it.
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) September 10, 2023
I didn't expect an outright win from Texas, let alone a double-digit outright win, but you can't say that Texas didn't earn this one. Their defensive line is the best in the country. Yes, even better than Utah and LSU. T'Vondre Sweat played one hell of a game.
(13) Oregon (-6.5) at Texas Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
That interception return for a touchdown saved this one. I was pretty sure Oregon wasn't going to cover until this.
Jeffrey Bassa PICK 6 for the win!! I could watch this 100 times! #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/xBz3x3mm93
— SIDELINE REPORT (@SIDEL1NEREPORT) September 10, 2023
Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Gamecocks are still having nightmares about Jared Brown.
Connecticut at Georgia State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have gone higher on this one. Darren Grainger is a whole lot of fun to watch.
Middle Tennessee State at Missouri (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Some ESPN talking heads were saying Missouri could win the East. You guys are awfully quiet right about now...
Central Florida (-3.5) at Boise State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a highly entertaining game. Boise harassed John Rhys Plumlee the entire game. I would really like to see Ashton Jeanty as the featured back in this offense even when George Holani returns. That guy has some moves.
Houston (-9.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I really should know better than to believe in Dana Holgorsen by now. In other news, check out this catch by Luke McCaffrey.
Luke McCaffrey making the list! pic.twitter.com/SnzcsT7mQF
— Lachlan McArthur (@LachlanMcArthur) September 11, 2023
Rice nearly blew this after jumping out to a 28-0 lead. Previous Houston teams would have given up. This iteration of the Cougs may not be as talented as years past, but they feel like they have a little more heart.
Memphis (-21.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess I forgot that Seth Henigan is good...
(19) Wisconsin (-6.5) at Washington State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Washington State defense is better than you think. It started under Mike Leach but has flourished in recent years. The Cougars were in control of this game throughout.
Charlotte at Maryland (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Maryland defense is what is going to keep this team from being special. They have tons of talent on offense and Roman Hemby is better than we could have imagined. The Terps were down 14-0 after the first quarter.
Eastern Michigan at Minnesota (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So...I guess Minnesota is back to the point where they have no interest in letting Athan Kaliakmanis throw the ball around. Don't they remember the Wisconsin game last year?
Arizona at Mississippi State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona did everything they possibly could to lose this game. Jayden de Laura threw four interceptions. Jacob Cowing lost a fumble. And they still took this to overtime.
Temple at Rutgers (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The final score is misleading. Temple was down six with about ten minutes to go when the wheels fell off. Two fourth-quarter interceptions by E.J. Warner allowed this to get out of hand.
UCLA (-13.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The last thing that Brady Hoke wanted was a track meet. That's exactly what he got. The UCLA quarterback situation still isn't completely figured out, but the explosiveness that TJ Harden and Dante Moore bring to this offense can't be ignored.
Air Force (-13.5) at Sam Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It took Sam Houston 6.5 quarters to get their first FBS points. Don't be shocked if it takes them 6.5 games to score their first FBS touchdown with the way this offense looks...
Southern Mississippi at (4) Florida State (-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Florida State has scored at least 35 points in 8 straight games. According to FSU, it's the longest streak in nation:
66 vs. Southern Miss
45 vs. LSU
35 vs. Oklahoma
45 vs. UF
49 vs. Louisiana
38 vs. Syracuse
45 vs. Miami
41 vs. Georgia TechAveraging 45.5 over those 8 games
— Ira Schoffel (@IraSchoffel) September 10, 2023
The Seminoles make it look easy. Adding Keon Coleman to this offense makes them even better.
Stanford at (6) USC (-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So much for the Stanford offense...
Auburn (-5.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cal was in control of this game (as much as you can be when up by three points) until Jaydn Ott went down. I don't think Sam Jackson is the answer either. Ben Finley completed seven of 11 passes. This was just an ugly, ugly game.
Oklahoma State (-3.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oklahoma State used three quarterbacks and three running backs again. Arizona State kept going for it on fourth down and kept right on missing. Those turnovers on downs led directly to the OSU win.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I was a bit below average in Week 2 at 23-24. That puts me at 50-49 on the season. I'm still mad about the Utah one. That extra five points would have helped! That's a 10-point swing!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-4 (5-8) = -3
2. 13-10 (24-19) = 10
3. 5-7 (14-14) = 0
4. 0-2 (2-6) = -16
5. 3-1 (5-2) = 15
I broke even for the second time this season. I still have the six points from last week, but am still down 105 points after six-plus years of adding the confidence points. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!
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