RADIO
Tyler Allgeier is a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper at running back and an ADP draft value. Target Allgeier as an undervalued RB in fantasy football drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~125 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~159
ANALYSIS: Given how Allgeier exceeded expectations as a rookie last year, it seemed like the Falcons could afford to wait until the third or fourth rounds of the draft to add another running back. Keyword: seemed. In actuality, Atlanta spent its first-round pick on Robinson, the consensus No. 1 running back in the draft.
Allgeier was a late bloomer in 2022, but once he started to perform, he didn't slow down. From Weeks 15 to 18, Allgeier totaled 79 carries, 431 rushing yards, six catches, 52 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Over that span, he ranked as the RB5 overall in PPR leagues, putting him ahead of studs like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs. Perhaps most promising is that Allgeier's four-week span of dominance coincided with Desmond Ridder's first four starts in the NFL. The two rookies developed an instant rapport, and there's reason to be excited about both players in 2023.
Even with Robinson's arrival, there is also room for Allgeier to exist. Last season, the Falcons had the lowest carry rate for their RB1 among all 32 NFL teams. What does this mean? When Atlanta dialed up a run play, it gave the ball to its RB1 just 56 percent of the time. Its RB2, RB3, and other players handled the remaining 44 percent. Not only was 56 percent the lowest mark in the NFL, but it was an enormous distance away from a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, who boasted an 89.6 percent carry rate for its RB1.
With Robinson on the roster, Atlanta's RB1 carry rate is likely to increase, so maybe we can't expect the backfield to operate exactly as it did in 2022. Still, the data shows that the Falcons are unafraid to disperse touches among its running backs. Arthur Smith raved about Allgeier earlier this offseason, and Robinson ran some routes as a wide receiver early in OTAs. There is clearly an opportunity for both players to get on the field and thrive this coming season, so there's no reason to avoid either young back.
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