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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/30/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We had a rough day yesterday, going 0-2 on our plays. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Saturday, April 30, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 13-14-1, -5.06 units
- Sides: 11-8, -0.28 units
- Totals: 2-6-1, -4.78 units
- Notes: I do apologize for the slow start to this season, and yesterday was certainly no help. Matt Brash looked like a rookie and the regression finally came, and the Marlins made him pay for it. The Cardinals game was a little more frustrating, as the Cards' offense wasn't able to get anything going against MadBum or the Diamondbacks bullpen-- the worst in the majors in terms of xFIP. Nothing we can do about it though, so let's get after it today.
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: PIT +144
SD: Sean Manaea | PIT: JT Brubaker
I'll start today's slate off out back in Pittsburgh as the Padres and Pirates continue their weekend series following San Diego's win yesterday. The Padres will send their ace Sean Manaea to the mound. Manaea comes into this one 2-2 through four starts, with a 3.47 ERA and a 3.45 xFIP. While the Padres have split Manaea's first two starts, he's looked great in three of them. Manaea allowed just three earned runs in his first 19 innings before a "blowup" start against the Dodgers brought his numbers back to earth. He'll get a chance to bounce back today against the Pirates who come into this one ranked 17th in OPS (.652) and wRC+ (96).
On the other side of the matchup, my namesake JT Brubaker takes the mound. We've been successful fading him this season, and we'll do it again today. The Pirates are 2-2 behind Brubaker as well, as he comes into this one 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA and a 4.73 xFIP. Brubaker has only made it out of the fifth once this season, a start against Milwaukee where he allowed four runs (two earned). The Padres rank 16th in OPS (.674) and 14th in wRC+ (105).
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Padres at -177, good for 63.9% implied odds. My projections give the Padres a 67.71% chance of winning, so we're getting good value here. Brubaker lost his last start against the Padres back in 2021, and I expect that trend to continue today as the Padres take advantage of him and the lowly Pirates bullpen that ranks 21st in xFIP.
Pick: San Diego Padres Money Line (-177) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: COL -166
CIN: Connor Overton | COL: Chad Kuhl
We'll head to Coors for a little late-night action for our second matchup of the day. Colorado took care of business last night, coming away with a 10-4 victory. The Reds will send Connor Overton to the mound for his first start of 2022. He was decent in 2021 with both the Blue Jays and Pirates, with a 4.70 ERA and a 4.26 xFIP. He didn't go deep into games last season, not making it past the third inning in any of his starts, so it'll be interesting to see how long he'll be out there tonight. After Overton, it'll be up to the Cincinnati bullpen that ranks 29th in xFIP (4.52).
On the other side of this one, the Rockies will send Chad Kuhl to the mound. Like Overton, Kuhl was fine with the Pirates last season but has really made his mark this so far this season. The Rockies have won all three of Kuhl's starts on the year, with Kuhl coming in 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA. His xFIP of 4.00 is slightly concerning, but it's tough to expect regression from Kuhl today against a Reds offense that ranked 28th in OPS (.584) and dead last in wRC+ (69).
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rockies with a little bit of a chalky line here at -166, good for 62.41% implied odds. My model gives the Rockies a 68.21% chance of winning this one, so we're getting some seriously solid value. The Rockies have dominated at ar home, logging a 55-37 record since the beginning of last season as well as 7-4 there this season. The Reds have dropped four straight Saturday games, and are 0-7 in their last seven against a starter who has a WHIP less than 1.15. I'll take the strong value here with the home Rockies against a guy making his first start of the year in Coors.
Pick: Colorado Rockies Money Line (-166) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!
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