Fantasy Football NFL Rookie Fallers: 5 Sliding Prospects

April 18, 2025

Brandon's five NFL rookie fallers for fantasy. His five rookies sliding down fantasy football and positional rankings ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft.

As the fantasy football season approaches, rookies often generate a lot of buzz leading up to the draft. These fresh faces bring excitement, potential, and uncertainty to rosters, with some expected to make an immediate impact while others might need time to develop. However, as the pre-draft rankings evolve, some rookies experience a fall from grace, with their stock slipping for reasons ranging from potential team fit to concerns about their ability to adjust to the NFL. For fantasy managers, understanding these drops can help make more informed decisions when selecting young talent, especially in a year when the rookie class is filled with both potential stars and question marks.

In recent years, we’ve seen rookies who initially generated hype fail to live up to the lofty expectations set for them. Whether it’s due to an underwhelming training camp, injuries, or poor preseason performances, these players often fall out of favor with analysts and fantasy managers alike. Yet, just because a player’s draft stock slips doesn’t necessarily mean they’re doomed for failure. In some cases, it can create an opportunity for savvy fantasy owners to snatch up undervalued talent in the later rounds—if they’re willing to take the risk.

This article will delve into the rookies whose pre-draft rankings have taken a hit, analyzing the reasons behind their drops and whether they still have the potential to become fantasy football assets. We’ll explore the factors contributing to their slide down the rankings, highlight potential hidden gems, and offer insight into how you can leverage these shifts in your fantasy draft strategy. After all, in fantasy football, a fall in rankings sometimes signals a chance to buy low on a future star.

Shedeur Sanders - QB, Colorado

Shedeur Sanders enters the 2025 NFL Draft as a top-tier quarterback prospect, bringing a polished skill set and impressive college production to the NFL. After starting his career at Jackson State under his father, Deion Sanders, Shedeur transferred to Colorado, where he elevated his game against FBS competition. In his final season in 2024, Sanders threw for 4,134 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just four interceptions, leading all FBS quarterbacks with a 74.0% completion percentage.

His career stats are equally notable: across 50 games, he amassed 14,327 passing yards, 134 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions, with a career completion rate of 70.1%. Sanders’s accuracy and efficiency make him a promising fantasy football prospect, particularly for dynasty leagues, though his value will hinge on his NFL landing spot and offensive support.

Sanders’ advanced metrics further highlight his potential as a fantasy asset. He led the 2025 draft class with an 81% completion rate from a clean pocket and a 70% on-target rate on throws 10+ yards downfield. His 10.6 yards per attempt and 10% touchdown rate also ranked first among his peers, showcasing his ability to generate big plays.

Additionally, Sanders operated without design help (no play-action, motion, RPO, or screens) on 48% of his passes, the highest rate in his class, proving he can thrive in pure dropback situations. However, his limited mobility is a cause for concern for fantasy managers—Sanders recorded -50 rushing yards in 2024 and only four rushing touchdowns, meaning his fantasy production will rely heavily on his passing stats rather than his dual-threat upside.

While Sanders’ arm talent and poise under pressure (he took 99 sacks over two seasons at Colorado yet maintained elite production) make him a high-floor prospect, there are areas for improvement that could impact his fantasy outlook. His tendency to drift backward in the pocket may lead to increased sacks or turnovers in the NFL, especially if he lands on a team with a weak offensive line.

Additionally, his lack of rushing production caps his ceiling compared to mobile quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson, who can rack up points on the ground. Still, Sanders’s accuracy, big-game experience (36-14 record as a starter), and ability to elevate his teammates—he threw 14 touchdowns to Travis Hunter in 2024—suggest he could develop into a reliable QB1 in fantasy, especially in a pass-heavy offense with strong weapons.

As for now, Sanders is starting to see himself fall further behind Miami QB Cam Ward and into a tier with Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart.

My Current Rookie Ranking - QB3

Dylan Sampson - RB, Tennessee

Dylan Sampson, the record-breaking running back from Tennessee, entered the 2025 NFL Draft with high expectations after a stellar 2024 season in which he led the SEC with 1,491 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns on 258 carries, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. His 22 rushing touchdowns tied for fourth nationally, and he added 37 receptions for 318 yards and one touchdown over his final two college seasons, showing modest growth as a receiver.

Sampson’s elite speed—clocked at 10.48 seconds in the 100-meter dash in high school—and explosiveness (15.60% explosiveness rate, per advanced metrics) made him a dynamic runner, capable of turning small creases into big plays.

His 28.51% avoided tackle rate and 3.64 yards created per carry highlight his elusiveness and ability to generate yardage independently, earning him SEC Offensive Player of the Year honors and a second-team All-American nod. However, at 5-foot-8 and 200 pounds, his smaller frame and lack of physical dominance have raised concerns about his ability to handle a full NFL workload.

Despite his college production, Sampson’s draft stock has been slipping, reflected in his dynasty rookie rankings, where he’s often slotted as a late second or early third-round pick. His limited receiving upside—evidenced by a 3.19 Receiving Score and 1.06 yards per route run—along with struggles in pass protection, suggest he may be relegated to an early-down role in the NFL, diminishing his fantasy appeal in PPR leagues.

Additionally, Sampson’s four fumbles in 2024 and lack of contact balance (62% of yards after contact, middle of the pack for his class) have drawn scrutiny, as has his tendency to struggle against stronger defenders when running between the tackles. In a deep 2025 running back class featuring talents like Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton, Sampson’s one-dimensional skill set and questions about his translatability have caused him to fall behind other prospects with more well-rounded profiles, making him a riskier pick for fantasy managers seeking immediate impact.

My Current Rookie Ranking - RB9

Devin Neal - RB, Kansas

Devin Neal, the Kansas Jayhawks’ all-time leading rusher, enters the 2025 NFL Draft with a decorated college resume that initially positioned him as a top running back prospect. Over four seasons, Neal racked up 4,343 rushing yards on 760 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and scored 49 rushing touchdowns while adding 77 receptions for 711 yards and four receiving touchdowns.

In his senior year of 2024, he posted 1,266 yards and 16 touchdowns on 219 carries (5.8 YPC), alongside 24 catches for 254 yards and one touchdown. His elusiveness is a standout trait, as he forced 126 missed tackles over his final two seasons (421 carries), and his 2023 season alone saw him force 60 missed tackles with a 6.3 YPC average.

Neal’s vision, patience, and short-area quickness—highlighted by his ability to make sharp cuts and accelerate through gaps—make him a dangerous runner in zone schemes, and his soft hands in the passing game add versatility for fantasy managers.

However, Neal’s draft stock and fantasy rankings have been dipping, with some dynasty rookie mocks placing him in the late third to early fourth round, a decline from earlier Day 2 projections. His 4.58-second 40-yard dash time at the combine and lack of top-end breakaway speed—evidenced by a 14th-ranked career breakaway percentage among rookie RBs.

Additionally, his eighth-lowest Relative Athletic Score (RAS) among running backs signals below-average athleticism for the position, and his smaller frame (5-foot-11, 213 pounds) lacks the power to thrive as a between-the-tackles runner, limiting his short-yardage effectiveness. With only 77 career receptions and some noted focus drops, his receiving upside is modest, and in a loaded 2025 RB class featuring more dynamic prospects like TreVeyon Henderson and Jeanty, Neal’s one-cut style and lack of elite traits have caused him to fall behind as a fantasy prospect.

My Current Rookie Ranking - RB13

Luther Burden III - WR, Missouri

Luther Burden III was once heralded as a top wide receiver prospect for the 2025 NFL Draft, showcasing elite playmaking ability during his time at Missouri. Over three seasons, Burden recorded 192 receptions for 2,263 yards and 21 touchdowns, with his 2023 sophomore campaign being his most dominant: 86 catches for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 14.1 yards per catch.

In 2024, he added 61 receptions for 676 yards and six touchdowns while also contributing four rushing touchdowns on 15 carries for 119 yards, demonstrating his versatility. Burden’s explosiveness is evident in his ability to turn short passes into big gains, with advanced metrics showing a 40% forced missed tackle rate on receptions in 2023, and his 6.2 yards after catch (YAC) average ranked among the best in the SEC.

His quickness off the line, sharp route-running, and ability to play both outside and in the slot made him a matchup nightmare in college, initially projecting him as a top 10 draft pick.

However, Burden’s draft stock and fantasy football rankings have taken a hit, with many dynasty rookie mocks now slotting him as a late first-round or early second-round pick, a significant drop from his earlier WR1 projections. His 2024 season was a step back in production—his yards per catch dropped to 11.1, and his 676 receiving yards were a career low, partly due to inconsistent quarterback play and a 10% drop rate on catchable targets, one of the highest among top WR prospects.

Additionally, at six feet and 206 pounds, Burden’s smaller frame and lack of elite top-end speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash at the combine) have raised concerns about his ability to consistently separate against NFL cornerbacks, especially on deep routes, where his catch rate on 20+ yard targets fell to 35% in 2024.

In a deep 2025 wide receiver class featuring players like Tetairoa McMillan and Jayden Higgins, who offer more size or speed, Burden’s lack of a defining elite trait and recent regression have caused him to slide in fantasy rankings, making him a riskier pick for managers seeking immediate WR1 production.

My Current Rookie Ranking - WR8

Xavier Restrepo - WR, Miami

Xavier Restrepo emerged as a standout wide receiver at Miami, capping his college career in 2024 with a record-breaking season that showcased his reliability as a target. Over five seasons, Restrepo amassed 241 receptions for 3,220 yards and 24 touchdowns, with his final year being his best: 85 catches for 1,127 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 13.3 yards per catch.

His 2024 performance earned him First-Team All-ACC honors, and he set Miami’s single-season record for receptions while leading the ACC with 7.1 catches per game. Restrepo’s advanced metrics highlight his consistency, with a 78% catch rate on catchable targets and a 2.1 yards-per-route run average, making him a quarterback’s best friend in the short-to-intermediate passing game.

His quickness in and out of breaks, reliable hands (only four drops in 2024), and ability to thrive in the slot positioned him as a potential Day 3 draft pick with fantasy upside in PPR leagues.

Despite his college production, Restrepo’s fantasy football rankings have been slipping, with many dynasty rookie mocks now placing him in the fourth round, a decline from earlier projections as a third-round prospect. His 5-foot-10, 209-pound frame and lack of elite athletic traits—evidenced by a 4.83-second 40-yard dash and a seventh-lowest Relative Athletic Score (RAS) among WR prospects—raise concerns about his ability to separate against NFL defenders, particularly on the outside, where he played only 15% of his snaps in 2024.

Restrepo’s deep-ball production was also limited, with a 30% catch rate on targets 20+ yards downfield, and his 5.1 yards after catch (YAC) average is pedestrian compared to more explosive receivers in the 2025 class, like Isaiah Bond or Emeka Egbuka. In a draft class loaded with bigger, faster wideouts, Restrepo’s slot-only profile and lack of a high ceiling have caused him to fall in fantasy rankings, making him more of a WR5/6 flier than a potential fantasy starter.

My Current Rookie Ranking - WR20

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