RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - American Express

The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for the Sony Open. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - American Express

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Patrick Cantlay

Alternate - Andrew Putnam

I don’t think I’ll fire Patrick Cantlay up in a major championship environment this year, and while there are other elevated events that the Californian is worth serious consideration for, I’m content to pull the trigger this week in his home state.

He’s historically thrived in both California-based tournaments and events with Pro-Am formats. Although Cantlay hasn’t actually won the AmEx (yet), a pair of T9s and a runner-up finish over his last three trips to La Quinta let us know that he’s very comfortable with these three courses, as well as the leisurely pace of the lengthy Pro-Am rounds that are the norm in this event. Who knows, maybe the molasses-like Cantlay takes some sort of wicked pleasure in the six-plus hour rounds he’ll take part in this week?

A bit of trivia…Cantlay wears a Goldman Sachs hat and is the only athlete the 154-year-old investment bank has ever sponsored. How did the partnership come about? Cantlay played a Pro-Am event with Goldman CEO David Soloman a few years ago and the two hit it off. My man Cantlay is out here closing freaking endorsement deals during these hit and giggles. Winning one should be no problem.

Yearly Earnings - $0
Yearly Cuts Made - 0/1

Josh Bennett - Brian Harman

Alternate - Tom Hoge

Yearly Earnings - $138,908
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/1

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Spencer Aguiar - Brian Harman

Alternate - Aaron Wise

It is funny because for as bad as last week went from a pick-making standpoint, there weren't many clean routes that would have been ideal. Maybe I should have gone with my alternate of Corey Conners and not saved him for down the road, but I am okay with setting a slow pace for this contest, as long as we can get some money on the board during these weeks where I don't have a pick I strongly want to make.

With other tournaments where I want to use Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau and the handful of questions surrounding Patrick Cantlay and his clubs, I have decided to go back toward the bottom of my playable options and select Brian Harman, a golfer who leads this tournament with 31 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better.

Sure, there are some upside concerns, and it is not as if we want to give events away, but Harman's four top 21 finishes at this course over the last five years will provide a noteworthy feel for the property, and when we add to that the Pete Dye success he has shown in the past and 11 consecutive made cuts on tour, I am okay with rolling out a golfer that hopefully will churn out a top-25 finish.

Remember, I am running a marathon here this season, not a 100-meter dash, and in the words of Byron, I am fine having to play "ketchup."

Yearly Earnings - $0
Yearly Cuts Made - 0/1

Byron Lindeque - Aaron Wise

Alternate - 

Ol Kuchar (T7) and his rocket-powered Zimmer Frame took care of business and earned $231,865 for Ketchup Kings … yes, I have given my OAD slot a cheesy name that represents everything we stand for at KK LLC. If you are behind in your OAD, we are here to help you catch up to the leaders using an arbitrary, yet very logical vetting process. Call 1-800-OAD-KING for further information about this pyramid scheme.

This week’s Ketchup King is none other than Aaron Wise. Based on his ownership in the DFS market, not a lot of people seem to think that he stands a chance here. The general sentiment seems to be that he is one of the young stallions in the barn that knows he is ready for the big race but can’t quite keep up with the thoroughbreds just yet. However, it’s a new year and after knocking off the rust and finishing in the top half of the field at the Tournament of Champions, Wise will lean on his driver and weighted proximity precision to put himself in the mix all week.

He ranks inside the top 12 off the tee, on approach, on par 5s, and in birdie percentage, which are all major criteria for me this week and will ultimately be the reason Ketchup King Aaron reigns supreme in La Quinta.

Yearly Earnings - $231,865
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/1

Andrew Putters - Adam Hadwin

Alternate - Patrick Cantlay

I'm a little unsure about this week. When that is the case I like to fall back on course history. Adam Hadwin has performed historically great at this event. This is probably a chalky play, but I am okay with that line of thinking this week. We are just looking for an average week off the tee and it should be a successful tournament. 

Yearly Earnings - $0
Yearly Cuts Made - 0/1

Mia The Model - Sungjae Im

Alternate - Cameron Young

After brainstorming the optimal way to proceed after Byron and I both didn't want Tom Kim last week but were forced into the selection because of his projection as the top golfer when combining our sheets, we decided to go a different route moving forward with how we are going to make our selection.

We are still only going to consider players that graded inside the top 20 of both of our models, but I built a probability randomizer to let fate do its part in these selections.

For starters, it adds more of a luck-filled element to picks we already liked for the week, but more importantly, it removed the chalk nature of going with the obvious choice.

Here are our individual answers for the week. Anyone in yellow was listed on both models:

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

My biggest takeaway was that we had 15 of the same top 20. Tom Kim, for obvious reasons, was not eligible to be the choice, but it produced an aggregated selection board of the following options.

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means options like Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay got rewarded for being better options for our models (which we see with their 15% chance), all the way down to the bottom of our board in Adam Hadwin/Justin Rose – two golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Sungjae Im this week as the selection and Cameron Young as the alternate.

Let us know what you think of her chances at the American Express!

Yearly Earnings - $0
Yearly Cuts Made - 0/1

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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