Christian Watson - Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is a fantasy football breakout candidate in 2023. Andrew Ball provides an outlook and analysis for the second-year pass catcher.

The rookie season for Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson started in disaster. On his very first play from scrimmage as a professional, the second-round draft pick dropped a wide-open, would-be touchdown from then-quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

After that, Watson disappeared faster than the ball slipping through his hands. Injuries forced him to miss three games and the rookie never saw more than 33% of the snaps when he was active. That froze the potential of a breakout season, but he certainly did have a breakout stretch.

From Week 10 until the end of the 2022 season, Watson's average depth of target climbed to just over 16 yards. In the six games prior, it was a paltry 0.58 yards. All seven of his receiving touchdowns (tied for first among rookies) came in Weeks 10 through 13. He also added a 46-yard rushing touchdown in that stretch.

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That sort of production over that short of a time frame is certainly not repeatable. With that said, fantasy managers are hoping he can provide a more consistent approach to 2023.

Christian Watson, The Prospect

Although he was the seventh wide receiver off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft, Watson entered his first season with high expectations. The Packers had recently shipped All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams to Las Vegas, leaving Allen Lazard and the rookie Watson as the top receiving options for Green Bay.

Watson wasn't a first-round pick largely due to his level of play in college. He dominated on limited receptions at North Dakota State University because he was bigger and faster than his FCS-level competition. His athleticism score at the NFL Combine ranked first among wide receivers, but there were concerns that he would struggle against NFL defenders.

The beginning of his career was marred by injuries. A knee tear in OTAs forced him to miss a significant chunk of his first training camp. A hamstring injury then took him off the field for several games during the regular season. With all the missed repetitions, Aaron Rodgers did not trust the rookie until injuries to other wideouts forced his hand.

Highlights of Christian Watson's Rookie Season

With an inability to get the ball to Watson through the air, the Packers coaching staff showed their creativity. In Week 4 against New England, the rookie finished with one catch for eight yards, but 12 yards after the catch.

Quick math there tells us that the play was designed to get Watson the ball behind the line of scrimmage. His only other touch, and first career touchdown, came on a jet sweep.

In Week 13, Watson had a similar play against Chicago, where he took a jet sweep 46 yards to the house. Plays like this offer Watson another opportunity to show off his speed and break off a long score. The Packers are also known to run similar plays in the red zone.

As the season progressed, Matt LaFleur and company gave the rookie more freedom on his routes and his efficiency exploded. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Watson led the league in target premium (+53.2%) and fantasy points per target (2.52).

He also finished second in QB rating per target (123.3) and third in fantasy points per route run (0.64). When defenses matched up against him man-to-man, he torched them, averaging 2.64 fantasy points per target against man coverage. He ranked second in the entire league in that metric.

The Future Of The Green Bay Offense

For the first time since 1992, a Hall of Fame quarterback is not the regular starter in Green Bay (at least not that we know of, I don't want to discount Jordan Love too early). Aaron Rodgers followed the Brett Favre path and will be the starter for the New York Jets in the twilight of his career.

The veteran took his buddies Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb with him to New York while tight end Robert Tonyan signed with the rival Chicago Bears. That's half of Green Bay's six leading receivers, now in a different uniform.

There are a lot of targets up for grabs in this offense. Second most in the league, in fact. Watson, Romeo Doubs, and rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave figure to be the top target hogs, although running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will get their shares out of the backfield. The bulk of the work should go to the sophomores, Watson and Doubs. Each posted just over 40 receptions in their first year.

In two preseason games, Jordan Love completed 12-of-18 passes for 130 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. That's about the extent of what we've seen of the 24-year-old signal-caller. He's appeared in 10 games in three seasons, mostly in garbage time duty.

The former Utah State Aggie does have one start under his belt, back in 2021, when he went 19-for-34 for 190 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His play in the preseason is promising, but we're a long way away from knowing if he can support a breakout wide receiver.

Christian Watson, The Breakout Candidate

Watson has shown that he has the speed, frame, and athleticism to play wide receiver in this league. Unlike his fellow sophomore receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, he's not overly expensive in fantasy football drafts.

Watson is coming off the board around pick 45, according to NFC ADP, in drafts conducted since August 14. That's the back half of the fourth round in a 12-team league.

DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London, and Terry McLaurin are other wideouts being drafted in that range. At this point in their careers, we know what Hopkins and McLaurin are. Moore has the potential to have a career year with the change of scenery but is still on a Chicago team that called the most run plays in the league in 2022.

Both London and Watson have the potential to break out in 2023, but there's more league-wide confidence in Jordan Love than there is in Desmond Ridder. The touchdown numbers for Watson may stay similar (or possibly even decline) but expect more robust target numbers and yards.

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