Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Starting Pitchers Delivering Elite Results

Dan analyzes 5 pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are surging. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

So much of the early part of the season is spent attempting to determine which breakouts (and busts) are real and which players are bound to regress to their mean.

A careful approach would be to avoid reading too much into only five weeks of production, when the season still has four months to go. This isn't fantasy football, where you have to make judgments based on much smaller sample sizes. However, it would be foolish to ignore the outlier results, too, as players take big leaps (and great falls) in production every season for various reasons.

In this article, I am going to break down five of the hottest starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. All five of these pitchers have exceeded expectations over the first month of the season based on where they were drafted. The only question that remains is, "Can we count on them to keep it going, or should we consider some of them as potential sell-high targets?"

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Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

2025 Fantasy Stats: 37 IP, 4 W, 40 K, 1.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 2.66 SIERA, 2.88 xERA, 29.9% K%, 50.6% GB%, 112 Stuff+

Not to toot my own horn, but yours truly had Brown circled, starred, and underlined on his draft sheet this year. I wrote about him a few times, including in this piece, where I mentioned he was one of a few pitchers available after pick 100 who qualified under my magic formula of high K%, high GB%, low BB%, and solid contact metrics.

Are those percentiles good? I'd say, "yeah, that's pretty darn good." I love the movement profiles on Baseball Savant because they show us so much, including how a pitcher's pitches move in comparison to those of other pitchers of the same handedness (the shaded, color-coded circles).

Not only does Brown get above-average iVB on his four-seamer, he's also getting a ton of drop (55 inches) on his 12-6 curveball that falls off the table from his over-the-top arm angle. He throws his curveball harder than most at 84 mph. Still, the drastic difference in vertical movement between his fastball and sinker has kept hitters off guard, leading to his fastball being more effective than ever before (.192 xBA, .227 xwOBA).

Brown's start to the year is drastically different from how he started the 2024 season. After six starts last year, Brown was 0-4 with an ERA of 9.78 and a WHIP over 2.00! Even the fantasy baseball Zen master, Nick Mariano, admitted to me that he cut Brown in a league last year after his woeful start to the 2024 campaign; it was that bad.

But around this time last season, Brown introduced a sinker to his repertoire, allowing him to be less dependent on his four-seam fastball and giving him another high-velocity pitch to throw besides his cutter, which was being hit hard.

This season, he's upped the sinker usage even more while also throwing his changeup and curveball more, too. He's nearly ditched the cutter entirely, which is a good move since it was by far his worst pitch in terms of its batted ball metrics.

When we look under the hood, there are no real major red flags here for regression. Sure, his BABIP and HR/FB are low compared to prior years, but I'd chalk some of that up to his improved stuff and his overall profile. The strand rate is also high at 84.5 percent, but it's not something that will make a massive difference in his ratios, even if it were to normalize in the mid-70s range.

Verdict: Brown has transformed into one of the better young pitchers in the game. His ERA and WHIP are so low that they are not sustainable; however, his underlying numbers all indicate that he could still easily outperform his 2024 stats and thus finish the year as a major value based on where he was drafted. Enjoy the ride, the Hunter Brown breakout is for real.

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

2025 Fantasy Stats: 35.1 IP, 5 W, 39 K, 1.78 ERA, 0.82 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.05 SIERA, 3.06 xERA, 29.3% K%, 31.8% GB%, 99 Stuff+

The Padres have to be thrilled with what they are getting from Pivetta so far. He was a big strikeout guy in Boston, but has never finished with an ERA under 4.00 in his career, as he's always been a fly-ball pitcher who is susceptible to giving up home runs.

We haven't seen a major arsenal change from Pivetta; he's still pounding hitters with his fastball about 50 percent of the time. And at just 94 mph, he's able to still pump it by hitters up in the zone thanks to the elite induced vertical break that gives it rising action.

Nick Pivetta, Wicked 80mph Sweeper. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/AQ2ZmbTTsC

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2025

Like Brown, Pivetta comes over the top with a 58-degree arm angle, mixing in both a big 12-6 curveball and an 82 mph sweeper. The sweeper has a 41.7% whiff rate so far, and he's been locating it on the edge of the strike zone or just outside the zone with incredible accuracy.

There are some excellent signs here for Pivetta's chances of continued success, including what would be a career-best Z-Contact% of 73.8%. I think the key to his success is linked to the perfect pitch placement that we've seen, which is reflected in his 112 Location+ rating. We saw a mini-breakthrough last year when he finished at 107 in Location+, but he's been even more precise this season and has everything working exactly how he wants it to against both righties and lefties.

Verdict: While the ERA is bound for regression at some point for a fly-ball heavy pitcher, Pivetta has demonstrated these strikeout chops before and was on an upward trajectory in his final years in Boston. The Padres have unlocked his upside even further and may have made one of the savviest offseason signings in baseball this year. I expect Pivetta's numbers to level off a bit, but there's no reason he can't have a career season in 2025 based on what he's shown so far.

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

2025 Fantasy Stats: 36.1 IP, 3 W, 41 K, 1.73 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.11 SIERA, 2.69 xERA, 28.3% K%, 44.1% GB%, 100 Stuff+

It almost seemed too easy in drafts to click on Jesus Luzardo in the late rounds. I couldn't understand how his ADP was 200+ based on how good he had been in Miami before his injury last season. I know that injury risk is factored into ADP, and that Luzardo had just two seasons with 100 or more innings. However, he had shown some impressive strikeout numbers and was set to join one of the best staffs in baseball in Philadelphia.

Jesús Luzardo, Dirty 86mph Sweeper. ✝️🦎 pic.twitter.com/T7lSGz4q4p

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 10, 2025

But let's focus on the present. Luzardo is healthy and looks great. The most significant change in his arsenal was the introduction of a sweeper as his primary breaking pitch, and it's yielded some elite results. The pitch has a .129 xBA, .181 xwOBA, and 46.9% whiff rate - whoa! He still mixes in a tighter-breaking slider, too, around 10 percent of the time, to give hitters a different look.

He's throwing all five pitches (sinker and changeup being the other two) effectively, and his location has been pinpoint. As I mentioned with Pivetta, Luzardo has an impressive Location+ rating of 112. This is the best mark of his career by far, and now that he's been able to locate his already nasty stuff, he's been nearly unhittable.

Luzardo's strikeouts might be the most sustainable of the group featured in this article. Unlike the others, his high strikeout rate is backed by an equally elite SwStr% of 14.2%. I'm not seeing many signs of major regression here, as Luzardo's batted ball data supports the breakout (or perhaps resurgence is a better term) as much as his strikeouts.

Verdict: We've seen Luzardo yield premier fantasy stats before, and he's made a very impactful tweak to his arsenal with the addition of the sweeper. Pitching for a good team with plenty of offense behind him, he could be ready to set a career high in wins (he needs just 11 to do that), and I'd be riding the hot start as long as possible and not all that willing to entertain trade offers that come my way.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

2025 Fantasy Stats: 36 IP, 3 W, 27 K, 2.25 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.79 SIERA, 3.06 xERA, 18.9% K%, 46.7% GB%, 100 Stuff+

While I am generally pleased with the overall results Lodolo has provided so far, I'll start by saying that something feels a little off here. I have a lot of Lodolo shares this season as he was yet another guy, like Luzardo, that I targeted heavily around pick 200.

The ratios from Lodolo have been a pleasant surprise, but the lack of strikeouts is puzzling. We saw his K% drop in 2024 to 24.7 percent after being in the high 20s in his first two seasons. Now, he's dropped to 18.9% on just a 10.1 SwStr% and 25% CSW%. Perhaps he can revive that back up into the low 20s, but I'm not holding my breath.

Lodolo throws from a nearly side-arm slot at 15 degrees. Because of that, most of his pitches have much more horizontal than vertical movement. He gets a lot of arm-side run from his fastball, sinker, and changeup, but his curveball isn't breaking nearly as sharply as it was just two seasons ago. It's still been a very effective pitch, especially at 81 mph, where it helps his 93 mph fastball play up to hitters.

The lack of strikeouts is one factor contributing to his SIERA being a full run and a half higher, although he has been terrific in limiting walks at just 3.5 percent. His career walk rate isn't alarming at 7.3 percent, but I'd be surprised if he keeps up this type of elite control.

My "taking advantage of bad teams" alert is also going off here, as so far he's faced the Rockies, Marlins, Mariners, Brewers, and Giants (twice). Those last three teams aren't bad, but are on the wrong side of their splits against lefties, and just two of those starts came at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park.

We do have a trio of red flags here with a 9.5 percent HR/FB (not all that unsustainable, but remember, he pitches in Cincy 50 percent of the time), .214 BABIP, and 85 percent LOB percentage. All three numbers may not regress towards the mean, but even if only one or two do, that's going to mean a dip in run prevention.

Verdict: This is a very mixed bag of advanced stats. Lodolo seems to have traded some strikeouts for control and better run prevention. That will still play just fine for fantasy purposes, but I think there's still some negative regression to come in his ERA and WHIP. Of all the pitchers in this article, I have the least amount of confidence in Lodolo maintaining his current level of production.

Tylor Megill, New York Mets

2025 Fantasy Stats: 31 IP, 3 W, 39 K, 1.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.21 SIERA, 2.90 xERA, 29.8% K%, 42.9% GB%, 112 Stuff+

Remember when we talked about how Brown simplified his repertoire by ditching his cutter and focusing on throwing his sinker more? Well, Megill did the same thing this season while also ditching his split-finger and upping his slider usage. Some individuals, like Schwellenbach, can be true six-pitch pitchers, while for others, less is more.

Your favorite neighborhood pitching tout was on Megill before the season started. You can go back and see what I said about him (and Max Meyer and Kris Bubic) here. I promise I didn't write this article just to take victory laps on good calls (well, at least not entirely).

Megill is now primarily a three-pitch pitcher, which is working out just fine for him, especially since his slider has been phenomenal, with a .215 xBA and a 40% whiff rate. He's getting excellent movement on it with 46.2 inches of vertical drop, which ranks as the slider with the best vertical movement in baseball when compared to similar pitches.

We saw Megill show signs of this type of potential at the end of last season, and he's picked right up where he left off. Yes, the 3.8% HR/FB will regress a bit, but the other red flags I usually check for in BABIP and LOB% both check out just fine.

If I have to get picky, I would point out that his 29% strikeout rate probably isn't sustainable on just a 10.2 SwStr percentage and 28 percent CSW percentage. But even if he levels off somewhere around 25%, you're still probably looking at some excellent results from a guy who was being taken outside the top 300 in drafts.

Verdict: Megill is found money at this point. Sure, you can shop him for a guy with a more proven track record, but with the Mets having proven that they can get the best out of their starters, Megill may be a starter who could produce above-average results all season long. I'd enjoy the value, and for those of us who touted him in the preseason, it feels good to have hit another late-round breakout.

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