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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/17/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, July 17, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 46-33-3 (+4.35 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Orioles
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BAL -102
LAD: Emmet Sheehan | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez
I'll start things off out in Baltimore as the Dodgers head into town to take on the Orioles. Both of these offenses can score in bunches. For that reason, I'll take a look at the over here.
The Dodgers will send Emmet Sheehan (2-0, 4.35 ERA) to the mound. Sheehan has been somewhat of an interesting case in his first four MLB starts, bringing in a 3.25 ERA but a 5.38 xFIP. He projects to a 5.14 SIERA in this one and will take on a Baltimore offense that ranks 10th in wOBA (.324) and eighth in wRC+ (107) against righties. They bring in a projected .352 wOBA against Sheehan's pitch types and a .368 weighted wOBA overall.
Conversely, it'll be Grayson Rodriguez taking the mound for the Orioles. It's been a while since G-Rod took the mound for Baltimore and he brings in a 2-2 record with a 7.35 ERA. His 6.01 xERA and 3.90 xFIP show signs of positive regression, but just how much? Rodriguez has been good in AAA (4-0, 1.96 ERA across 41.1 innings), but it's a tough task to take on this Dodgers lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA (.337) and wRC+ (113) against righties.
While both young pitchers have shown signs of a bright MLB future, I think this one will be a high-scoring affair. I'll grab the over at 9.5, which we can get at -104 on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.04 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Angels
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAA -122
NYY: Luis Severino | LAA: Griffin Canning
I'll wrap things up in Anaheim, the same as we did yesterday. This time, though, I'll be on the Angels' side of things here as the Yankees head into town after a weekend set in Colorado.
The Yankees will send Luis Severino (1-4, 7.38 ERA) to the mound. As shown by the numbers, Severino has been brutal this season, while his expected stats (7.00 xERA, 5.21 xFIP) don't offer much to be excited about either. Especially against the Angels, who rank fifth in wOBA (.336) and fourth in wRC+ (113) against right-handed pitching. LA projects to a .338 wOBA against Severino's pitch types and a weighted wOBA of .334.
The Angels will send Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.62 ERA) to the mound. Canning is coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers where he allowed four runs in just 2.2 innings of work. It was the second of a pair of back-to-back difficult outings for Canning. He'll look to bounce back against the Yankees, who rank 26th in wOBA (.302) and 21st in wRC+ (92) against righties.
The Angels have the advantage both on the mound and at the plate, but the Yankees do have the bullpen advantage in this one. For that reason, I'll be grabbing the Angels' first five moneyline here, which we can get at -132 on FanDuel.
Pick: Angels F5 Moneyline (-132), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.67 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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