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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/4/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
Thursday slates are always lighter than, say, Tuesday or Friday but that doesn't mean we can't scoop up value. In fact, Thursdays are the best as we get a full day of MLB action to take in with games kicking off around 1 PM ET and ending with the Blue Jays and Red Sox who kick off at 6:10 PM ET. Clearly, the west coast clubs are playing earlier in the afternoon.
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can get on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets vs. Detroit Tigers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYM (-190)
NYM: Justin Verlander | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez
The Detroit Tigers pulled off the sweep of the Mets in Wednesday's doubleheader, outscoring the visitors 14-6 in the process. Interestingly, the Tigers beat up on former Detroit star Max Scherzer in his return from suspension before facing a legendary Tiger in Justin Verlander on Thursday.
It's Verlander's first start of the season after he dealt with a muscle strain in his throwing shoulder. By now, everyone -- especially Tigers fans -- should be wary about betting against Verlander but don't expect him to be let loose to 100% capacity in this one. He's missed more than a month's worth of action and the Mets will surely proceed with caution with their $40 million man.
Taking on Verlander will be Tigers ace Eduardo Rodriguez who has been excellent this season, especially of late. The left-hander owns a stout 2.21 ERA through six starts but has allowed all of two earned runs over his last four outings spanning 26 2/3 frames. He's gone at least six innings in three of those four outings.
With Verlander unlikely to get terribly deep into this game, the Mets will need to use a good chunk of a bullpen that pitched a lot Wednesday. Game one starter Joey Lucchesi pitched just four innings while Scherzer worked just 3 1/3 frames after being tagged for six runs on the night. The Mets entered the day with an 11th-ranked 3.51 ERA from their bullpen but also 17th with a 4.18 FIP.
The Tigers aren't going to boast a high-octane offense in all likelihood the rest of the way but it's a group beaming with confidence and they'll have their ace behind them along with a bullpen that's been excellent after a slow start to the season.
Pick: Tigers +1.5 run line (-111, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BAL (-164)
BAL: Grayson Rodriguez | KC: Jordan Lyles
The Orioles and Royals tangle in Kansas City on Thursday afternoon and it's rookie sensation Grayson Rodriguez getting the nod from the visitors.
The right-hander has been sold in his young big-league tenure with a 4.07 ERA through five starts but he also sports a 3.00 FIP, 3.51 SIERA, and big-time 32.4% strikeout rate on the season. The good news for Rodriguez is he'll face a Royals club that is tied for 25th with a 25.3% K% on the season, so be sure to check out those Rodriguez strikeout props as well!
Nonetheless, the Royals' offense is also tied for dead last with a .279 wOBA on the season. This group has struggled, as has their bullpen which ranks 27th with a 5.50 ERA. This club has been no good from top to bottom.
Jordan Lyles takes the ball for the Royals Thursday and he's been touched up to the tune of a 6.11 ERA/6.17 FIP while once again allowing plenty of homers in the form of a 2.29 HR/9 across six starts. Lyles' 55.8% fly-ball rate combined with a 13% barrel rate that ranks in the league's 9th percentile might have a little something to do with more home run woes.
Tack on an Orioles bullpen that ranks eighth with a 3.03 ERA and first in all of baseball with a 3.35 FIP and 20.3% K-BB% on the campaign and you should see the O's cruise by the Royals in this one.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 run line (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit)
Good luck, folks!
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