5 Outfield Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Undervalued Hitters With Upside (2025)

March 23, 2025

Zach's outfield fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers for 2025 fantasy drafts. His upside hitters include Heston Kjerstad, Kerry Carpenter, Jake McCarthy, more.

For most typical Best Ball contests, hitters are divided into just two categories: infield and outfield. Because infield is a combination of more positions, and you can never have enough pitching, outfield can sometimes be where rosters are stretched extremely thin. While some of the best bats come from the very top of the position, there are some great options available later in best ball drafts if you wait or are looking to build in some depth to protect against injury or underperformance.

Based on their ADP (average draft position), the five outfielders highlighted in this post should bring great value where they are currently being drafted. Some of these are young players with a chance to break out, while others are safer plays but without quite as much upside. As you hunt for best ball outfield values, it's critically important to consider your roster at the position as a whole. If you already have an injury risk on your roster at the position, it may be better to go with an option that has a higher floor but maybe doesn't have quite as much breakout potential. On the other hand, if your lineup is full of fairly reliable players, you can really swing for the fences with your value picks.

Typically, best ball contests automatically count your highest scores at the position, so the format lends itself to targeting players that have "spike" weeks and can push their way into your starting spots even if they also may be prone to slumps. More than in standard fantasy baseball, best ball's format gives streaky players higher value. With spring training underway in Arizona and Florida, these are the five best ball outfield values that stand out to me based on ADP.

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Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Before we get to the deep cuts, Reynolds is an outfielder typically being drafted outside the top 20 outfielders who brings consistency and stability while also offering torrid stretches during the season. Maybe it's because he plays for the Pirates, but he's flying under the radar a bit and brings great value at his current ADP.

He has been remarkably reliable over the last four seasons, playing at least 145 games each year. He has hit exactly 24 home runs in three of those four years, with an outlier of 27 home runs in 2022. He hit .275 last season with a .343 wOBA, 88 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. He typically heats up in the summer and continued that trend in June and July of last season, posting a .328/.389/.566 triple-slash a .409 wOBA and 163 wRC+. He also ran off a 25-game hitting streak in that stretch.

Bryan Reynolds was at the plate with bases loaded 18 times last season.

His Batting Average was .500.

He had 9 Hits (most in the MLB).

Reynolds is the definition of a CLUTCH hitter 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KmoFf1e8R0

— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) January 31, 2025

Reynolds has a very high floor and will be locked into the second spot in the Pirates' order once again this season. Grabbing him at his ADP is a great way not only to get value at this spot but also to free you up to swing for the fences with the rest of your outfield picks since Reynolds's floor is so high, while he also gives you those especially productive stretches where he can carry your team.

Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers

I already highlighted Carpenter as one of my top outfield breakout candidates earlier in spring training, but he's also a great target in best ball formats, where he's also going off the board right around the 50th outfielder off of the board.

Carpenter's numbers have been exceptional the last few years, but there are two major issues. The primary concern is his durability. He dealt with a lumbar spine stress fracture last season and only played 87 regular-season games. He also limped around in the playoffs with a hamstring issue, although he still delivered clutch production. He hasn't played 120 games in any season in the majors or throughout his climb through the minors. The other issue with his game is that he doesn't hit lefties well at all, but the Tigers have yet to really give him many opportunities on that side of the split.

When he did manage to get on the field last year, Carpenter looked strong. He hit .284 with 18 homers and a .390 wOBA in his 87 games and tacked on 57 RBI. He had an impressive .303 ISO and 160 wRC+ while establishing a new career-high with a 46.4 percent hard-hit rate, per Statcast.

Players with a Barrel% over 15.0% & a Whiff% under 31.0%

Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Juan Soto
*Kerry Carpenter*
Corey Seager

This year, we may see Kerry Carpenter develop into and later become, one of the top bats in the league.#RepDetroit

pic.twitter.com/Gb2aZYDFbP

— Joseph Cammisa (@jcammisabsbl) February 9, 2025

Carpenter could break out if he stays healthy, but even if he just stays on the strong side of the platoon and mashes when healthy, he is worth a look at this point in best ball drafts to build in-depth. His "spike" weeks may just be healthy weeks, but if you're getting him after you've stocked your starters, he is a great backup with good upside.

Jake McCarthy, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

If you need to add some consistent production at the end of 12-player drafts, McCarthy is a very interesting value target. He is still just 27 coming into this season, and he will look to build on last season's bounce-back campaign. He's expected to hit in the middle third of the Dbacks' lineup and should be a regular contributor, although he could platoon a little bit like Carpenter.

McCarthy showed plenty of offensive potential in his rise to the majors, posting a .369 average and a .453 wOBA in Triple-A in 2022 and a .360 average and a .463 wOBA in 2023 before being called up. He struggled in 2023 in the MLB, hitting only .243 with a .289 wOBA, but he improved those numbers drastically with a .285 batting average and .329 wOBA last season. Based on his minor league numbers, there could still be a little more power potential for McCarthy this season, and his strikeout rate has gotten progressively better each season in the MLB.

While his hitting has been a little inconsistent, he still has a solid fantasy floor since he always adds stolen bases. He had 20+ stolen bases in each of the last three seasons for the Diamondbacks, with a total of 74 thefts in 87 attempts (85 percent) over the last three years.

McCarthy gave a glimpse of what a breakout could look like with an impressive month of August. He hit .311 with five home runs and five stolen bases while posting a .373 wOBA and a 139 wRC+. He came back to earth in September but finished the season with a solid 110 wRC+.

He also consistently came through in the clutch:

Clutch gene activated ✅ pic.twitter.com/ZWsXXRoffH

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 9, 2025

The lefty's combo of power and speed makes him a strong late-round pick, and as long as he keeps his everyday starting spot, he has a relatively high floor. He brings a more balanced profile than many other players in this ADP range and has both a high floor and a high ceiling.

Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles

If you're looking for a "swing for the fences" pick at the end of your 12-player best ball league drafts, Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad has outstanding power potential. He hasn't been able to translate his minor-league success to the MLB fully yet due to injuries and consistency issues. If this is the year he "arrives" and gets regular playing time, his power numbers could be huge for a late-round addition.

Kjerstad has been on the fantasy radar for the last few seasons. In 2023, Kjerstad hit 21 homers in Double-A and Triple-A while posting a .397 wOBA and .225 ISO. He got his first look at the majors and hit two dingers but only had a .233 batting average (7-for-30) and struck out in a third of his at-bats. Last year, he started in the minors and hit .303 in 62 games in the minors, smashing 16 homers and posting a .423 wOBA.

After a quick stint with the MLB team in May, Kjerstad finally settled in and had success after being called up in late June. In 14 games, he went 14-for-37 (.378) with three home runs and a .479 wOBA. However, in the last of those 14 games, Kjerstad was hit in the head by a pitch from Clay Holmes.

At first, it didn't seem like it would be a huge deal, and Kjerstad was in the lineup the next day before being scratched. Ultimately, he landed on the seven-day concussion IL and went just 2-for-18 before landing back on the IL with further concussion symptoms. He didn't return for good until September. He looked much better over the last 11 games, going 7-for-30 (.233) with his fourth homer of the season.

Kjerstad mashed his way through the minors and has nothing left to prove before getting full-time work in the majors. In spring training, Executive VP/GM Mike Elias said Kjerstad has a “big opportunity” and “earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching.”

Signs are pointing towards Heston Kjerstad FINALLY getting near regular playing time, and in my opinion he’s poised to greatly overperform his current 317.3 ADP

Big target of mine in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. Can see .260/.270, 20+ HR and 70+ RBI for him this season… pic.twitter.com/nFygRMQNU7

— Owen Hurd (@Owen_FBB) February 16, 2025

Kjerstad is barely being drafted in 12-player leagues, but if you can add him late, he has the potential to vastly out-produce the other options going around him. He's off to a strong start this spring, and with his concussion issues behind him, could be back on the path to being a top fantasy contributor.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs

Some prospect fatigue is definitely impacting Crow-Armstrong's ADP, and he coming off of the board around the OF40 range. Crow-Armstrong brings an extremely high ceiling based on his prospect profile, but he also brings a relatively solid floor since he should at least get good playing time and plenty of stolen bases. He will still only be 23 on Opening Day, so it's way too early to declare him a bust, especially given the positive signs in the second half of last season.

Last year was Crow-Armstrong's first extended look in the majors, but he arrived with plenty of expectations after being a first-round pick in 2020 and rising quickly through the minors. In 2023, he played over 100 games in Triple-A and had good numbers with 20 homers, 37 stolen bases, a .283 batting average, and a .387 wOBA. He didn't quite get to those levels in 123 games in the MLB last year, but he did end up with 10 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He hit just .237, though, with a .290 wOBA on the season.

His disappointing average was mostly the result of early-season struggles. He reworked his swing towards the end of July and hit .289 with a .343 wOBA, seven of his 10 home runs, and a 123 wRC+ after July 26.

If you grab Crow-Armstrong, you should at least get bankable stolen base production. According to Statcast, his sprint speed was 30 ft/sec, which puts him in the 99th percentile. Those metrics match with the eye test as well.

How much fun is it to watch Pete Crow Armstrong? The opposing team is so concerned about his speed, it leads to errors. This clip from the game against the Dbacks shows Pete scoring from first on a stolen base attempt that saw Arizona make two errors on the play! Is PCA the most… pic.twitter.com/8Gn3NkuFsk

— Crawly's Cubs Kingdom (@crawlyscubs) February 26, 2025

Coming into the season, his spot in the batting order isn't figured out yet, and he may not lead off right away, according to manager Craig Counsel. However, regardless of where he hits in the order, if he’s able to get on base, he’ll add value with runs and stolen bases. PCA's elite work in center field should keep him in the everyday lineup even as his bat takes some time to catch up. His breakout seemed to start at the end of last season, his hot spring is encouraging, and his high ceiling makes him a great value still.

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