Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 22

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 22, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We're sticking to the east coast this week, with three arms in the eastern divisions earning a look after solid performances the past week. We'll be breaking down the best start of Brayan Bello's young career, taking a peek at Kyle Bradish's recent hot streak, and seeing if there's anything left in the tank for Patrick Corbin.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 09/05/2022

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Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox – 6% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 26 IP, 7.27 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 7% K-BB%

09/03 vs. TEX: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Bello was on fire on Saturday, shutting down the Texas Rangers for six scoreless innings in the best start of Bello’s young career thus far. Bello had slowly been righting the ship after getting off to a brutal beginning to his MLB career, and Saturday was a huge leap forward. Is the 23-year-old righty finally finding his way or was this just a fake out by an unreliable youngster?

Originally signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Bello soon shot up the prospect rankings thanks to quick advancement through Boston’s system. He even just cracked a few top 100 prospect lists, towards the bottom. Bello is a four-pitch pitcher, using a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup. Although he’s a hard thrower (96.6 MPH average FB velocity), Bello is better known for his secondary stuff than his fastball. Even with his struggles there’s one pitch—the changeup—that has performed admirably this year.

He might have an ERA near six, but not everything has gone wrong for Bello. Opponents have been flummoxed by his changeup, posting just a .208 AVG with zero extra base hits and a .278 wOBA against the changeup this season. Batters also have a laughable 72.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 20% swinging strike rate against the pitch. What makes the pitch so special? Break, and lots of it.

Bello’s changeup has over two additional inches of break compared to the league average changeup. A hard, low spin offering, Bello’s changeup is exceptionally deceptive when paired with his two near-97 MPH fastballs. Here’s an example from this start.

That pitch has some nasty late movement, and one can see how difficult it must be for batters to reckon with after being peppered with Bello’s heat.

Speaking of Bello’s heat, it has not been as effective as his changeup thus far. His sinker has performed especially poorly, with opponents demolishing the pitch for a .417 AVG, .542 SLG, and .436 wOBA. Those numbers are bad, but after digging into the peripherals on Bello it’s a mystery as to how his sinker has gotten crushed this badly.

Bello’s sinker does just that: sinks. With 4.5 extra inches of drop compared to the average sinker, Bello’s two-seamer is a groundball machine. Batters have a 66.7% groundball rate off Bello’s sinker this season, along with an incredible -9-degree average launch angle against.

With this many groundballs Bello should be getting better results with his sinker, but a .429 BABIP off the pitch has hampered his ability to produce consistent results on an otherwise strong-looking pitch. Statcast expected stats think Bello’s been unlucky, with a .283 xBA, .384 xSLG, and .322 xwOBA all more than 100 points lower than Bello’s actual results against. Bello’s fastballs are one of the reasons for his vault in prospect status, and it would be interesting to see how they perform over a longer period of time, as Bello appears to be the victim of rotten luck thus far.

It's not just the sinker that Bello’s been unlucky with, either. Overall Bello has a respectable 3.00 FIP, yet his actual ERA is nearly double at 5.91. His .408 BABIP  against is partially to blame, as is his 65% LOB rate Bello is a groundball machine, and a lot more of those groundballs are sneaking through than one would care for, causing bloated numbers for a talented pitcher.

The Red Sox are a below average fielding team, ranking 17^th in DRS and 20^th in UZR this season. Their middle-infield is so-so, but Boston’s corner infield is a disaster. Between Rafael Devers, Bobby Dalbec, Eric Hosmer, and Franchy Cordero they’ve got -12 DRS combined. Not one of those players has a positive value in the DRS column this season. Those corners aren’t improving anytime soon, but even with this poor defense Bello’s outcomes have been disproportionately bad compared to the underlying metrics.

Even though the results have been less than stellar, there’s a lot to like about what Bello has done thus far. He has four plus pitches with the potential for exceptional strikeout and groundball numbers. His control has always been a concern, and walks may be Bello’s ultimate undoing if he fails to make it as a starter.

It would serve Boston welll to give him a long leash to try as a starter because Bello could be quite successful if he manages to rein in his wicked changeup, earn better results on his slider, and keep producing groundballs at a prodigious rate. He reminds this writer a tad of Framber Valdez when Valdez first came up with Houston. Valdez gave up walks and hard contact like nobody’s business, but the groundballs were always there. Bello could have the upside to be a poor man’s Valdez someday.

Verdict:

Although the numbers don’t reflect it, there’s plenty to be encouraged by with Brayan Bello thus far into his career. He has a plus changeup that should help him produce better strikeout numbers going forward, and his sinker makes him exceptional at inducing groundballs. He’s been rather unlucky on balls-in-play thus far, and one could expect better outcomes going forward. He still lacks the control and refinement that would make him a consistent, reliable fantasy option, and that will only come with time. For now, Bello is a high-risk, high-reward add. If you are behind in the standings and need a big swing, Bello is a fine choice this time of year. If you are protecting ratios, steer clear from this volatile rookie.

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals – 7% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 127.2 IP, 6.56 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 11.2% K-BB%

09/03 @ NYM: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

It’s Corbin time! At least, it was on Saturday when Patrick Corbin put one of his better starts of the season. Corbin allowed just one run on three hits over seven innings for his sixth victory of the season against the mighty Mets. Corbin has been pitching better as of late, with a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts. Prime Patrick Corbin will likely never been back, but has this version of Patrick Corbin turned a corner? Is there anything left in that left arm of his, or is this recent hot streak just an aberration in what’s appearing to be a brutal end to an otherwise great career.

Coming to Washington on a six-year, $140 million dollar deal back in 2019, the first year was really the only good season Washington got out of Corbin. Granted, he was a key player in their 2019 World Series run, but it’s been a disaster following that season. Since 2020 Corbin has a 17-40 record with a 5.78 ERA, 5.01 FIP, and 1.74 HR/9. It’s safe to say that if Corbin wasn’t cashing a hefty paycheck that he wouldn’t be a member of Washington’s rotation anymore.

Corbin still works with the same four-pitch mix that he’s had his entire career, using a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, and occasional changeup. Anyone who has followed Corbin’s career or is plugged into fantasy baseball knows Corbin’s success story well. Corbin was an uber-talented prospect who struggled to put things together until he went all-in on his slider, Corbin always had a killer slider, and he just began throwing it 40%+ of the time, leading to great success with Arizona and Washington. That strategy has lost effectiveness with age, and Corbin appears to be backing away from it a tad this season.

For the first time since 2016, the slider is not Corbin’s most used pitch. That honor goes to his sinker, a 92.8 MPH offering that hasn’t done all that much sinking. Opponents have pulverized this pitch for a .324 AVG, 5.14 SLG, and .388 wOBA. Unlike Brayan Bello’s sinker, there’s nothing to indicate that Corbin has been unlucky with the sinker this season. Batters have a 92.6 MPH average exit velocity off the pitch, along with an average launch angle against of eight degrees. His .564 xSLG and .407 xwOBA with the pitch are somehow worse than the actual outcomes.

Want to know why Corbin’s sinker is so bad? It just doesn’t move, with drop and break at or around the league average. Here’s a heatmap of his sinker usage this season.

See that big red spot in the middle? Yeah, that’s bad. Like really, really bad. Here’s the same heatmap, but with slugging percentage and average exit velocity.

Unsurprisingly, those mid-zone sinkers are getting hammered. It didn’t change in this start either, as Corbin used his sinker a whopping 71% of the time; 60 of his 85 pitches were sinkers. In fairness, Corbin was throwing harder this game at 93.8 MPH on the gun, but that hardly accounts for Corbin’s recent success.

The thing about Corbin’s sinker is that, well, it was never good. His fastballs were never all that good, which is why he became a slider machine in his late 20s. If he recaptures past success it will be because of the slider, not his sinker. So, what’s the deal with his slider? In truth, it’s diminished in just about every notable aspect. Corbin’s slider has lost velocity, movement, and spin over the years. This slider vert graph is particularly damning, showing his vertical movement over time with the pitch.

There’s a nice little dip between 2017-19, Corbin’s prime, and then he starts losing drop quick with the pitch. The truth is plain and simple: Corbin just isn’t as good as he once was, and his recent three-start stretch won’t change that. There’s not a lot of fantasy value to be extracted here besides stacking against this pitcher.

Verdict:

It was a nice start for Corbin on Saturday, but there’s nothing in this profile to indicate Corbin is “back” to any degree. An overreliance on his sinker has made him susceptible to power and hard hit balls, and the diminishment of his slider means Corbin can no longer produce whiffs at an adequate rate. He’s a hard avoid for the rest of this season, and most likely the rest of his career.

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles – 9% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 80 IP, 5.63 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 14.2% K-BB%

09/01 @ CLE: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Bradish went toe-to-toe with Shane Bieber on Thursday and came out the victor after firing seven shutout innings against Cleveland en route to his third win of the season. This start is the continuation of a hot streak for Bradish, who has been on fire since late July. Since July 29 Bradish has a 2.66  ERA in seven starts. Bradish hasn’t let a run in in either of his last two starts, shutting down the powerful Houston Astros for eight scoreless on August 26 before putting up this donut against Cleveland. Like Brayan Bello, Bradish got off to a rough start to his career, but things are looking up for the young righty. Is Bradish a sneaky September add, or just on an extended good luck streak?

Originally a fourth-round pick by the Angels back in 2017, Bradish came to Baltimore in the Dylan Bundy swap back in 2019. While clearly a step behind Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall in prospect rankings, Bradish had some prospect clout to his name and was even considered a fringe top-100 guy coming into this season. He works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, changeup, slider, and curveball. It’s been all about the slider during the hot streak for Bradish, but just how effective can the pitch be?

An 86.6 MPH offering, Bradish’s slider is characterized by sharp, downward movement. He has over five inches of extra break with the pitch compared to league average. Here’s an example from this start.

The pitch looked especially tough to hit there, and opponents have really struggled against Bradish’s slider this season. Batters are hitting .231 with a .404 SLG and .309 wOBA off the slider this year. Those numbers don’t seem that special, but consider that since July 29 batters are hitting .167 with a .259 SLG off Bradish’s slider, and Bradish has a .201 xBA and .331 xSLG overall with the pitch.

The slider has also been Bradish’s best strikeout pitch. He notched six of his nine whiffs with the pitch in this outing, and has a 16.7% swinging strike rate and 36.8% chase rate with the pitch this season. Bradish routinely had K/9 greater than 10 in the minor leagues, and while he hasn’t quite found the strikeout groove in the majors yet, it could be coming if Bradish can find a way to complement his slider.

The answer probably should be the curveball, a pitch many scouts thought could be Bradish’s best. A traditional 12-6 offering, Bradish’s curveball has been hit-and-miss thus far. There are some things to like about it, including the 1-degree average launch angle and 63.3% groundball rate against, but there are also some not so nice things about the pitch.

Bradish has just an 8.3% swinging strike rate and 27.6% chase rate with his curveball this season. He also has roughly league average spin at 2501 RPM on average. This pitch could be effective with inducing groundballs, but it appears to fall short of being a strikeout weapon. Without his curveball generating whiffs, it would be hard to see Bradish replicate his minor league strikeout numbers, and one shouldn’t expect much growth in that department this season.

Bradish is sort of in a weird spot, fantasy-wise. He’s definitely better than his 5.17 ERA, and he’s definitely not as good as his 2.66 ERA over his last seven starts. The unifying number to look at here appears to be his xFIP. Bradish has a 3.98 xFIP on the year, and has a 3.95 xFIP over his last seven starts. He’s somehow allowed 1.55 HR/9 despite playing in the now pitcher-friendly Camden Yards and maintaining solid home run rates throughout the minor leagues.

His 17% HR/FB ratio is definitely bloated – though his 90.7 MPH average exit velocity against doesn’t help – but home run regression appears to be one of the biggest factors behind his recent success. Bradish had a 2.1 HR/9 on July 28, but since then has allowed just 0.89 HR/9. Based on his minor league numbers and pitching style, the latter number appears more realistic for long term projection. The 3.98 xFIP is a good place to look when considering where Bradish’s ratios might fall over a longer period of time, and he can be treated like a risky four ERA pitcher going forward.

Verdict:

Bradish isn’t as bad as his overall numbers might suggest. A plus slider has been his ticket to success over his recent seven-start hot streak. Bradish is still rough around the edges and far from a strikeout machine, making him more of a middling streamer option at this point in his career. If Bradish can polish his curveball or develop his changeup he could unlock another level, but for now just keep him to streaming.

He’s not a bad buy in dynasty leagues as an unheralded 25-year-old who is one pitch away from being pretty darn good. For now, use him in soft matchups. His next outing, Tuesday versus the Blue Jays, doesn’t fit that bill, but he’ll face Washington after that start if things remain as they are now for Baltimore, and Bradish would be a sneaky start in that one.

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