RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 11, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
We have two disparate pitchers to break down this week. First, we'll be looking at the young fireballer Edward Cabrera's dominant outing on Friday. Then, we'll sink some effort into groundball specialist Adrian Houser and his strong start on Sunday.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 06/05/2023.
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Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins – 53% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 52 IP, 5.02 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 13.4% K-BB%
06/02 vs. OAK: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Cabrera came out firing on Friday, putting up a zero in the run column for the first time all season. He struck out 10 en route to his fourth victory of the season, lowering his ERA to 4.50 in the process. Cabrera has shown flashes of brilliance at times, and Friday night was another glimpse into the sky-high potential of this young right-hander. Was this a sign of things to come, or just a talented arm taking advantage of a weak opponent?
A highly touted prospect coming up, the expectations for Cabrera were driven even higher by the organization he pitches for. With the organizational triumphs of arms like Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and (at the time) Trevor Rogers, the Marlins were starting to gain a reputation for their strength in starting pitcher development. It was more than the logo on his cap, however. One look at Cabrera in action, and it’s easy to see why scouts fell in love with the guy.
Listed at 6’5”, 217 pounds, Cabrera has the prototypical starting pitcher build. He also has the prototypical starting pitcher arsenal, working with five different pitches. Cabrera has a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup all at his disposal. With so many options to choose from, one might assume that none of these pitches stand out, but that’s where this hypothetical person is wrong. There is a standout pitch for Cabrera, and that would be his changeup.
His most commonly used pitch, Cabrera throws his changeup a whopping 30.4% of the time. Few starters use their changeup more frequently than Cabrera, but none throw it harder. Cabrera averages 92.7 MPH on his changeup, the highest among starting pitchers (min. 50 IP) by a full 1 MPH over the second-hardest changeup thrower, Hunter Greene. For context, the average starting pitcher’s fastball is 93.5 MPH, and Cabrera routinely tops that with his offspeed pitch. He pairs that high velocity with low spin (1,714 RPM on average) and above-average horizontal break to create a devastating offering. Here are a few examples from this start, because it’s just so pretty to look at.
This is a dazzling pitch. This is everything an evaluator could ever want from a changeup, and Cabrera’s changeup has the makings of an elite strikeout weapon. It’s played out that way thus far, as opposing batters have done little more than flail helplessly at Cabrera’s changeup. Opponents are hitting just .190 off Cabrera’s changeup with a .248 xwOBA and 19.8% swinging strike rate this season. Perhaps more impressive, Cabrera has a monster 44.4% chase rate with his changeup on the year.
Cabrera’s changeup looks great, so why isn’t he a superstar yet? It’s not a question of stuff for Cabrera. His other secondary offerings – the slider and curveball — have double-digit swinging strike rates and an opponent average under .207. He can touch 99 with the fastball and is in the 88th percentile of fastball velocity. The talent is here. For Cabrera, it comes down mostly to command and polish.
Cabrera’s command issues are no secret to anyone familiar with the young man, but what might be most concerning is his lack of development. He has walked an astonishing 14.2% of the batters he faced, which is terrible, but also a step back for Cabrera, who walked 11.3% of batters in 2022. When things are bad, they tend to unravel for Cabrera, who has walked at least four batters in six of his 12 starts this season. His opponent seems to be the biggest driving factor in his walk rate as well. In games where Cabrera has walked two or fewer batters, the opponents have an average wRC+ of 94. In games where Cabrera has walked four or more batters (he hasn’t walked exactly three), opponents have an average wRC+ of 101.5 (as of June 5, 2023).
Looking at his minor league career, there seems to be a pattern of Cabrera figuring things out his second time at a level. He cut his walk rate by 2% in his second year of AA and reduced it by 4.4% on his second go-round at AAA. Progress isn’t necessarily linear for young players, so there’s plenty of time for Cabrera to course correct, but as it stands this is an untenable walk rate for a major league starter.
On the bright side, Cabrera has a 2.89 BB/9 over his last four starts and has a 3.18 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 30% K rate over that stretch. The competition factor comes into play again, however, as his opponent’s had an average wRC+ of 90.5 during that stretch. Still, Cabrera can only face who’s on his schedule, and he’s executing splendidly. When he starts doing it more consistently and against better opponents, we’ll have a breakout on our hands.
Verdict:
Long term, there’s a lot to like about Cabrera’s future. From a pure stuff perspective, Cabrera is in elite territory. His changeup has characteristics that no other major league starter can replicate, his curveball is a legit strikeout weapon in its own right, and he throws nearly 100 MPH. That makes him an exciting player to watch, evaluate, and prognosticate about. That does not make him a fantasy superstar right away in 2023.
Poor control has limited his success thus far, and Cabrera has taken a step in the wrong direction with a bloated 5.59 BB/9 this season. His recent performances have been a sign of improvement, as Cabrera has drastically cut down his walk rate over his last four starts. His quality of opponents during that stretch may be questionable, so it could either be Cabrera taking advantage of a weak lineup, or a sign of improvement. Cabrera is talented enough that if he’s available in your league he’s worth the add. Heck, Cabrera is more available than Jordan Montgomery, and that itself is a crime.
Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers – 7% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 24.1 IP, 4.07, 3.28 FIP, 9.1% K-BB%
06/04 @ CIN: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Who’s House(r)? Adrian’s House(r). At least, that’s what Houser should be saying after Sunday’s dominant performance. Houser went into Cincinnati and held the Reds to one run on six hits, lowering his ERA to a cool 3.45 on the year. A longtime Milwaukee Brewer, Houser has had his moments at times, including a 3.22 ERA over 26 starts in 2021. Can he replicate past success, or was this yet another instance of a pitcher beating up on a weak opponent?
Originally acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade, Houser has been in and out of Milwaukee’s rotation over the last five seasons. His exceptional groundball rate and ability to limit home runs helped him thrive despite the lack of a dominant secondary pitch, especially in a power-friendly environment like Miller Park American Family Field (Look, not all us Brewers fans are over the name change yet. They had to change a street name in Milwaukee because of this!). However, his pitch-to-contact style can make him volatile at times as he’s more frequently subjected to the simple, beautiful randomness of balls in play. His lack of strikeouts makes him unappealing to most fantasy players as well. If chicks dig the long ball, then fantasy baseball nerds definitely dig the strikeout, and Houser (5.46 K/9 this season) often comes up short.
Like Edward Cabrera, Houser also works with a five-pitch arsenal, but that’s about where their similarities end. Houser uses a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. He’s got plenty of options on the mound, but for Houser, it’s all about the fastball. He’s thrown one of his two fastballs 70.7% of the time this season, giving him the highest fastball usage in MLB this season (min. 30 IP). He favors his two-seam fastball (also known as a sinker) the most, using it 43.9% of the time. Some say the sinkerballer is a dying breed, but Houser keeps the tradition alive by epitomizing the classic sinkerballer style.
At 92.8 MPH on the gun, Houser’s sinker is down a full MPH from previous seasons, but the velocity dip has only slowed Houser down in the physical sense, not the figurative one. Houser has a 59.3% groundball rate with his sinker, up 9% from last season. He also has an incredible -3-degree average launch angle against his sinker, nine degrees lower than last season.
Houser’s overall 53.7% groundball rate is well above average, but where he really shines is power suppression. Houser has let just two balls leave the park this season, and has a stellar 0.7 HR/9 rate over his last three seasons, making him a top-10 performer by this metric over that three-year stretch. Limiting home runs is always a good thing, but it’s especially important for a pitcher deficient in other areas such as Houser.
To say Houser is below average in strikeout rate is to say Egypt is below average in glacial formations. He was great at limiting home runs over the last three years, but he has a paltry 16.2% strikeout rate over that same period, making him a bottom-10 performer by that metric. Strikeouts don’t seem to be a consideration for Houser, whose most commonly used pitch when ahead in the count is still a fastball (four-seam against lefties, sinker against righties). His 14.1% K rate this season is the lowest of his career, and his 6.4% swinging strike rate is tied for the second-lowest in the majors (min. 30 IP). This isn’t exactly a revelation about Houser’s game, rather it’s to illustrate how deficient he is. Houser’s strikeout rate is so low that it’s an active detriment in Roto leagues.
Baserunners are also an issue for Houser, who’s had a WHIP lower than 1.44 just twice in his career. Not only does Houser allow a plethora of hits thanks to all the contact he permits, but he has a pitiful 9.4% career walk rate. He’s cut that to 5.2% this season, which is a great sign, but seems to have come at the cost of additional hits. Houser has allowed 10.9 H/9, much higher than his career mark of 8.6 H/9. His .336 BABIP against isn’t helping, but Houser also has his highest zone rate since 2019, highest swing rate since 2020, and still has a 1.44 WHIP on the season. It’s hard to say whether the issue has been solved or if Houser has simply sacrificed even more contact to limit walks. It will be interesting to see if his improved walk rate holds as his BABIP normalizes.
Verdict:
Ultimately, Houser isn’t talented enough to have shallow league appeal. There will always be someone more interesting than a 30-year-old sinkerball pitcher on waivers. That doesn't mean he has no fantasy value. Houser’s career 3.94 ERA is respectable, and there is no reason that he can’t put up a sub-4 ERA season again. He won’t have big strikeout numbers, and he won’t have a good WHIP, but he’ll contribute in ERA, plays for a (hopefully) winning team, and has a pretty secure grip on his rotation spot. That’s more than you can say for most sub-10% rostered pitchers at this point in the season. Don’t spend any FAB or expend resources to acquire him, but he's got value in 15+ team leagues or NL-only leagues and has streamer appeal in shallower leagues against soft matchups. His next start is Friday against Oakland, and it doesn’t get much softer than that.
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