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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/19/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, May 19, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 22-18 (-0.59 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Pirates
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PIT +146
ARI: Zac Gallen | PIT: Johan Oviedo
I'll start this weekend off out in Pittsburgh, where the Diamondbacks and the Pirates take the field for a weekend series.
The Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen (6-1, 2.35 ERA). Gallen, the current NL Cy Young favorite, has been nothing short of awesome this season. He's regressed, only slightly, over his last three starts (2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP). However, he projects to a 3.05 xFIP against a Pirates lineup that projects to a .275 wOBA and comes into this one ranking 21st in wOBA (.305) and wRC+ (79) against righties.
On the other hand, the Pirates will send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo (2-3, 5.14 ERA) has been really struggling over his last three starts, averaging just four innings per outing, while bringing in a 10.22 ERA and 2.68 WHIP. While he's faced good offenses (Baltimore, Toronto) in that span, Arizona clears both of them in terms of wOBA (.340) and wRC+ (112) against righties. They project to a .394 wOBA in this one against Oviedo, who projects to a 5.35 SIERA.
The Pirates have been struggling of late, dropping seven of their last ten. They did win 8-0 in Detroit on Wednesday, but have lost four straight Oviedo starts, and have to take on the best starter in the National League in this one. We'll take the better odds while leaving the bullpens out of it, going with the F5 money line on FanDuel at -154.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Money Line (-154), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.54 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -225
COL: Karl Kauffman | TEX: Martin Perez
I'll head down to Texas for my second play of the day, as the Rockies head into town to take on Martin Perez to the mound.
The Rockies will send Karl Kauffman to the mound for his MLB debut. We'll look to attack the 25-year-old right-hander, as his eight starts in AAA this season have been... not great. He's tossed 37 innings this season while pitching to a 7.78 ERA, with a whopping 12.8% HR/FB rate and just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Things won't be easy for him today against the Rangers, who rank eighth in wOBA (.334) and sixth in wRC+ (112) against righties.
The Rangers will send Martin Perez (4-1, 4.25 ERA) to the mound. Perez has seen some serious regression from 2022 to 2023, including his strikeout rate (-4.2%), fly ball rate (+7.5%), and home run per fly ball rate (8.6%). He projects to a mediocre 5.16 SIERA in this one, but I'm going to back him and the Rangers here anyway. The Rockies struggle against lefties, particularly on the road, ranking 29th in wOBA (.270) and wRC+ (66).
I know Perez has been relatively bad this season, but I believe these odds are just... strange. The Rockies have dropped four straight interleague games against left-handed starters, and the Rangers are just clearly the superior team here. The money line is a bit too juiced for my liking, so we'll grab the run line which we can get at just -110 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.10 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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