DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The U.S. Open Golf Advice (2023)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The U.S. Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The U.S. Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The U.S. Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 60 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 19

Last Five Winners Of The U.S. Open

Expected Cut-Line

Los Angeles Country Club

7,314 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass

Even though we do not have any long-term statistical data on the course for the week, I could not be more excited about what Los Angeles Country Club might have in store for fans and players alike during the 123rd iteration of the contest.

Wide-open fairways, sometimes as large as 70-80 yards in width, may give you the wrong idea that this is some bomb-and-gauge venue that will highlight easy scoring, but consider this one of those setups that is so masterfully pieced together that the run-offs and undulation changes will create challenges for what likely becomes a second-shot property that will demand an entire repertoire out of the bag if you want to capture the title.

The venue is set to play fast and firm throughout, making the dried-out patches, hard bunkers and thick rough literal hazards that accentuate the difficulty for those trying to score. I always say that challenging scoring mitigates some of the putting concerns because quality ball striking is the most pronounced statistic to measure. However, I decided to weigh recent putting in my model because of the fast and firm nature of the land.

I want players that can be trusted in all four levels of the game, and these unique yardage distributions add a wrinkle to the equation since not only will you need the ability to score from deep, but there are random shots required, including a par-three that could play as short as 80 yards on any given day.

Add that to the strategic nature, massive elevation changes, blind-shots and sloping lies aspect of the track, and we might have the most unique major championship venue that we have gotten in 10+ years.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Strokes Gained Total Firm Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Hard Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Fast Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Thick Rough (7.5%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Scrambling (7.5%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Top 50 In All Six Categories:

23 of 26 names of have the cut through two weeks of tracking this in my model. Here are the results from last week.

This Week:

I will start updating these weekly on my model.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Brooks Koepka ($10,800) - A Brooks Koepka answer is one that you rarely get from me, but how can we ignore his combination of tournament history and current form? Koepka's four top-five finishes at the U.S. Open over the past six years may only be outdone by his second/first-place start to the season in the two majors, making the American a savvy option that does look to be traveling under the radar in ownership to begin the week. I can't get there for an outright, but there are ways to consider him in various markets, including as a cash-game staple to builds.
• Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) - What has happened to Scottie Scheffler's putter? We might be discussing one of the all-time great seasons in history if the American had been neutral over this tumultuous stretch that is seeing him lose shots with his flat stick at an alarming rate. The tee-to-green acumen is pronounced in any model you build, but will he make enough putts to win the contest? I lean no since it is hard to turn things around at a U.S. Open venue, but who can say a negative output won't still result in another top 10?
• Favorite GPP Play: Let's see where ownership trends. It is hard for me to imagine Cantlay comes in this low.
• Fade: None
• Most Likely Winner: Viktor Hovland ($10,000) - I am drinking the Kool-Aid this week on Viktor Hovland. These hard courses with tons of rough have historically been kind to the Norweigan, and my model noticed an increased upside potential because of the challenging par-fives that masked some of his lower birdie or better rates on those holes. The total driving, weighted proximity and short-game returns provided the best rank in my model of all names in this section, generating a possibility that Hovland's first major lands in the city of stars.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,600) - Five top 14 finishes over the past five years at a U.S. Open track has Xander Schauffele knocking on the door for his first major championship. Schauffele's third-place grade for expected strokes gained total inside my model is a pronounced output, and the additional third-place rank for weighted scoring adds to the overall appeal.
• Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($9,900) - Players with the most upside don't always capitalize on that answer. McIlroy has been unable to close any event recently, and the concern comes into play if the winning score lands in the single-digit under-par zone. That is a mark McIlroy has yet to win at during his career. I am going to guess the Irishman posts a top 10 but fails to end his major drought, something that would continue to frustrate him.
• Favorite GPP Play: Cameron Smith ($9,000) - Sign me up for the 30s you can find on Cameron Smith throughout the betting market. These wide-open venues that allow creativity around the green are where Smith has his best upside, and the course reminds me a little of Kapalua in the sense that he will be able to spray the ball off the tee marginally but get away with it. The lack of intrigue is heavily worth GPP consideration.
• Fade: Collin Morikawa ($9,300) - This might be a hot take, but Collin Morikawa should be priced in the mid-$8,000s versus these weekly tags that he receives in major championships. The California + challenging course narrative will keep the ownership around 10 percent, but I don't have much interest in a number that isn't sub-five.
• Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($9,400) - To me, Cameron Smith and Max Homa are interchangeable for either section. I decided to do them in the order I did because Smith's lower price tag and similar ownership does play nicely in a contrarian sense. However, users have gone from all in on Homa to all out. We see that with everyone seeming to have a 50/1 outright ticket from months ago that they no longer want, but I am still fine jumping into the mix in the 30s. Homa is my number one golfer in projected strokes gained total at LACC.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600) - Matsuyama has quietly produced five straight top-30 finishes since the Valero Championship, even though users seem to have noticed when we look at his early ownership projection. The tournament history is stout, his stats look steady enough and the form makes him worth a bare minimum of cash-game consideration.
• Most Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900) - There are some similarities between Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick that stretch beyond their country of origin. Fitzpatrick entered last year's U.S. Open with shaky tournament history, although trending form allowed him to capture his first major title. Many of those parallels are showing in the data for me as I run my numbers for Hatton here in Los Angeles. The 31-year-old looks to be a legitimate threat on these fast and firm courses.
• Favorite GPP Play: No early leans for where I want to be overweight outside of Hatton, but I don't want him to be in every section.
• Fade: Dustin Johnson ($8,300) - The price tag is so cheap that I imagine Dustin Johnson ends up being one of the slate's more popular choices. My model doesn't discredit his chances of making a cut and landing within the top 40, but I am unsure if the upside is as high as it used to be five years ago. I'd rather take a shot at half the ownership on Jason Day if directly comparing lower-priced choices.
• Most Likely Winner: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

• Safest Play: Justin Rose ($7,700) & Denny McCarthy ($7,200) - I expect both players to be popular for a good reason. Justin Rose has been steadily producing top-25 finishes for what feels like the entire season, whereas McCarthy possesses that same current trajectory and is also blending it with stellar production historically at these fast and firm tracks.
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,700) - We might be having a different conversation about Joaquin Niemann had he not left for LIV. Everyone seems to forget Niemann just turned 24 a handful of months ago. That high-upside game of his can win at any challenging course, and his low-ball flight should play well at a venue that will allow that in all facets of what the intangible brings to the table.
• Favorite GPP Play: Russell Henley ($7,100) - I am curious to see what kind of top-40 price we get on Russell Henley. His ownership is looking to be about five percent as of early Monday morning, making him someone underpriced when you consider he graded inside the top 31 of all three iterations of my model.
• Fade: Min Woo Lee ($7,000) - Consider this nothing more than an ownership answer. Lee has the upside to find success if he lands in the 1-2% range, but 7-10% is a much greater ask for an extremely volatile golfer.
• Most Likely Winner: Wyndham Clark ($7,500) - We hit a wall quickly around this section for who can win this tournament versus who we are happy to get a top-10 or 20 finish out of for the week. Clark is one of those names who possesses legitimate win equity at some of those 80/1+ prices in the space, and his complete transformation with his irons has turned him into a threat that the market still needs to catch up on for his new-found potential.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Andrew Putnam ($6,800) - Andrew Putnam's short game has generated respectable finishes in recent U.S. Open tournaments. The current form is trending after a fifth at the Memorial in his last start, and it goes back to him always seeming to perform on a fast track. I will be searching the market for a potential top-40 wager.
• Most Upside: Kurt Kitayama ($6,800) - Kitayama is the epitome of a boom-or-bust golfer. If the ownership stays sub-five percent, I will be taking shots on his upside potential.
• Favorite GPP Play: I am going to let ownership form before giving an answer.
• Fade: Sam Bennett ($6,500) - Bennett has been a cut-maker early in his career on the PGA Tour, but I'd have to imagine that his Masters performance will weigh heavily on the mind of most users at this price. If that creates too much ownership, I would rather fade.
• Most Likely Winner: Kurt Kitayama ($6,800) 

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