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Dan looks for starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, values and draft targets for 2025. He analyzes studs to identify key metrics for finding upside SPs.
I am constantly hunting for fantasy baseball starting pitcher targets with upside that I can target outside the top 100 picks yearly.
This year I conducted another little research project of sorts in my never-ending quest for unearthing starting pitching talent in the middle and later rounds of 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. Below you'll find some of my favorite pitchers to target.
In this article, I'll examine which key statistics make up a quality starting pitcher for fantasy baseball -- and then I'll give you some of my favorite less-obvious targets for drafts.
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Qualities We Look For In Starting Pitchers
For standard Roto and H2H 5x5 leagues, we care the most about wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and saves. Since we are talking about starting pitchers, we can forget about saves. Since wins are pretty random and have a lot more to do with factors that are outside a starting pitcher's control (run support, bullpens), let's not concern ourselves with those either.
So we are laser-focused here on ERA, WHIP, and Ks.
My favorite ERA indicator is SIERA and you'll see me reference it in just about every pitching article I write. I also pay attention to GB% as I am a firm believer that more ground balls than fly balls is usually a good thing for ERA when it comes to batted ball results.
For strikeout numbers, I think it's always important to look beyond just K% to CSW% and SwStr%. And lately, I've been looking at Stuff+ ratings when looking for strikeouts as K% and Stuff+ ratings are highly correlated.
We can't forget about walks, as walk rates can greatly impact WHIP. So you'll see BB% and K-BB% in the charts that follow.
In a perfect world, I want pitchers who can strikeout hitters at an above-average rate while also keeping their walks low, keeping the ball on the ground as much as possible, and limiting the amount of loud contact from opposing hitters. Is that too much to ask?
The Studs Who Do It All
| Name | SIERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | GB% | Barrel% | SwStr% | CSW% | Stuff+ |
| Garrett Crochet | 2.53 | 1.07 | 35.10% | 5.50% | 29.60% | 45.10% | 9.20% | 16.20% | 30.70% | 113 |
| Paul Skenes | 2.71 | 0.95 | 33.10% | 6.20% | 26.80% | 51.30% | 5.20% | 13.10% | 29.40% | 110 |
| Tarik Skubal | 2.89 | 0.92 | 30.30% | 4.60% | 25.60% | 45.70% | 6.70% | 14.60% | 32.10% | 111 |
| Logan Gilbert | 3.19 | 0.89 | 27.40% | 4.60% | 22.80% | 45.10% | 7.20% | 14.90% | 30.10% | 101 |
| Framber Valdez | 3.41 | 1.11 | 24.00% | 7.80% | 16.20% | 60.60% | 5.30% | 11.40% | 29.80% | 106 |
So when conducting the search for which pitchers match all of the criteria, I set the benchmarks around league-average or better in each of the following categories.
- SIERA - 4.00 or lower
- K% - 24% or higher
- BB% - 8% or lower
- GB% - 45% or higher
- Barrel% - 9% or lower
- Stuff+ - 100 or higher
It's no surprise that some of the names atop the list are elite pitchers who had huge years in 2024. Skenes and Skubal are the first two pitchers off the board in drafts, while Crochet and Gilbert are long gone by the second or third round.
Framber Valdez is a unique pitcher in that he's a Logan Webb-level groundball artist and a solid strikeout guy. But even Valdez is off the board by around pick 60. What we want to do in this article is find some pitchers who have similar statistical profiles that are available after pick 100.
More Affordable Starting Pitcher Values
| Name | SIERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | GB% | Barrel% | SwStr% | CSW% | Stuff+ |
| Justin Steele | 3.74 | 1.1 | 24.30% | 6.70% | 17.70% | 44.80% | 4.20% | 10.60% | 27.70% | 104 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 3.64 | 1.11 | 23.90% | 6.00% | 17.80% | 48.30% | 7.70% | 13.00% | 28.60% | 100 |
| Nick Lodolo | 3.78 | 1.2 | 24.70% | 7.50% | 17.20% | 44.70% | 8.20% | 11.80% | 29.20% | 104 |
| Hunter Brown | 3.82 | 1.28 | 24.90% | 8.70% | 16.20% | 48.20% | 4.40% | 10.30% | 26.80% | 102 |
Hunter Brown - Houston Astros
ADP: 105
Baller Move: 93
Hunter Brown improved in just about every possible statistical category from his 2023 rookie season to his 2024 sophomore campaign. He lowered his ERA a full run and a half from 5.09 to 3.49. That ERA was no fluke either, as it's backed by a 3.15 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, and a 3.82 SIERA.
His WHIP was still a bit high at 1.28, and if we are being super picky, then I'd love to see fewer walks. But the league average WHIP is still right around 1.3, so it's always good to keep that in perspective. He bounced back from a terrible start to last season and finished the final four months of the season incredibly strong.
Last year, Brown dropped his fastball usage from 45% to 35% while also adding a sinker and reshaping his slider. He now throws six pitches! He can run his sinker in on righties while also being able to go away from them with three different speeds of breaking pitches (cutter, slider, curveball).
I think the floor is incredibly high here with Brown as he's proven to be a solid strikeout pitcher who can also provide run prevention with his ground-ball tendency and growing repertoire of pitches. He's also been durable in his first two full seasons, tossing 155 and 170 innings in the last two seasons.
He's probably not going to approach the type of numbers we see from the elite tier of starters in the league, but I think he's firmly in the mix for the second tier and a very safe pick at this stage of the draft.
Justin Steele - Chicago Cubs
ADP: 126
Baller Move: 118
Let's play a little game here. Which of these lefties would you rather have on your fantasy team this season? Here are their career numbers - both are roughly the same age and have similar MLB experience. Let's hold that all other factors (defense, ballpark, health) are equal in this scenario.
- Justin Steele - 3.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 24.4% K%, 50.9% GB%, 28.1% CSW%
- Pitcher "X" - 4.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 24.6% K%, 43% GB%, 28.0% CSW%
It's close, but I'll take Steele for his superior ERA and ground ball rate. If you were wondering, "Player X" is Nestor Cortes, who is being drafted on average 25 spots ahead of Steele in drafts right now.
Justin Steele's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/3VPnEtm6kz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 22, 2025
The only explanation for his depressed ADP is that he made just 24 starts last year due to missing a month and a half at the beginning of the season. He's healthy coming into this year and has looked great so far this Spring. He's one of the more dominant lefties in baseball, and he does it without throwing harder than 92 MPH (if you're worried about drafting too many flamethrowers who may be bigger injury risks).
Nathan Eovaldi - Texas Rangers
ADP: 198
Baller Move: 187
I'm not sure there is a more well-rounded and proven starting pitcher this late in the draft. Eovaldi was quite boringly good last year in Texas, finishing with the best WHIP of his career (1.11) while tossing 170 innings across 29 starts.
His days of throwing in the high 90s are long behind him, but he still brings it 95 MPH with his heater while continuing to increase his splitter usage in each of the last three seasons (31% last year) to Kevin Gausman-like levels.
The splitter was a very effective pitch for him last season and helped transform him into a groundball-heavy pitcher when he was once someone who struggled with allowing home runs in his first few seasons as a starter in Boston.
Eovaldi had a solid 6% walk rate and his best SwStr% in five seasons as he finished at 13%. He's entering his age 35 season but has plenty of tread left on his tires as he's only thrown more than 150 innings four times in his career.
Nick Lodolo - Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 234
Baller Move: 215
We jump into the late rounds for our final qualifier - former blue-chip prospect Nick Lodolo of the Cincinnati Reds.
Lodolo has struggled through some arm issues early in his career, topping out at just 115 innings last season in 21 starts. But the six-foot-six lefty is still just 27 years old and possesses some impressive tools in his arsenal.
He throws his fastball around 94 MPH on average, but it plays up a bit because of his length and because he has such an effective breaking ball to keep hitters off balance. His curveball is one of the filthier pitches, with a Stuff+ rating of 125, 35.2% CSW%, and .171 xAVG last season.
Nick Lodolo, Wipeout 83mph Breaking Ball. 🌊 pic.twitter.com/NSf7JEB9yc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2024
His K% dropped to 24.7% last season - which is still solid - but he flashed 28% and 29% rates in his first two seasons and has a career SwStr% of 13.5%. He has major swing-and-miss stuff but his Location+ of 99 suggests that he still needs to improve his location to truly harness his upside.
If he can stay healthy this year, we could see him emerge as a legit ace alongside Hunter Greene in the Cincy rotation. His stuff is that good; he needs to continue to focus on locating his pitches and developing more consistency. He's oozing upside and is an easy pick this late in drafts, as there's very little risk attached to taking him here.
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