FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 1

September 5, 2024

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 1 (2024) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to another FAAB-tastic fantasy football season. While early adds have hundreds of context-laden wrinkles, we must do our job in presenting waiver options here. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for, especially early. Each league values players differently so you must add the proper context. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, and once the season starts we will add different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.

Your FAAB bids will be determined by projected league aggression, total bench spots, and the overall depth of your league. We'll avoid the, "What is this a six-man league?!" trope but there's an undeniable difference when Bo Melton types are near the top. With that in mind, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 1.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Geno Smith (QB, SEA) - 32% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-2%

Smith saw his completion rate fall from a league-leading 69.8% in 2022 to 64.7% last season, with the majority of the slip coming on mid- and short-yardage throws. But he maintained an interception rate below 2% yet again and still possesses a phenomenal team environment.

If new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb reinvigorates the offense after managing an elite WR trio of his own at the University of Washington then Smith could rebound toward that QB5 status from ‘22. If the offensive line can stay healthy and buy him some space then the team should fly.

We got one drive from Geno Smith in Ryan Grubb's new offense this preseason:

- Pre-snap motion
- Fast pace (10.8 seconds remaining on the clock on average)
- Shotgun 4 of 5 plays
- Slot fade JSN
- Deep TD to DK Metcalf

Small sample, but it looks pretty similar to what we saw at… pic.twitter.com/XD4RcgRdgn

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 29, 2024

Will Levis (QB, TEN) - 18% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%

Levis made a splash with four passing touchdowns in his first NFL start but then went quiet thanks to rookie turbulence and Derrick Henry commanding the red zone. But Henry and Mike Vrabel are out while Brian Callahan, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard are in.

Pollard and Tyjae Spears each caught over 50 passes last season. Ridley and Boyd join DeAndre Hopkins to form a fantastic WR corps. The defense won’t win games. Why can’t Levis make a jump in 2024?

Bo Nix (QB, DEN) - 18% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%

Nix was taken 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and won Denver’s starting QB job in the preseason. He dazzled at Oregon last year, completing 77.4% of passes for over 4,500 yards with 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

He was also unafraid to run, averaging 81 carries per season with 38 rushing touchdowns across his collegiate career. This is the recipe for late-round upside we want to swing for.

Denver will need its depth to step up around Courtland Sutton to provide Nix with pass-catchers but the rookie has the tools to do it himself. We’ll also get to a key running back and tight end flier who could help him ascend later.

Sam Darnold (QB, MIN) - 9% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1

This is simple. You’re banking on Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and eventually, T.J. Hockenson, elevating Darnold into fantasy glory. Kevin O’Connell has put QBs such as Nick Mullens on the map with 300-yard games so why not Darnold?

It’s the best O-line and overall environment that he’s seen thus far and he gets a weak Giants secondary to kick things off. Let’s see what his timing with JJ looks like in Week 1. A reminder that your bearing on Darnold might be tainted:

Sam Darnold didn’t stand a chance his rookie season. These were his top 5 weapons.

1. Robbie Chosen
2. Chris Herndon
3. Quincy Enunwa
4. Jermaine Kearse
5. Terrelle Pryor

The Jets also had the 25th ranked offensive line per PFF. pic.twitter.com/fn9N2yqZ2f

— Dominique Clare (@DomClare) April 18, 2024

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN) - 35% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%

McLaughlin may not have a “workhorse” frame to become a bellcow back but he does possess the explosiveness needed to maximize his opportunities. He was one of 26 RBs to turn in multiple rushes over 30 yards last year with a 5.4 yards per carry figure that tied Christian McCaffrey behind only De'Von Achane (min. 50 carries).

Sean Payton is known for efficiently rotating his RBs and could have McLaughlin on the Darren Sproles track. His chances of this occurring rose when Denver cut Samaje Perine. Can Payton unlock McLaughlin?

Samaje Perine (RB, KC) - 4% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%

Perine landed in perhaps the best possible spot after being cut by Denver. The 5-foot-11 RB steps into the Jerick McKinnon role for Kansas City, who just placed Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the reserve/non-football illness list.

With CEH out for at least the first four games, Perine is the clear passing-down back while Isiah Pacheco and Carson Steele battle for the rest. PFF had Perine as a top-five receiving back in 2023 and putting him with Patrick Mahomes could create magic.

Jaylen Wright (RB, MIA) - 22% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%

Wright is a rare double handcuff who may force Mike McDaniel’s hand into a three-man rotation. We aren’t expecting a concrete role out of the gate but for all of the market pressure regarding Raheem Mostert’s age and De’Von Achane’s durability, Wright seems undervalued. Miami is built to utilize multiple backs and turn lesser volume into dynamite so take every piece you can get.

#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on how he’ll distribute RB touches:

“Just trying to get individuals opportunities, and let those opportunities shape their overall breadth of how many touches they get in the course of a game… Just to get everybody involved is important for me, and… pic.twitter.com/1ikV2Bg3d9

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 2, 2024

Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) - 34% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%

Even the most staunch D'Andre Swift supporter likely has a little voice in their head whispering, “What if Herbert leads the Bears in touches?” Yes, Swift got paid, but Chicago had heaps of cash to throw around.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Herbert was a top-12 back in missed tackles forced and explosive run rate, but they still mixed in D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson. Maybe Herbert is nothing more than a great handcuff for a Chicago team with immense upside, but there’s a 5-10% chance Swift stumbles and Herbert’s talent shines.

Ray Davis (RB, BUF) - 18% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%

Davis has a chance to become what Latavius Murray could not. A reliable short-yardage rusher who can step into valuable goal-line carries and ease the burden on Josh Allen. That’s not to say Allen won’t get his, but the man just spiked for 15 rushing TDs and surely gives some of that back to the field.

Some will back a rise in James Cook’s role but Davis just scored 21 total touchdowns as a senior at Kentucky and Cook has been benched due to fumbles and avoided near the red zone. Let’s see what Buffalo rolls out inside the red zone out of the gate.

Antonio Gibson (RB, NE) - 25% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-2%

The 2024 Patriots are going to struggle on offense. That offensive line will have year-long problems that require great pass protection out of their running backs while demanding quick dump-offs to move the ball. Gibson can benefit from both points.

Rhamondre Stevenson is talented and a factor in the passing game himself so don’t get carried away, but like Stevenson, Gibson was a top-eight pass blocker per PFF. They invested knowing they’d be protecting Drake Maye eventually, so we’ll see how long the Jacoby Brissett lame-duck run lasts.

If Gibson protects the ball then he could carve out PPR value on a team that should be passing early and often. And he’s proven he can make something out of a bad situation should a defender get to him early.

Antonio Gibson had a bad, bad fumbling problem last year (almost 1 per 29 touches), but he was also a beast after contact.

He averaged 3.51 rushing yards after contact, fourth-highest among RBs with 60+ carries, per PFF. https://t.co/xK7joKhLjf

— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) March 11, 2024

Bucky Irving (RB, TB) - 19% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-2%

Just in case Rachaad White’s poor efficiency metrics were not simply a reflection of poor offensive line play, Irving should be rostered early on. Perhaps he’s nothing more than a change-of-pace back but he’s shown decisiveness in the preseason and has rushing and receiving prowess to make him a versatile asset for the Bucs.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB) - 29% rostered

FAAB Bid: 6-10%

Wicks is the closest thing to a wide receiver handcuff as it gets. But even then, Green Bay could easily rotate him in with the big three of Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson.

We know Watson has put in plenty of work this offseason to improve his health and did not miss a practice all offseason, but faith remains questionable until the games played mount up. Wicks was a menace everywhere, but especially popped beyond the sticks, catching 20-of-33 targets beyond 10 yards for 395 yards and four touchdowns with just one drop.

*Romeo Doubs is already limited with a hand injury and Green Bay plays on Friday.

Adonai Mitchell (WR, IND) - 31% rostered

FAAB Bid: 5-8%

With Josh Downs’ Week 1 status unclear due to a left high-ankle sprain, Mitchell is poised to give us key Week 1 intel on his talent and standing on the team. Indy takes on a Houston team that will surely press the action and we’ve seen Alec Pierce fail to make a substantial impact thus far.

The Colts will go through Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the ground, with Michael Pittman Jr. still the No. 1 receiver. But they lack a clear threat at tight end so Downs’ absence opens up the door for Mitchell to make a big Week 1 statement.

Adonai Mitchell last night:

* 15 routes on 16 Richardson dropbacks
* 19 of 24 snaps in the slot

Looks like he'll be the primary slot receiver until Josh Downs is ready to return from his ankle injury.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 23, 2024

Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL) - 17% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%

It’s easy to forget about Mooney thanks to Justin Fields’ poor passing and a broken leg suffered in 2022. He’s now two years removed from that and finds himself playing with a deep-ball aficionado in Kirk Cousins.

No safety can help over the top with Mooney thanks to Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. We’ve never seen Mooney hit it big in the red zone, topping out at four TDs in a season even in his 81-catch, 1,055-yard 2021 campaign. We’ve internalized this ceiling and that is simply incorrect.

Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 15% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%

Wilson started to gain momentum in the first half of his rookie season with 86 yards in a Week 3 and a 7-76-2 line in Week 4. He would top 55 yards in two of his next four games despite Arizona using Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune while Kyler Murray recovered.

The rookie hurt his shoulder in Week 8 and missed Week 9, only to reaggravate it going into Week 11 alongside a neck injury. He finally got to consistently play with Murray down the stretch, and though he didn’t log a catch in Weeks 15-16, Wilson put up 4-35-1 and 6-95-0 lines in Weeks 17-18.

Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - 4% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%

This writer remains befuddled and flabbergasted at how overlooked Dortch is. Kyler Murray is fully healthy and Dortch is the every-down slot man who has a proven track record of success with Murray.

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are excellent and we’ve covered Michael Wilson as well. Perhaps it is simply that y’all think there’s no pie left for Dortch to eat. In fact, let’s rip off a clean fly-by of the No. 3 WRs who are under-rostered since I know there are more than 5% of y’all in PPR leagues.

Demario Douglas (WR, NE) - 16% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%

We’ve established that New England cannot wait for plays to develop. Douglas was their most reliable wide receiver last season and should reprise the role with Kendrick Bourne (knee) rehabbing. Ja’Lynn Polk is exciting but rookie expectations here are tempered. K.J. Osborn and Tyquan Thornton are not the ceiling profiles we’re after.

Those in PPR formats need to remember Douglas’ role with how often the Patriots will fall into a negative gamescript. He should be the safety blanket for Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye. We can promise passing volume, but whether he finally scores an NFL TD will fall on New England.

Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL) - 14% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%

You’re hoping Bateman takes the leap and becomes more than a rotational deep threat. One isn’t enamored with Baltimore’s version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling as Bateman enters his fourth NFL season with only four career TDs over 34 games.

But any spark should keep him well ahead of Nelson Agholor and a weak WR room. Let’s hope he can find more consistent results on the field and take advantage of defenses that get sucked in by Derrick Henry’s presence.

Demarcus Robinson (WR, LAR) - 6% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%

There was Jordan Whittington hype but Robinson remains the WR3 to start the season. You’ll recall Robinson scored in four straight games between Weeks 13-16 and caught six balls for 92 yards in Week 17.

That stretch came with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field thanks to their reliance on three-wide sets. They may pull back a bit on that but it shouldn’t be much with their personnel largely remaining intact. Trust in gunslinger Matthew Stafford to make it happen, even if Whittington and Tutu Atwell mix in some.

Jalen McMillan (WR, TB) - 5% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%

McMillan, also known as McMillions in the fantasy streets, could rise for a Tampa Bay team whose passing identity has always orbited Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They did support a third with Antonio Brown in 2021 but that had Tom Brady’s insane passing volume in tow.

Regardless, McMillan is set to start on the perimeter alongside Evans while Godwin moves back into the slot. This should be a far more efficient look for Tampa given the limited effectiveness of Cade Otton and their other secondary options.

Better protection will come for Baker Mayfield thanks to Graham Barton at center, which should buy time for McMillan to enjoy single coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire the cannons here, especially if you are fading Evans due to age/mileage.

Bucs quarterback Baked Mayfield on the emergence of Jalen McMillan as WR3: “I keep mentioning teams are going to have to decide on how they want to defend us. You can’t exactly just shade a safety over on the top of Mike [Evans] every time now. We have threats.” pic.twitter.com/jv8Phe7Wgx

— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) August 24, 2024

Here are some other No. 3 WRs that are worth having around in case their role surprises. These are players with strong passing offenses.

Jalen Tolbert (WR, DAL) -3% rostered
Andrei Iosivas (WR, CIN) - 2% rostered
Ray-Ray McCloud III (WR, ATL) - 2% rostered
Malik Washington (WR, MIA) - 0% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-2%

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith (TE, MIA) - 8% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-3%

This is a strange blind spot across the industry but we’ll continue to lean on it. Smith is a starting member of the 2024 Miami Dolphins, who have proven that every player brought in has a clear purpose and fit for the scheme.

Smith boasts tremendous burst with the ball and top-end speed for his position, which Mike McDaniel can scheme into space. If even Arthur Smith could find a way for Smith to score a 60-yard TD on a bubble screen, then what can McDaniel do while everyone else is chasing Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, and so on? Let’s see why they signed him.

Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL) - 21% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%

This one is simple. You’re holding Likely through Week 1 to see if his route participation rises to fantasy relevance. Baltimore does not have strong WR depth beyond Zay Flowers so Likely could be an active weapon alongside Mark Andrews in some packages. If Likely isn’t getting more than 3-4 looks then we move on to the next dart throw.

OC Todd Monken is excited about having Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the field together: pic.twitter.com/cUUSTFT00W

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 2, 2024

Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ) - 20% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-2%

Conklin has had 87 targets in three consecutive seasons and now gets Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Thanks to the 2023 Jets passing offense, Conklin had zero touchdowns despite 61 catches for 621 yards.

Want to find the next most involved TE to not score a TD in 2023? That would be Noah Fant, who had just below half of the opportunities Conklin saw with 43 targets. Sheesh!

Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) - 3% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-2%

An offseason foot surgery permanently dampened all enthusiasm for Johnson, burying his average draft position and default rank in most draft rooms. He (quietly) played in their preseason finale and caught fire at the end of 2023, catching a touchdown in all three fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 15-17).

The Saints have little set in stone beyond Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara. Taysom Hill has plenty of buzz but will play all over the place, so those high on Hill don’t necessarily have to fade Johnson.

Ben Sinnott (TE, WAS) - 8% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-2%

Yes, Zach Ertz is most likely an early-season logjam. But Sinnott could see additional involvement with the question marks surrounding Washington’s WR room beyond Terry McLaurin. Let’s see if they split him out wide or run two-TE sets more often until a true WR2 emerges.

Colby Parkinson (TE, LAR) - 5% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%

Parkinson has an early chance to run as Matthew Stafford’s starting tight end. No defense can afford to pay him additional mind with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams/Blake Corum on the field.

Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN) - 2% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%

Dulcich has struggled to stay on the field since his rookie campaign flashed a fantasy ceiling through five top-12 weeks in 10 games played. That included two games with 85 or more yards.

He only lightly played in two games last year after injuring the same hamstring that cost him time in 2022, but is healthy going into 2024 with a vacuum for targets beyond Courtland Sutton. If he develops chemistry with Bo Nix early on then we could score big in the Mile High City. This was after 2022 but since he missed '23 the data holds:

Greg Dulcich is my No. 1 late TE target. In 2022, he took 58.1% of snaps from the slot (5th), while being 3rd in ADOT (12.7), and 7th in target separation (2.36). Greg D. can stretch the field and be a YAC monster, everything we want. pic.twitter.com/vn5KakQRoN

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) August 9, 2023

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs DEN) - 10% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-2%

For all of the nice things we’ve said about Denver players, they’re still going against Seattle’s 12th man with a rookie signal-caller and several unproven players. Seattle could bracket Courtland Sutton, press the box against the ground game, and mix in several creative blitzes to force errors from Bo Nix.

Oh, and the Seahawks face the Patriots in Week 2. It is on the road in Foxboro but this is a fantastic one-two punch to open the season, which allows you to focus on other upside swings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs WAS) - 21% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%

We continue picking on rookies with Tampa Bay against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. But Washington’s offensive line, while improved from last season, is one of the worst in the league. Daniels will be scrambling and could try to do too much on his own in his debut as Vita Vea stuffs any attempts to establish a north-south ground attack.

Atlanta Falcons Defense (vs PIT) - 9% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%

For those of you looking to exact revenge on Arthur Smith for past transgressions, get in line with the Falcons' defense for this Week 1 date. This includes non-believers in Russell Wilson and anyone with worries over Jaylen Warren being truly 100% for the season opener.

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