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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Dolphins vs Bengals showdown slate on 9/29. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's so nice that football is back, and we're back at it again with some Week 4 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. After a run-heavy, relatively boring TNF matchup last week in Cleveland, we should see more of a fun, pass-heavy matchup this week as the 3-0 Miami Dolphins head up to Cincinnati to take on the 1-2 reigning AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Dolphins vs. Bengals NFL DFS showdown slate on September 29th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, $14,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 925 passing yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 53.5% (3rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -14.5% (8th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off the slate here with Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa deserves a ton of credit just for getting the Dolphins to 3-0, with impressive wins over the Ravens and Bills in back-to-back weeks. I'm still not 100% on the Tua train, but I can't deny what he's done through the first three weeks. He has ample weapons at his disposal and the Dolphins' offense projects to a 17.38% passing DVOA, a respectable projection. I expect fireworks in this one, and as long as Tua plays I believe he's a viable 1.5x option on both sites.
Tee Higgins - WR, $12,300 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 19 targets, 13 receptions, 191 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Nik Needham): 9% targets per route, 70% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
While a lot of folks will look at Ja'Marr Chase in this spot, rightfully so, he is the most expensive player on the DraftKings slate. Tee Higgins has arguably looked as impressive as Chase, not only in this season but dating back to the beginning of last season. While he only has one receiving touchdown on the season, it very well could have been two following his remarkable catch against the Jets on Sunday. It's worth noting that the Bengals have a projected WR1 (Chase) DVOA of -21.87% in this one, and a projected WR2 (Higgins) DVOA of -0.52%. I'll certainly have shares of both, but I lean towards Higgins as well as Tyler Boyd in this specific matchup.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tyreek Hill, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Jaylen Waddle, Tyler Boyd
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DFS Flex Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, $9,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 812 passing yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -9.2% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 34.2% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
Throwing Higgins the ball will be quarterback Joe Burrow. After a disappointing 0-2 start to the season, the Bengals bounced back on Sunday and easily took care of the Jets behind Burrow's 275 passing yards and three touchdowns. Similar to Tua, Burrow has a plethora of weapons at his disposal and should be able to pick apart the Dolphins secondary that ranks bottom five in defensive pass DVOA through the first three weeks.
Tyreek Hill - WR, $10,800 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 29 targets, 21 receptions, 317 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Chidobe Awuzie): 21% targets per route, 41% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
There are a lot of expensive players on tonight's slate, and I believe that it'll be important to mix and match carefully. In lineups where I'm running either Tua or Higgins in the 1.5x spots, I really like Tyreek Hill in the flex. The narrative this week has been Tyreek Hill getting "revenge" on Bengals CB Eli Apple. While PFF currently has Hill seeing the most snaps against Chidobe Awuzie, they do have him lining up for 13 snaps against Apple. Tua came out and said that if there's a one-on-one matchup between the two, he'll be getting Tyreek the ball. I'll run with this narrative and confidently back Hill to have a bounce-back week.
Other Flex Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Chase Edmonds, Samaje Perine, Jaylen Waddle
DFS Value Plays
Raheem Mostert - RB, $4,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 24 attempts, 78 rushing yards, six targets, four receptions, 44 receiving yards
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -3.3% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Rush DVOA: -17.6% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll mostly be fading the run game in this one as I believe both teams will be taking shots back and forth with their elite wide receiver cores. I will, however, be taking a look at Raheem Mostert as a value play. While Mostert hasn't seen any goal line work (within the 5yd line), he is playing about 50% of the snaps and has a higher attempt% and red zone attempt% than "RB1" Chase Edmonds. He's too cheap to not give a look on this slate, and I imagine he'll be one of the chalkier plays in his price tier.
Evan McPherson - K, $3,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 7/9 field goals made/attempted, 3/4 extra points made/attempted
I'll finish the slate off with a kicker, of course, Evan McPherson. Kickers always have a solid floor on these showdown slates and with most of the players we want to target pretty expensive, we'll have to come up with value somewhere. McPherson has been reliable, getting three field goal attempts in each game through the first three weeks. He's also knocked down a 50+ yard attempt in two of the three games, including a 59-yarder back in Week 1. I feel like McPherson has a path to be optimal regardless of how the game script plays out, and is cheap enough, especially on DraftKings, to be worth a look.
Other Value Plays: Hayden Hurst, Jason Sanders, Cedrick Wilson
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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