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Justin Carter looks at four NFL players who were productive as rookies in 2022 but who are set for sophomore slumps in 2023. These are players who fantasy football players may want to avoid.
Sometimes, a strong performance as a rookie is a sign that a player is a future NFL star. Other times, a player ends up not living up to that rookie promise in year two. Today, we're going to aim to explore the latter kind of players — guys whose rookie performance looked like a sign of an impending breakout, but who have just a few too many concerns heading into those second NFL campaigns,
For example, remember Robert Griffin III? As a rookie in 2012, he threw for 3,200 yards with 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His 1.3% interception rate was the best in the league. The next year, he doubled his interception rate, throwing them on 2.6% of his attempts, and his completion percentage fell from 65.6% to 60.1%. The promising rookie campaign didn't end up leading to a productive sophomore campaign.
Let's look at some 2022 rookies who enter 2023 with murkier outlooks than they had last year. Below are three players who worry me for various reasons as we head into the next NFL season.
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Christian Watson - WR - Green Bay Packers
Watson had a solid rookie season, as he caught 41 of his 66 targets for 611 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added seven carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Good numbers for the second-round pick, as he had three 100-yard games and had a four-game span at one point where seven of his 15 receptions went for touchdowns.
Watson's chances of having a full breakout in 2023 were greatly impacted by the departure of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was traded to the Jets. Now, the Packers will turn to the unproven Jordan Love under center.
It's fine to be optimistic about Jordan Love, who threw 32 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2018 as a sophomore at Utah State. But in 2019, those numbers changed pretty dramatically, as he dropped down to 20 touchdowns and saw his interception number jump to 17. And he just hasn't seen serious run since. He made one start back in 2021, completing 55.9% of his passes for 190 yards, one touchdown, and one pick.
All that's to say that Love is a hugely unproven commodity, and it's not only hard to trust him but it's also hard to trust any of his pass catchers. Watson being the No. 1 receiver should keep him from completely crashing, and maybe his numbers even end up around where they were last year because of volume, but Watson was heading for a huge year if he was catching passes from Rodgers; he's heading for just...well, just a year with Love throwing him the ball.
Kenneth Walker - RB - Seattle Seahawks
One of the biggest knocks on Walker pre-draft was that it wasn't clear how productive he'd be in the passing game, and that concern proved to be fairly true, as he was targeted 35 times, catching 27 passes for 165 yards. PlayerProfiler's advanced stats on running back receiving don't look great — he was 26th among running backs in routes run and route participation.
We saw the real-life reaction to that lack of production back in April when the Seahawks used a second-round pick on UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet. Walker had 19 receptions over his three college seasons; Charbonnet has two seasons with more than 19 receptions and finished his career with 75 catches.
Walker managed 1,050 rushing yards and nine touchdowns last season, but he also played 70% or more of the team's snaps in seven games. Sharing the field with Charbonnet isn't just going to cut into his (already low) pass-game usage; Charbonnet is going to get carries as well, limiting Walker's upside.
He's still going to be a solid player, but Walker with an uncontested backfield was in line to be a low-end RB1. He now looks like more of a mid-tier RB2 — definitely still draftable at his ADP, but with a lower floor and ceiling than he had pre-draft.
Brock Purdy - QB - San Francisco 49ers
Only two rookie quarterbacks threw for over 1,000 yards last year. One of them was Kenny Pickett, who threw just seven touchdown passes and really has nowhere to go but up — even if I personally don't think he really goes up too far. The other was Brock Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Purdy ended up playing nine games for the Niners, throwing for 1,374 yards on 67.1% passing with 13 touchdowns and four picks,
While he played well, there's no guarantee that Purdy even plays in 2023, for two reasons: first, injury, and second, the 49ers have one of the most interesting QB rooms in the NFL. On the injury front, Purdy had a UCL injury in the NFC Championship Game, and there have been questions about his availability to open the season. It sounds like he should be good to go, though.
Even if he's healthy, he's no sure bet to start. Trey Lance was the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and the 49ers gave up significant draft capital for him. Does that still matter? Who knows. Lance has started just four games over his first two seasons, but he should at least have an opportunity to win the starting job.
Then there's Sam Darnold, who the team brought in this offseason. Darnold probably won't win the starting job, but he can't be counted out. He had a career-high touchdown rate in six starts for Carolina last year, throwing one on 5.0% of his attempts.
Even if Purdy wins the job, who's to say he recaptures last year's magic? Sure, he was really good down the stretch, but we only have a seven-game sample of Purdy in the NFL. There are just a lot of things that are potentially working against Purdy.
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