NFL Free Agent Risers for Fantasy Football - Old Faces, New Places

Andersen Pickard identifies a few NFL free agents on new teams in 2023 that could be fantasy football risers and undervalued draft targets based on ADP.

Free agency can be one of the most exciting times in the NFL. Whether your favorite team is spending big money to be competitive or accumulating draft picks in preparation for a rebuild, every roster move deserves attention and is just one puzzle piece in a greater organizational strategy.

NFL general managers obviously don't make roster moves with our fantasy teams in mind, but that doesn't mean that an individual signing can't have an equally positive impact within the fantasy football world. Sometimes, worlds align and a roster move creates a great opportunity for a player to deliver key production on the field and in fantasy football.

Let's explore five players who signed with new teams during free agency and subsequently saw their fantasy value increase ahead of the 2023 fantasy football season.

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QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders

It was a relatively successful offseason for Garoppolo, who went from being a 49ers castaway to signing a multi-year deal with the Raiders. Although his spot on the 53-man roster is contingent on passing a physical, let's assume he gets healthy in time for Week 1 and is confirmed as Vegas' starter. Garoppolo is primed to thrive with a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including stars Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, as well as free agent newcomer Jakobi Meyers and rookie tight end Michael Mayer.

One area where Garoppolo struggled in San Francisco was air yards. As talented as Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk may be, neither is the deep threat that Adams is. Still, the veteran quarterback was reliable where it mattered most last season, posting a 55.6 percent pressured completion rate and 59.0 percent red zone completion rate, both of which should carry over to Las Vegas. Garoppolo will be a very steady QB2 option in 2023.

RB Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills

People tend to forget that Harris was on pace for 225 touches, 1,046 rushing yards, and 13 touchdowns through his first four games last season. Then he suffered an injury, and between Rhamondre Stevenson's breakout and Harris never getting fully healthy, his time with the Patriots came to an underwhelming end. He is primed to bounce back in a huge way with the Bills, who signed Harris to handle the bulk of their rushing duties while leaving James Cook in a pass-catching role.

Perhaps what's most exciting about this development is that the Bills want Josh Allen to run less, especially around the goal line. This translates to immediate goal-line production for Harris, who is just one year removed from a 15-touchdown campaign in 2021. Don't shy away from drafting Harris as a high-end RB3 option.

RB Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers

A four-year deal is a huge commitment for a 26-year-old running back who hasn't accomplished an awful lot, and this deal could certainly backfire long-term. However, when you assess the addition on a short-term basis with redraft leagues in mind, there's actually a lot to be excited about. Sanders finished as the RB15 last season, and that occurred despite losing touches to his fellow running backs, missing out on touchdowns thanks to Jalen Hurts' athleticism, and watching plenty of volume fall into the hands of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

Now, Sanders projects as a three-down back with the Panthers and is arguably the most talented player in Carolina's offense. He faces minimal backfield competition and should be relied upon heavily as the Panthers look to take pressure off the first overall pick, quarterback Bryce Young. Sanders was never really a must-draft player in Philadelphia, but his new landing spot writes a different story. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on Sanders as your RB2 in 2023.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots

Another year passed and we still didn't see Smith-Schuster return to the caliber of play he delivered in 2018 when he finished as the WR9 overall with 111 catches, 1,426 yards, and seven touchdowns. Excitement about Smith-Schuster's fantasy value after the Tyreek Hill trade dwindled when Patrick Mahomes relied heavily on Travis Kelce and dispersed his targets to a variety of wide receivers. Now though, Smith-Schuster has another opportunity to shine as the alpha receiver in New England.

Bill Belichick showed his commitment to the receiver, signing him to a three-year deal while waving goodbye to Jakobi Meyers and his 98 vacated targets. Some of Smith-Schuster's most promising metrics from 2022 include 1.94 yards of target separation and +64.8 expected points added. With Bill O'Brien taking over the offense and a whole lot of vacated targets up for grabs, Smith-Schuster just might bounce back as a top-24 receiver in fantasy football.

TE Irv Smith Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

If you've been following along this offseason, you'll know that this isn't my first time hyping up Smith, who was one of the offseason's biggest ADP risers at the tight end position. Between injuries and competition, he never quite lived up to expectations in Minnesota, but there's a brand new opportunity for him to produce in Cincinnati. Nobody needs Smith to become the league's next elite tight end; that would be far too bold of a request for someone in an offense that also features Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon.

Still, it's absolutely reasonable to expect Smith to match (or exceed) Hayden Hurst's production from last season. Hurst leaves behind 70 vacated targets, which is great considering Smith has proven that he can be reliable when the ball is thrown his way. (He had just three drops and a 92.6 percent true catch rate in 2022.) The path exists for Smith to earn significant volume and finish as a fringe top-12 fantasy tight end in his first year with the Bengals.

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