RADIO
Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 3 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 3 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Kyren Paris, Willson Contreras, Shane Smith, Ronel Blanco, and more.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
Although sample sizes are still small, we are starting to accumulate enough data to hone in on potential long-term risers and fallers.
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 13, 2025.
Kyren Paris, Los Angeles Angels (2B)
.400/.488/.914 Slash Line, 5 HR, 8 RBI, 5 SB
Few hitters have made as surprising a fantasy impact early on as Kyren Paris. The 23-year-old had little fantasy hype heading into 2025, but he should be on all fantasy radars now.
Paris had middling minor-league numbers but made a great impression in spring, slashing .400/.449/.667 with two home runs and four stolen bases in 49 plate appearances.
He has continued his torrid start in the regular season, batting .400 with five HR and five stolen bases in 38 plate appearances. He hasn't hit the ball hard overall, but has barrelled the ball up at a high rate. He has also done a good job getting on base with a 13.2 percent walk rate, which is a great combination with his extreme speed.
Kyren Paris has taken the baseball world by storm here in 2025!
He is the first player since Larry Walker in 1997 to hit 5+ home runs and record 4+ stolen bases in his first 10 games of a season.
h/t @SlangsOnSports pic.twitter.com/qPqve049IM
— MLB (@MLB) April 10, 2025
It is unreasonable to expect Paris (or any hitter) to continue this level of excellence, but there is also no reason to distrust his skills until proven otherwise. He has impacted the ball well, drawn walks, and taken full advantage of his speed on the basepaths.
Paris is still available in some leagues with a 74 percent roster share. His continued stellar performance is not guaranteed, but fantasy managers won't have much time left to add him if it continues.
Jacob Wilson, Athletics (SS)
.368/.368/.544 Slash Line, 2 HR, 8 RBI
Jacob Wilson was the Athletics' top prospect last season, per MLB Pipeline. The 23-year-old has shown why to start the 2025 season. He is currently rostered in 43 percent of leagues; should this be higher?
Wilson has made good on his skills and then some. His main calling card was his excellent hit tool. He rarely swings and misses, with a 94.7 percent contact rate and a minuscule 3.5 percent strikeout rate. He may not be able to sustain a .368 batting average, but Wilson should provide a huge boost in average for fantasy managers.
He has also shown surprising power early on, with four doubles and two home runs. He has not hit the ball hard, but has squared up pitches better than almost all hitters. He has also taken advantage of his surroundings, hitting one home run in Coors Field and the other in what looks like hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
It is worth calling out that Wilson has never been considered a power hitter or a speed threat. His profile is a good match for fantasy points leagues, but it may not translate into roto/category league impact, particularly if his power only translates into doubles instead of HRs.
Jacob Wilson is off to a nice start.
Definitely worth rostering.
But do you know who else has elite bat-to-ball skills?
Luis Arraez, who's nothing special for fantasy. https://t.co/BkUaYjdlx4
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) April 12, 2025
Wilson has provided everything the A's were hoping for so far, and a good chunk of that production has translated to fantasy. He won't provide steals and won't walk much, but he should provide an excellent average and at least plenty of doubles, with the potential for a decent number of home runs as well.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 13, 2025.
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
0-0, 1.54 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 20.5% Strikeout Rate, 11 2/3 IP
Players inevitably come out of nowhere every season to provide fantasy value. Shane Smith was acquired by the White Sox via the Rule 5 Draft and looks poised to be one of those players, potentially.
The 25-year-old put together strong numbers in the minors with the Brewers throughout his career, so it was interesting that he was even available in the Rule 5 Draft. He put together a 3.05 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 29.6 percent strikeout rate over 32 appearances (16 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A.
Smith only has two big-league starts to his name, but he has looked good in both. He has allowed two runs over 11 2/3 innings pitched with nine strikeouts and five walks. This included a no-hit bid in his most recent start at the Guardians.
Shane Smith becomes the first @whitesox rookie since 2011 to take a no-hit bid into the 6th.
The first pick in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft has held opposing batters to a .105 average this year: pic.twitter.com/nsYofePWqh
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 8, 2025
Even this early in the season, fantasy managers are looking for potential breakouts and injury replacements. Smith has started well and is available in 95 percent of leagues, making him an interesting candidate in both categories.
Easton Lucas, Toronto Blue Jays
2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 28.9% Strikeout Rate, 10 1/3 IP
Easton Lucas is another little-known pitcher who is quickly causing blips on fantasy radars. The 28-year-old had never made a big-league start prior to 2025, but he has made the most of his rotation opportunity as a fill-in for Max Scherzer (thumb).
Lucas doesn't have much to go on in terms of a minor-league starting track record. Only four of his 38 minor-league appearances last season were starts, and he had last made a start before that all the way back in 2019.
He has looked fantastic in his first two starts, holding teams scoreless with 11 strikeouts and three walks in 10 1/3 IP. He relies heavily on an unassuming fastball at 57 percent usage, but he has gotten the most swing-and-miss with the pitch with a 15.7 percent swinging-strike rate.
His secondary pitch arsenal has also been effective, with his slider and changeup both generating swinging-strike rates over 13 percent. He has put together a slightly above-average batted-ball profile and has also avoided putting runners on for free.
Easton Lucas, Wipeout 83mph Slider. 🌊 pic.twitter.com/273W5XoO0S
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2025
Lucas doesn't provide much for fantasy managers to go off of, but what he has shown has been encouraging. He has done an admirable job filling in for Scherzer, and his services may be needed longer than expected, given that Scherzer has a history of injuries, is 40 years old, and is dealing with a nagging thumb injury.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 13, 2025.
Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals (C/1B)
.132/.193/.170 Slash Line, 0 HR, 4 RBI
Willson Contreras came into 2025 with plenty of fantasy hype, given that he was catcher-eligible but would be playing first base. The perceived cheat code has not led to any fantasy wins to this point.
The 32-year-old, who has been a consistent hitter throughout his career regardless of position, has not gotten things going. He is batting just .132, has yet to hit a HR, and has a bloated 37.9 percent strikeout rate.
It could be that the position change has weighed more on Contreras than anticipated, but there aren't really any explanations to point to for his struggles. It is particularly perplexing because he looked great in spring, posting a .405/.511/.649 slash line with two long balls.
#STLCards slugger Willson Contreras could do no wrong in Spring Training and he looked more than ready for the start of the season. However, he clearly isn't seeing the ball well now -- as evidenced by this awkward swing on a sweeper.
It dropped him to 1 for 24 with 11 Ks. pic.twitter.com/yQqtjflutI
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) April 4, 2025
Nothing has gone right for Contreras or fantasy managers early on, but at this point, there isn't much to do other than bench him if possible. Fortunately, he is eligible in a weak fantasy position, so his lack of production shouldn't hurt quite as much as if he were only 1B eligible. I would hold out a bit longer before considering more drastic action.
Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros (C)
.119/.178/.214 Slash Line, 1 HR, 6 RBI
We'll stick with the theme of high-profile fantasy catchers who have not gotten the job done with Yainer Diaz. The 26-year-old came into the season with a track record of providing an excellent batting average for the position with some pop, but neither of those has been found in 2025.
Unlike Contreras, things don't look so bleak for Diaz under the hood. His 22.2 percent strikeout rate is respectable, and his .129 BABIP is much lower than his career .313 mark. This suggests pretty bad luck for Diaz.
He hasn't hit the ball nearly as hard as he had in the past, with a career-low 87.8 mph average exit velocity. This also seems to be nothing other than bad luck, as he has swung the bat with the same velocity as last season and owns a much higher 90.1 mph career average exit velocity.
Being told to stay patient may be frustrating, but this seems like the best plan of attack for fantasy managers with Diaz. The season is still early, and he has a track record of being a higher-end option in a weak position. He has also recently shown some signs of life, hitting a grand slam for his first home run of the season.
Yainer Diaz GRAND SLAM 😤
(MLB x @DairyQueen) pic.twitter.com/v1jxOYYheT
— MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2025
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 13, 2025.
Jordan Romano, Philadelphia Phillies
1-for-2 Save Opportunities, 10.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 21.4% Strikeout Rate, 7 Appearances
Jordan Romano signed a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Phillies this offseason, presenting a potential fantasy opportunity for saves on a great team. The opportunity has done anything but materialize in the early going.
The former Blue Jays closer has not looked like his old self, posting a 10.50 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a poor 21.4 percent strikeout rate. He has allowed runs in three of his seven appearances so far and has already been demoted to lower-leverage situations.
Romano is a two-pitch pitcher with a four-seam fastball and a slider, and his velocity has been markedly down on both. His slider has been his primary pitch this season, and he has left it in the middle of the plate, but he has also walked batters at a poor 14.3 percent clip, so nothing has worked for him.
Jordan Romano said before the game he thinks the Phils found a mechanical issue to explain his recent drop in velocity. He sounded confident it would return. Fastball averaged 95.9 mph, touched 96.9 mph in a scoreless eighth inning.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) April 11, 2025
The potential good news is that the Phillies may have identified a mechanical issue with Romano that was causing his velocity drop. This is just one of a host of issues for Romano at the moment, but better stuff could help cover up some of his other ongoing problems.
At this point, Romano has made an awful case for save opportunities, while Jose Alvarado has converted all three of his save opportunities with a 1.23 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 43.3 percent strikeout rate.
The Phillies have been reluctant to rely on a primary closer the past several seasons, so Romano could still have a chance to figure things out and get back in the mix. However, they look to be a real contender this season, and Alvarado has been fantastic, so Romano's window of opportunity may be closing for now.
For the latest bullpen news, be sure to check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Chart series.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
1-1, 6.94 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 30.2% Strikeout Rate, 11 2/3 IP
Ronel Blanco came out of nowhere in 2024 as a fantasy All-Star but has not started 2025 similarly. The 31-year-old has compiled a bloated 6.94 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in just 11 2/3 IP in his first three starts. How nervous should fantasy managers be?
Starting with the bad, Blanco has allowed way too many baserunners. His 1.63 WHIP is much higher than his 1.09 2024 mark. The concerning part of this is his 13.2 percent walk rate. Blanco has struggled with walks throughout his career, so fantasy managers must keep an eye on this.
The other portion of this is the number of hits Blanco has allowed. He has actually done a good job avoiding hard contact, but has a very high .379 BABIP. This indicates that he has had to deal with bad luck, so I would expect better results to come.
Fortunately, there are still some signs of hope for Blanco. He has racked up 16 strikeouts through his outings, thanks to a 24.2 percent swinging-strike rate on his slider. Blanco's career strikeout rate is only 24.4 percent, so I wouldn't expect this to continue, but it has softened the fantasy blow.
He also put forth a better showing in his last start, allowing two runs through five innings against the Angels. It wasn't the toughest matchup, but it was a step in the right direction.
Fantasy managers should have realistically expected some regression for Blanco this season, but his numbers have been much worse. There are some potential issues to point to, but there has also been a bunch of bad luck. Fantasy managers may want to treat Blanco on a start-by-start basis for now, but there are still positive signs under the hood.
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