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Elliott's 5 comeback fantasy baseball pitchers - draft values, sleepers, targets with big upside for 2026. His SP picks include Cole Ragans, Kyle Bradish, more.
Hey RotoBallers, it's that time of year again. Fantasy baseball draft season is in high gear, and Opening Day is right around the corner! With everyone dreaming of their breakout picks and top prospects right now, we've got a good opportunity to peek under the hood at some pitchers who struggled with injuries or performance in 2025.
These are guys who missed most or all of last season with injuries that could be quite valuable on draft day. I've identified pitchers from all ranges in the draft, from top-50 players to a pitcher going after pick 300.
These pitchers will carry risk heading into the season, so there's a little something for everyone depending on your risk tolerance. ADP is taken from NFBC drafts as of February 15, 2026.
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Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
NFBC ADP: 56.08
Ragans made just 13 starts last season and had an ugly 4.67 ERA in 61 2/3 innings. A rotator cuff injury cost him a big chunk of the 2025 season, and he never really got his footing. Despite the injury history and poor ERA, there’s a lot to like about Ragans coming into the 2026 season.
His underlying skills from 2025 were actually some of his best ever, with Ragans posting a 2.52 SIERA and 30.4% K-BB%. Those are elite numbers, and his ERA was driven up by an unfortunate .354 BABIP against and a 64.4% LOB rate. The BABIP was more than 60 points above Ragans’ career mark, and the LOB rate was 7% lower than his career average. It’d be safe to bet on both of those numbers regressing towards the mean in 2026.
This isn’t just about bad luck with Ragans either. There is some Cy Young-caliber stuff in that left arm. His 95.3 mph fastball puts him solidly above average, and with 17 inches of induced vertical break and a whopping 13.8 inches of arm side run, Ragans’ fastball has a truly unique shape that is tough for hitters to read. Here’s a look at his pitch movement profile from last season.
That is truly a wild fastball shape, and batters struggled against this pitch. Opponents hit .225 with a .422 SLG and .315 wOBA. Even better, Ragans had a .187 xBA, .383 xSLG, and .286 xwOBA against his four-seamer. His 28.6% whiff rate was great for a fastball, and he was routinely hammering it upstairs to opponents. The plus velocity and exceptional movement make those high fastballs particularly nasty and tough to hit.
Here’s a look at a fastball from last season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 15, 2026
That’s a plus pitch, but it’s certainly not his best offering. That would be the changeup, which isn’t just elite, but one could argue is the best changeup among starting pitchers in baseball right now. It’s between him and Tarik Skubal. Ragans' 50.4% whiff rate was the highest on changeups in the majors (min. 200 pitches), and opponents flailed to a .193 AVG, .351 SLG, and .253 wOBA.
Again, the expected stats are even better, with Ragans putting up a .159 xBA, .254 xSLG, and .202 xwOBA with the pitch. He probably won’t sustain a 50.4% whiff rate over a full season, but he was at 47.8% in 2024 when he pitched 186 1/3 innings.
Overall, I wouldn’t expect a repeat of his 38.1% K rate. Expect him to land between 28% and 30%, which is still elite but not the best in the game. He has two plus breaking balls in addition to the changeup, which are the slider and knuckle curve. He’s routinely had whiff rates above 30% with each pitch, and he had a .164 xBA, .235 xSLG, and .199 xwOBA off the slider last season.
Ragans is this year’s “if he stays healthy” guy. Because if he stays healthy, he has top-5 upside. He is one of the game’s elite strikeout pitchers; he has good command, and his underlying numbers have always been there. He’s not a player I want 100% exposure to, but Ragans is someone I want at least one share of this season. When the stuff is elite, I’m willing to take a chance on injury risk, provided I stabilize innings with other pitchers later on in my draft.
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
NFBC ADP: 71.93
Kirby had the worst year of his professional career in 2025, posting a bloated 4.21 ERA in 126 innings along with a career-worst 4.72 K/BB ratio. His walk rate rose to 5.5%, which is still very good, but not at the elite level we came to know from Kirby in years past.
He missed the first two months of the season with right shoulder inflammation and got off to a rough start, getting tagged for 11 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his first two outings. He had ups and downs throughout the season, and ultimately didn’t live up to his draft cost in 2025. At 28 years old, Kirby is in the prime of his career and has the ability and opportunity to bounce back in 2026.
First, let’s look at what went right for Kirby in 2025. He actually had the highest strikeout rate of his career at 26.1%, and his K-BB% of 20.6% was in line with his career numbers. In fact, despite a high ERA, he posted a strong 3.37 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, and 3.39 SIERA, all suggesting he pitched much better than his ERA indicated.
His higher strikeout rate appears to have been catalyzed by an increase in curveball usage and effectiveness. He threw the curveball 12.1% of the time in 2025, his highest usage since his rookie year. He also had much better underlying numbers on the curveball, including a 39.7% whiff rate and a 40.6% chase rate. He changed his approach with the pitch, with his zone rate plummeting to 34.8% with the curveball, compared to a 48.5% career zone rate.
Let’s compare his curveball heat maps from 2025 to the rest of his career.
2022-2024:
2025:
He’s hammering beneath the zone much more frequently, which is exactly where a pitcher wants to be if they want to earn whiffs. Batters really struggled against this pitch in 2025, hitting just .217 with a .267 SLG and .218 wOBA. In 2024, batters crushed it for a .321 AVG, .411 SLG, and .331 wOBA. This new approach with the curveball has proven more effective for both outs and strikeouts, even if it means fewer pitches in the zone and perhaps more walks for Kirby overall.
He primarily throws it to left-handed batters, though I’d love to see him up the curveball usage a little more in 2026.
Kirby also increased his slider usage to a career high 27.4% and had a career best 30.9% whiff rate with the pitch. That’s not an exceptional number for a slider, but it’s solid for him and should help increase his strikeout prowess against righties. He even posted a career-best 30.7% whiff rate with his four-seamer in 2025, and a 30% whiff rate on a fastball is very strong. Batters hit just .188 off the pitch with a .341 SLG and a .271 wOBA as well.
Kirby made an adjustment to his approach with the four-seamer in 2025, throwing it less in the zone (career-low 51.7% zone rate) and less often (career-low 29% usage). His chase rate was way down in 2025, at just 31.2%, compared to his career mark of 38%. Like with the curveball, Kirby seems to be intentionally throwing it out of the zone more often, though to a lesser degree. Let’s compare his career four-seam heatmap to the 2025 one.
2022-2024:
2025:
Can you take me higher, to a place where blind men swing? Kirby kept the ball up above the zone with regularity in 2025, and high fastballs are where hitters swing and miss. Kirby has outstanding command, so he’s in the perfect position to execute this type of strategy. This is why I think Kirby’s strikeout gains are sustainable. His stuff may not be tippy-top elite, but it plays up because he can put the ball wherever he wants.
Now, one of the biggest statistical changes for Kirby in 2025 was his ballooning walk rate. It was at 5.5%, which is still very good, but Kirby could hang around 2.5-3% in the years prior. This increase in walk rate seems to be a result of his new approach. He’s getting fewer chases on the four-seamer, and his walk rate on the four-seamer doubled in 2025 to 9%.
That makes sense once hitters have the book on his new approach. They know he’s not going to hammer the zone as he had in years past, so it can be easier to lay off. The good news for Kirby is that he still possesses that ability if he wants to shift his approach, and even if his walk rate stays around 5%, it won’t hurt him that much. His increased strikeout rate should help prevent those runners from scoring, and his home ballpark is a pitcher’s paradise.
I’d expect some regression on the 12.8% HR/FB ratio, which should bring his ERA closer to his estimators. Prior to last season’s shoulder inflammation, Kirby was a horse, pitching over 190 innings in the two years prior. He could give you a lot of innings, great ratios, and an elevated strikeout rate, all for the cost of a late SP2 (depending on league size).
Despite last season’s injury and increased ERA, I think he’s a lot more reliable than some of the pitchers going around him. I won’t reach for him, but he’s a good candidate to outperform his draft cost.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
NFBC ADP: 84.34
Bradish has made just 14 starts since opening day 2024, as he underwent Tommy John Surgery in June 2024. Still, Bradish was outstanding in the games he did pitch, posting a 2.65 ERA, 2.48 FIP, and 26% K-BB%. Those are ace-like numbers, and Bradish has shown us he can do it for a full season as he posted a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings in 2023, though the underlying metrics weren’t as favorable with a 3.27 FIP and 18.5% K-BB%.
Still, Bradish has the upside of a frontline starter and could outperform his draft cost if healthy.
Bradish works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, slider, four-seamer, and curveball. He threw each pitch at least 13% of the time last season, so he incorporates all four into his sequencing with regularity. His most used pitch has been the sinker, which he threw 32.6% of the time last year.
He’s slightly above average in velocity at 94.8 (A .5 mph drop from 2024, pre-surgery, but in line with 2022-23 velo), but what makes the sinker especially effective is its movement. Bradish got 14 inches of induced vertical break and had 11.5 inches of arm-side movement with the pitch last season. That’s actually slightly more movement than he was getting pre-surgery, and opponents really struggled against the sinker last season.
Batters hit .188 off the sinker with a .250 SLG and a .229 wOBA. The expected stats suggest he overperformed with a .234 xBA, .359 xSLG, and .289 xwOBA. He had an uncharacteristically low 44.8% ground-ball rate with the sinker (57.2% career) and an abnormally high 27.6% line drive rate (21.6% career).
He was living in the zone a little more, with a 62.6% zone rate (58.5% career), which could’ve contributed to the changes in contact against, but it could also be small-sample-size funkiness. What’s important for Bradish is that the sinker shape looked intact compared to pre-surgery. He also had a soft 86.1 mph average exit velocity against and a strong 25% whiff rate, which is great for a sinker.
I’m hopeful he can get more groundballs with it in 2026, because the sinker has all the makings of a plus fastball.
The sinker is a good pitch, but Bradish made his name on the slider. An 87 mph offering, Bradish’s slider is known for being sharp, with 12.2 inches of horizontal break. This aligns with his pre-surgery movement metrics, and the pitch performed well in limited action last season.
Here’s an example of the pitch from last season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 15, 2026
Nasty stuff, and opposing batters really struggled to hit the slider. Opponents managed just a .063 AVG, .156 SLG, and .091 wOBA off the slider. The expected stats suggest that Bradish earned these elite results, with a .086 xBA, .184 xSLG, and .113 xwOBA. He also had a monster 44.4% whiff rate. He’d never had a whiff rate quite that high with the slider before, so I’m not sure if he can sustain it for a full season, nor do I think he will sustain a 37.3% K rate, but this has all the makings of a dominant strikeout pitch.
Bradish also throws a 94.4 mph four-seamer, and while this pitch didn’t perform as well as the others (.286 AVG, .476 SLG against), it does have strong movement with 16 inches of induced vertical break and 1.5 inches of glove-side movement. Bradish’s four-seamer has never performed all that well as opponents are hitting .333 off it all time, and his repertoire works better with the sinker as the primary fastball.
He also throws a curveball, which batters crushed for a .429 AVG, .500 SLG, and .405 wOBA last season, though he did have a .267 xBA, .338 xSLG, and .261 xwOBA. He also has a monster 45.5% whiff rate with the curveball. Again, I don’t think he can sustain such a high whiff rate over a full season, but this has the makings of a legitimate strikeout pitch, too.
It has strong movement at -12.2 inches of induced vertical break and 5.3 inches of glove side movement, and he has a solid 2596 RPM with 69% active spin. It’s not a league-beater curveball, but it’s a good pitch for him to use against lefties or just to fool hitters who are expecting something else.
Altogether, this is a very strong repertoire, and we’ve seen Bradish perform at an ace-like level at times, even if his last two seasons have been marred by injury thanks to TJ surgery. At current cost, he can be had outside the top-30 pitchers (just barely), and I think he can outperform draft cost if healthy. Don’t pair a pitcher like Bradish with Ragans; it’s too risky given the draft cost, but either one represents a pitcher with huge upside if they can stay on the mound for 150 innings or more.
One note, it’s been reported that the Orioles are considering a six-man rotation with the signing of Chris Bassitt. This could hurt Bradish’s workload, but we’ll have to see how it shakes out in the spring.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
NFBC ADP: 249.89
McClanahan has not thrown a pitch in an MLB game since 2023, thanks to Tommy John surgery costing him all of 2024 and a triceps nerve injury costing him all of 2025. He’s supposedly healthy and set to take on a starting role in Tampa Bay once again, but what can we expect from McClanahan?
Prior to these injuries, McClanahan was fast on his way to becoming one of the game’s top left-handed starters. He was known for his hard fastball at 97 mph and his nasty trio of secondary pitches: the changeup, curveball, and slider. He finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in a stacked 2022 season, posting a 2.54 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, and 24.3% K-BB% in 166.1 innings.
We shouldn’t expect that kind of production from McClanahan right away, if ever again, but there’s a lot to like about this southpaw’s talent.
McClanahan is going to be one player I watch closely this spring, because it’ll be really important to see if both his fastball velocity and shape return. He was one of the hardest-throwing left-handed starters in baseball before these injuries, and his plus velocity could both blow past hitters and make his secondary stuff all the more devastating.
McClanahan also got 17.6 inches of induced vertical break and 9.9 inches of arm-side movement when we last saw him in 2023. That’s strong movement on a hard fastball, and we’ve seen McClanahan post good results with solid whiff numbers on this fastball before. I want to see how it looks this spring, but if he can recapture velocity and retain shape, it’s an excellent pitch.
McClanahan boasts three good secondary pitches, the best of which is probably his 86.9 mph changeup. In 2023, this pitch had an unbelievable 54.5% whiff rate, and it has never been lower than 40.5% in any season. Batters are hitting .171 with a .240 SLG against this pitch all time, and with a whopping 16.2 inches of arm-side run, it has some crazy movement for a changeup.
Here’s an example from 2023.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 15, 2026
Nasty stuff, and if McClanahan can recapture that movement and sustain his control, he could be a dominant pitcher once again.
Control is what worries me a bit with McClanahan. He was great at limiting walks and locating in 2021-22, but he started to slip in 2023. His walk rate rose from 5.9% in 2022 to 8.7% in 2023. Control and command tend to be where pitchers struggle coming off Tommy John surgery, and McClanahan is both coming off TJ and coming back from the triceps injury.
He did have a 10.5% walk rate in the minors last season, but it was only 3 1/3 innings, so we can’t really draw any conclusions from that.
The thing that attracts me to McClanahan this season is that he’s basically a forgotten man in drafts. He’s going around pick 250, and he’s shown us he can produce ace-level numbers in the past. I’m not sure how many innings he’ll pitch, but ATC has him at 118 on the low end, and OOPSY has him at 144 on the high end. If he can approach the OOPSY projection, he could be a great bargain at this price.
Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels
NFBC ADP: 333.85
Once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez missed all of 2025 thanks to an elbow injury. He was also traded to the Angels in exchange for Taylor Ward this offseason, a surprising move given that Rodriguez still has plenty of years of team control left, but Baltimore clearly wants to win now based on its offseason moves.
A big, powerful right-hander at 6-foot-5, 230 LBS, Rodriguez was pitching very well last time we saw him. He had a 3.86 ERA in 2024, which is fine, but he also had a 3.61 SIERA and a 19.1% K-BB% along with a raw 26.5% K rate. Those are strong numbers, and he was only 24 years old at the time, suggesting there was room for growth.
We didn’t get to see him build upon that season, and we’ll have to watch him try to bounce back in Los Angeles this year. He’s practically free in drafts, and I think Rodriguez is worth a late-round flier.
One thing we’ll want to look out for in spring training is Rodriguez’s velocity. He averaged 97.4 mph in his rookie season, and that dipped down to 96.1 mph in 2024. It was still plus velocity, and while I’d love to see him get back to 97, even 96 would be a win. Rodriguez got 7.3 feet of extension when throwing his fastball as well, which helps the velocity seem even harder to opposing hitters.
His fastball doesn’t have a ton of vertical break, and his 2024 spin rate was only 2286 RPM, but he does have 99% active spin and 12.7 inches of arm-side run with it that year. That makes it hard to read on top of the hard velocity. Batters hit .287 off the pitch in 2024, but he had a .239 xBA, .392 xSLG, and .320 xwOBA, suggesting that Rodriguez might’ve deserved better results than he got.
Rodriguez got excellent results with his secondary stuff in 2024, especially the changeup. Opponents hit just .161 off the change with a .306 SLG and a .241 wOBA. The expected stats were in line with this as well, with a .175 xBA, .322 xSLG, and a .255 xwOBA. Rodriguez had both plus vertical and horizontal movement with the pitch, and it was a strikeout weapon with a 34.8% whiff rate. Here’s an example from 2024.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 15, 2026
If he can pair that with a 96-97 mph heater, he could be an above-average strikeout pitcher again. He also had a 36.1% whiff rate with his slider that season, and the slider can look nasty at times, too.
Here’s an example from 2024.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 15, 2026
That was a particularly filthy example, but Rodriguez is capable of slinging sliders and changeups along with a hard fastball to dominate hitters.
The biggest concern for Rodriguez, other than health, is control and command. Poor control was the biggest knock on him as a prospect, and his 7.3% walk rate in 2024 represented a marked improvement. It wasn’t Tommy John surgery, but he could still struggle to command pitches and limit walks coming back.
Like with McClanahan, Rodriguez is a pitcher I’m very interested in watching this spring. If the velocity is back, if the movement is intact, and if his control is manageable, he could perhaps recreate the 2024 season. Looking at the other pitchers going around him (Bailey Ober, Jameson Taillon, Sean Manaea), I’d much rather take a stab at a post-hype sleeper like Rodriguez than some bland innings eater at this point in the draft.
If he blows up in your face, cut him after a few starts and pick up another lotto ticket or an innings eater type. If he works out, you’ve got a great value pick.
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