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New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones was selected No. 6 overall in the 2019 NFL draft, so needless to say, his expectations were sky-high as he entered the NFL. Jones flashed as a rookie with 26 total touchdowns to 12 interceptions in just 12 starts, but his second and third seasons in the league led many to believe he'd be nothing more than a bust. Jones posted 49 turnovers in 38 games through his first three seasons with the G-Men and looked to be on his way out the door.
However, his 2022 campaign under new head coach Brian Daboll revived his young career as he posted a fantasy QB1 season, led the Giants to a playoff berth and win, and secured a lucrative four-year contract extension worth $160 million with $82 million guaranteed.
In this edition of dynasty risers and fallers, we'll dive into Jones' 2022 campaign, his dynasty value and trade market, and his 2023 fantasy football outlook. Let's get to it!
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Jones got the Giants out to a solid start in Week 1, completing 17 of his 21 passing attempts for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He added 25 yards on the ground in the win, but he did lose the 21st fumble of his career. Either way, it was a solid QB16 performance (17.0 fantasy points).
He posted mediocre stat lines in Weeks 2 and 3, totaling 372 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and one interception, but he racked up 100 rushing yards during the two-game span – setting the stage for his upside on the ground to come.
One of his marquee fantasy performances of the year would follow in Week 4, as Jones completed just eight passes for 71 yards, but rushed six times for 68 yards and two scores. It was his first QB1 day of the year (QB8).
Weeks 5 and 6 were largely uneventful as he posted QB17 and QB20 finishes. That said, he proved to have a QB2 floor, which is more than we could say about him during his first three years in the league.
Jones again boomed in Week 7 against the Jaguars. The 25-year-old from Duke University completed 19 of his 30 passing attempts for 202 yards and a touchdown to zero interceptions and carried 11 times for 107 yards and a rushing score. His 28.8 fantasy points ranked third among QBs and the fantasy and dynasty community began to fully buy in.
Thereafter, Jones posted weekly finishes as the QB25, QB14, QB3, QB20, QB12, QB11, and QB26 from Week 8 to Week 15. He produced plenty of spike weeks, especially since managers likely drafted him to be their backup signal-caller and single-QB leagues and QB2 in Superflex leagues. However, his Week 16 and 17 outings in the fantasy semifinal and championship rounds were the finishing touches on his electric year.
When it mattered most in the final two weeks, Jones posted games of 21.8 and 36.2 fantasy points – totaling 511 passing yards and three passing touchdowns (one INT) with a 74.2 completion percentage and 125 rushing yards with two rushing scores.
His 58 fantasy points over the final two weeks of the fantasy season led the entire league at all positions, with Austin Ekeler being the next closest with 52.0 half-PPR fantasy points. At his ADP of QB28, those two weeks alone made him a league-winning preseason draft selection.
Overall, Jones posted 3,205 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 708 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and just three fumbles lost. The turnover issues that plagued him often throughout his career were resolved in 2023 and he ranked seventh among quarterbacks in total fantasy points.
Per Playerprofiler.com data, Jones' breakout campaign saw him rank inside the top-10 signal-callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.57), true completion percentage (75.7%), red zone completion percentage (64.3%), true passer rating (94.0), and QBR (60.7). He did all this despite having a wide receiver group consisting of Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James, and Darius Slayton for much of the year.
Daniel Jones Dynasty Value/Market
While player valuations will vary widely from league to league, KeepTradeCut.com is a helpful resource for getting an idea of a player's value. These crowdsourced rankings have Jones as the dynasty QB16 and the 45th most valuable player or draft pick overall (two-QB/Superflex leagues). At this time last year (mid-April), Jones was valued as the QB30. Needless to say, he saw a huge value leap and can now be considered a key piece of a contending dynasty roster and one of the best QB2s possible.
He now sits just below Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson in the rankings.
Daniel Jones Dynasty Value
Jones is locked in as the Giants' starter moving forward and we couldn't say that about him a season ago. The team added former Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller via trade, signed Parris Campbell and Jamison Crowder, and surely plans to add more weapons early in the 2023 NFL Draft, so the weaponry should be upgraded in 2023.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
In early FFPC draft ADP, Jones is coming off the board at the QB13 spot. Star running back Saquon Barkley is reportedly refusing to sign his franchise tag so that'll be a situation worth monitoring, but the pass-catching group can only improve in 2023. Sterling Shepard will return from an ACL tear, and Campbell and Waller will be upgrades from Richie James and Daniel Bellinger.
Expect New York to target a high-end WR like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quinten Johnston, or Zay Flowers in this month's upcoming draft, but they could also be a potential suitor for Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins.
Either way, Jones' rushing prowess should give him at least a mid-tier QB2 floor with a mid-tier QB1 upside. There's always a possibility he simply played over his head in 2022, but the Giants are committed to improving the situation around him and he finally has an offensive line that isn't a bottom-five unit in the NFL. In single-QB leagues, it's nerve-wracking to count on him as your starter, but he's a great QB2 option in Superflex or two-QB formats. The NFC East should produce a ton of shootouts, so I'm in on Jones for 2023.
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