Keep It Simple, Stupid - Finding Homers and Strikeouts Throughout the Draft

1 year ago by Jon Anderson

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Rotisserie fantasy baseball is a complex game. The best players give equal attention to each category, build balanced teams, and then prune their teams effectively throughout the year. Not everybody has the time for that though - and it's a lot easier said than done. Sometimes we can do just fine focusing in on the "main" category on each side of the ball and just building a team with those stats being the focal point.

For hitters, it's home runs. The best feeling you get throughout the year is when a guy you started goes yard - it's great. It's really, really fun to lead your league in homers. Homers are also highly correlated with RBI, another one of the five standard categories. So if you're ahead in homers, you're ahead in RBI as well. Those two categories have the highest correlation of all - so it makes sense to make sure you're solid there.

For pitchers, it's strikeouts. Not only is strikeouts a category in almost all leagues (it's often highly weighted in points leagues as well), a high strikeout rate also can do wonder for a pitcher's ratios. You cannot damage your ERA or WHIP by striking a hitter out. Now, all of this is baked into the ERA and WHIP projections, of course, but the upside pitchers are all guys with strikeout ability.

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Picks 1-25

It also turns out that homers and strikeouts are two of the most projectable and predictable categories. We know who can hit homers and who can strikeout hitters. It just makes sense to really nail these two categories in your draft, and that's what I'm here to help you with today. I will go through the whole draft (400 picks) and highlight names that you can get to bolster your team in these categories all the way down.

In addition to what I said earlier, home runs have become a much more scarce resource as compared to the years 2018-2019. You have probably already adjusted to this, but it's important to realize that the 30+ homer hitters are few and far between now.

# of hitters hitting 30+ HRs

2019: 58
2021: 43
2022: 23 👀
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) January 27, 2023

This could all reverse overnight, of course - we have no clarity on what kind of baseball the league will be using in 2023. But for now, the best bet is that we will see home totals closer to 2023 than 2019. If we can't expect more than 25 hitters to hit 30+ bombs, I want at least three of the guys projecting to do on my team. If we look at the aggregate projections, only 19 hitters project for 30+ homers. Of those names, 15 go in the first 25 picks. Pair that with the fact that steals are sure to increase this year, and I think the wise choice is to get your hands on two of these 15.

Homer Picks

Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Mike Trout, Austin Riley

This is the only group of hitters where I'm going to throw several names at you like that. If I can have two of these players in my first four picks, there is no chance I don't make that happen. I don't want to restrict myself to definitely taking two with my first three picks, but I think that is a perfectly fine idea this year.

Strikeout Picks

Only three starting pitchers go in the top 25, so this is an easy one. The top two raw strikeout projections belong to Gerrit Cole (243) and Corbin Burnes (234), so grabbing one of those two in the second round provides you with a nice groundwork.

The ideal first two if you're focusing on homers and strikeouts would be Aaron Judge and one of those pitchers, but I think it's perfectly acceptable to go with two hitters to start the draft - it's not that hard to catch up in strikeouts later.

Picks 26-50

Homer Picks

All of the hitters in this range have at least moderate power, but Matt Olson really stands above the rest. Since 2018, he is fourth in the league with 152 homers hit. He projects for 30+ quite easily, and the average homer projection for him this year is 35.

Strikeout Picks

It would be foolish for me not to say Jacob deGrom here, and I don't want to be foolish, so I'm saying Jacob deGrom here. Since 2020, Jacob deGrom has a 42% strikeout rate. If you're not familiar, that's really good. The next highest SP (30+ GS) is Carlos Rodon (who is also in this pick group, so there's your consolation prize) at 33.5%. It's not close. deGrom can lead the league in strikeouts in 150 innings, and he probably would if that materializes. You know the risks with him, so let's not dwell on that.

Picks 51-100

I'm opening up the pick range here, so I'll give a couple of names for each.

Homer Picks

I mentioned that since 2018, Matt Olson was fourth in home runs. One of the names ahead of him is Kyle Schwarber, who is available in this pick range. He is likely a negative for your fantasy team in batting average and steals, but the power is unquestioned. He trails only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in barrel rate over the last two seasons with his elite mark of 19%. The homers will be there.

Other options: Corey Seager, Willy Adames, Byron Buxton

Strikeout Picks

This is a really deep pick range for SPs. There are five starters here projecting for 190+ strikeouts. The highest strikeout rate and most exciting skills of the bunch belong to Cristian Javier. He posted a 31% K% in 2021 and increased that to 33% last season. He went to the heights of a 15% SwStr% last season, and that came almost entirely from the rotation - which is really impressive. I have some doubts about the walks and home runs he might allow, but the strikeouts are not up for debate. A 230-strikeout season is well within range for him.

Other options: Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray

Picks 101-150

Homer Picks

Things are getting a little bit more interesting here. By this time in the draft, you have an idea about what your team has and what it lacks. If your team lacks power, you can catch up in this tier. Between picks 100 and 150, there are seven hitters projecting for more than 25 homers.

My favorite of the bunch is Giancarlo Stanton. What you find is that most of the later-round homer sources come with batting averages that are quite awful. Stanton hurt you there last year with his .211 batting average, but his career mark of .264 and his 2021 batting average of .273 show us that we don't necessarily have to be hurt by Stanton in that category. The guy is certainly in the top five in the whole league in raw power, and to me, this ADP doesn't make a ton of sense. Stanton has 50+ homer potential, and I'm drafting a lot of him this year.

Other options: Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Santander, Christian Walker, Hunter Renfroe

Strikeout Picks

Hunter Greene runs away with it here. Since 2021, at all levels, Hunter Greene has made 48 starts and has struck out 318 batters. That is a 31.8% K%. It was fair to hesitate on that strikeout projection for him in the Majors, but he put those concerns to bed with a 30.9% K% in his 126 big league innings. Much like Javier, we might have some problems with walks and homers allowed this year, but the strikeouts aren't going anywhere. This is a guy that could very well lead the league in strikeouts.

Other options: Blake Snell

Picks 151-200

Homer Picks

It's getting tougher to find players with a confident 20+ homer projection at this point, but one guy stands out here and that is Rowdy Tellez. He pounded 35 homers in his first year as a full-time starter in Milwaukee, and he is right back in that situation again this year. The 13% barrel rate was great. He's another guy that we probably won't get a good batting average from and he won't steal any bases, but 30+ homers are expected.

Other options: Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez

Strikeout Picks

Even with the "down year", Charlie Morton still put up a strong 28% strikeout rate last year. There are concerns about his age (39), but he hasn't had trouble striking out hitters yet so I don't think we should think it becomes a problem this year. The other thing to note here is that once we're past pick 150 or so, we still have plenty of high strikeout rate pitchers, but most of them are younger guys that have limits on how many innings they can throw. I could have highlighted Dustin May or Jeffrey Springs here, but I just think Morton is a much better bet for 200+ strikeouts than those two because he will throw as many innings as he can handle this year, and you just can't say that with the other two.

Other options: Lucas Giolito

Picks 201-250

Homer Picks

The 25+ homer projections are gone now. That has a lot to do with hitter skill, but it also has to do with playing time. The name I'm picking out here is Joc Pederson, who is a good example of this. Over the last two years, Pederson has a 12.5% barrel rate. Last year, he went for a 15% barrel rate. The problem is that you can't start him every single week because he gets benched against left-handed pitchers. That makes him tough to draft in weekly roster lock leagues, but in a daily league situation - there are few batter value picks for home runs than Pederson.

Other options: Ryan McMahon, Seth Brown

Strikeout Picks

It's slim pickings here on the pitching side as well. The pick I'm making is Patrick Sandoval, who projects for 162 strikeouts this year to lead this grouping. That is somewhat close to his ceiling, however, since he will likely be a part of a six-man rotation. Furthermore, his 24% strikeout rate last year was far from elite. There is some upside there with the great swinging-strike rates he's put up over the last two years, but I don't see any real path to 190+ strikeouts from Sandoval.

The other options we could get a lot of strikeouts from in this tier are guys like Andrew Heaney, Jack Flaherty, and Edward Cabrera. There are major health concerns for the first two there, and Cabrera's spot in the rotation is far from solidified.

Picks 251-300

Homer Picks

There's only one player to pick out here, and that is Jorge Soler. He had a bad year last year, largely due to injury, but in his 300 plate appearances, he still did manage 13 homers (a 25+ homer pace). He is one of the hardest-swinging hitters in the league, and that comes with a bunch of homers between his strikeouts.

Strikeout Picks

There is almost no safety among the SPs past pick 250, but Tyler Mahle almost fits that description. We have seen some good news about his pitch arsenal this offseason, and the guy has at the very least long been a guy that throws a good number of innings with an above-average strikeout rate. I like Mahle a lot at this new super-low ADP.

Picks 301-350

Homer Picks

I can't even make a confident pick here. Nobody projects for more than 20 homers and all of the guys with actual power in their bat have serious playing time and/or injury concerns (Jarred Kelenic, Marcell Ozuna, Francisco Alvarez). The one guy with some pop and a relatively safe starting job is Jared Walsh, who I have been drafting as a bounce-back candidate. He is absolutely not a 30+ homer guy with a "good not great" barrel rate and a high strikeout rate. However, if he stays healthy and in the lineup, I think he'll clear 20 homers pretty easily.

Strikeout Picks

With so few options to choose from, it makes picking Sean Manaea pretty easy. He has not had a good fantasy year in recent times, but he does strike hitters out at an above-average rate. He is now a Giant, which is a positive move for him, and we've seen some elevated velocity from him. Manaea is a safe bet for 130+ strikeouts this year, and that's not easy to find after pick 300.

Picks 351-400

Homer Picks

We're really rolling the dice at this point, but one guy I like for cheap/free homers is Kerry Carpenter. In 517 plate appearances last year, he hit 36 homers. Of course, 30 of those were in the minor leagues. In the Majors, he still posted an 11% barrel rate and a better-than-average 7% Brl/PA. While we must question the strikeout rate (28%) and even the playing time (if he struggles), the power seems to truly be there.

Strikeout Picks

Josiah Gray is the man for the job here. Almost nobody in this range has a firm lock on a rotation job, and I doubt we see a single one of these pitchers throw 175 innings this year. Gray is the closest to that, as a talented pitcher on a really bad team. The Nationals still have him in their future plans, so we'll see a lot of Gray on the mound this year. He had a disastrous 2022 season, but over the last two years, he has posted strikeout rates of 25% and 24% - a couple of points above the league average. He also has shown great swinging-strike rates in the past, so there's plenty of upside here.

I could see Gray throwing 180 innings while averaging more than a strikeout per inning, but the median projection of 160 innings and 160 strikeouts is probably a good bet.

That's it, and that's all. Draft a bunch of these names throughout the draft and you set yourself up nicely in two very important categories. Sometimes the best way forward is a simple way.

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