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Football is a weird sport. Going into Week 14, the two teams who've scored the least points, the Texans and Broncos, almost pulled off massive upsets. Houston was a yard away from beating the Cowboys as 17-point underdogs and Denver was a drive away from possibly knocking off Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Some teams may not have anything to play for, but the players and coaches will always be giving it their all this late because their next contract depends on it.
Week 15 is a full slate with no byes, a Thursday night game, three Saturday games, and the regular Sunday slate.
You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 15
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Chiefs -14 at Texans, Eagles -9 at Bears, Bills -7.5 vs. Dolphins, Packers -7 vs. Rams.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
No more byes this week and the rest of the season.
My best bets are at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 15
Chiefs -14 at Texans
Houston had their chance to win their first game since Oct. 9 and did they come super close. They led the entire second half until the Cowboys scored with 41 seconds left. This was their best game played in two months. Jeff Driskel came in late but it's unclear who will start against the Chiefs. It doesn't matter either way. Kansas City will win, the question is will they cover?
Chiefs 31 - Texans 20
Bills -7.5 vs. Dolphins
This game is on Saturday night and you can be sure the Dolphins will be in for their coldest game of the year. It'll also be windy and Tua Tagovailoa is going to have major issues throwing the ball in this weather. He already has an issue throwing it with zip in a dome, so you can only imagine how it will be on a cold night in Western New York. In the last three games, the Bills' defense is third in yards per play. They looked really good against the Jets Sunday, limiting their longest play to 25 yards.
The Bills have not looked like the team everyone expected them to, but they are 10-3 and in line to be the top seed in the AFC. If there's a week to get right, it's this one. Miami just got lit up by Justin Herbert for 367 yards. Josh Allen could let it fly Saturday night.
Bills 27 - Dolphins 14
Chargers -3 vs. Titans
How is this line only three? Tennessee fans won't be flooding LA and taking over the stadium. There's also a major mismatch at quarterback between Justin Herbert and Ryan Tannehill. If the Chargers can get touchdowns in the red zone, this game will be over early. They rank fifth-worst in scoring touchdowns in the red zone in their last three. Tennessee is scoring 16 points per game in their last three, the fifth-worst. So if the Chargers can get to 24-28 points, this should be an easy cover.
Chargers 24 - Titans 13
Bengals -3.5 at Bucs
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Cincinnati has won five in a row, while Tampa should have lost three in a row but had a miraculous comeback two weeks ago against the Saints. What more needs to be seen from Tom Brady and the Bucs to realize they are not a good team? They can't block, Brady can't move, and the receivers are old. The defense, which was their strong point, just got gashed by the Niners. San Fran ran for 209 yards in 36 attempts, with 5.8 yards per rush.
The Bengals have a similar level of playmakers, but they have a top-five quarterback in Joe Burrow. The Bengals should cruise.
Bengals 31 - Bucs 17
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 15
Eagles -9 at Bears
Philadelphia has looked like the best team in football, but this game has me worried. Chicago is off a bye, has nothing to play for, and will give it their all this week with nothing to lose. All stats lead me to believe the Eagles will dominate, but Justin Fields is scary to face and he is the variable you can't account for when handicapping the game.
Jalen Hurts and the offense will do their own on the offensive side, but how will the very good Eagles front handle Fields? That will determine the game.
Eagles 31 - Bears 28
Packers -7 vs. Rams
So many questions for this Monday night game. Will Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love start? How will Baker Mayfield play with 10 days to prepare and not three? Will the Rams show life after their comeback win on Thursday night against the Raiders?
How do you back a touchdown favorite when they haven't looked all that good on offense this season all while allowing the most yards per play in the last three games? This is a major avoid.
Packers 23 - Rams 20
NFL Best Bets for Week 15
- Bills -7.5 vs. Dolphins - It will be fascinating to watch Tua try and throw the ball in Western New York.
- Texans +14 vs. Chiefs - Double-digit home underdog against a team that can take their foot off the gas.
- Chargers -3 vs. Titans - A major difference in offensive talent level.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 1-2
- 2022 season: 22-18-2
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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