RADIO
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs.
Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers at the forward position. For whatever reason -- be it talent, lack of opportunity, chances to rack up minutes, good and bad environments, etc-- these are players who fantasy GMs are currently buying at too high or too low ADPs this early in the pre-season.
Let's look at some forwards that have bust/sleeper potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues looking at their early September ADPs.
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Undervalued: Julius Randle - New York Knicks
I am the first to admit that Julius Randle is, most probably, one of the leading candidates to experience regression next season. Randle is coming off a magnificent 6MOY-worthy season in which he posted an impressive 24-10-6-1 line in some monster 37+ MPG playing for Coach Thibs. The USG% was sky-high at 29.3 and Randle got to play almost all games logging 71 starts. No wonder that helped him to a 4th-overall finish in fantasy leagues, and a still-great 12th-overall per-game FPPG average.
The ADP is high at 21, but I think that's still undervaluing Randle's incredible upside while playing for these Knicks. It's going to take a bit of an effort for Randle to have a repeat season in 2022, sure, but the Knicks haven't changed that much, have brought pieces (namely Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier) that should keep defenders honest and away from locking into clamping Randle, and although Julius will probably not shoot 18+ FGA per game next year he was super-efficient at it with 45/41/81 shooting splits with 5.5 3PA and 6.0 FTA per game. At his per-game FPPG pace, Randle could have missed almost 10 games and still log a top-10 fantasy finish, which tells me that even with a slight regression he should still be a lock to clinch that top-20 (and higher) finish fantasy GMs are valuing him at these days.
Overvalued: Mikal Bridges - Phoenix Suns
Playing for the latest NBA finalist can do this to one's ADP, I guess. Enter the "Finals Bias". The Suns made it all the way to a runner-up postseason run that only fell a couple of Ws short of ending in a chip. Bridges, of all men involved in the Finals playing for the losing Suns, is perhaps experiencing the most confounding raise in ADP this summer. While there is not really a point in comparing Bridges' numbers to those of reigning-champ with the Bucks P.J. Tucker, I like the comparison in that they are good on-the-floor performers but at the same time they should remain fantasy afterthoughts.
Mikal Bridges is entering his age-25 (and fourth) season and he's never topped 13 PPG, 4 RPG, or 2 APG.. He does it all--he posted a season average of 13-4-2-1-1 last year--but he does so on such low numbers that his production is nothing really viable in the fantasy realm. If we assume that Bridges is a "specialist" worth rostering in certain types of leagues (Bridges shot an impressive 54/42/84 splits on 9+ FGA, 4+ 3PA, and 1+ FTA) or just a play to boost your team's shooting, then his ADP of 53 starts looking a little bit of a stretch and an overpayment. Bridges' 0.81 FP/min mark was the eight-lowest among forwards with 30+ MPG in 2021, yet his ADP is the highest in that group (Covington's 86 ranks second-highest; none other is above 127). The 65th-overall finish came down to the 72 (all possible, and all of them starting) games played combined with the high MPG more than anything, as Bridges could only average the 122nd-highest FP/min mark with no positional restrictions, and the 39th-best for a forward. Ugh.
Undervalued: Pascal Siakam - Toronto Raptors
An ADP of 65+ overall and only the 20th forward off draft boards? I think fantasy folks are definitely never going to properly assess Siakam's talents on a basketball court... The Raptors, in case you didn't realize last year, spent a whole 72-game season playing away from home. Siakam, on top of that, missed 16 games himself. Even with all of those cons in front of him, Siakam was able to finish the 2021 season as a top-40 player and top-13 F on a total FP basis, and an even better 30th and 11th in terms of his FPPG average. Yet folks out there are letting him sleep way past those ranks. Siakam's near-36 MPG were absolutely out of another era, but that won't change any time soon now that Kyle Lowry is out of the 6ix and Siakam will be tasked with leading the team as Toronto's honcho.
Siakam's three-point slump was very real last season as he fell below 30% for the first time since he was still a backup in 2018. Even though he underwent surgery on his shoulder earlier this year, he's expected back in November at the latest and he finished quite high last year already missing ample time. The positive rebound is coming, and there's no way around that: in the infamous 2020 season and playing 60 G, Siakam was a top-30 player and that looks more like his 2022 floor than his ceiling, if you ask me. You can count the forwards who finished 2021 with a 20-7-4-1 baseline: Siakam, Tatum, Giannis, and Sabonis. Their average ADP? 14.5 to Siakam's 65.
Overvalued: Khris Middleton - Milwaukee Bucks
If you read Mikal Bridges' section above, you know what's the deal with Middleton's ADP and its sudden rise. Don't get me wrong: I don't hate Khris, and I'm all him for a proper valuation of his game once for all. But an ADP of 32 might be a little too much for Midd and just a product of the championship he just bagged playing the Giannis' second fiddle role. Middleton finished last year as a top-18 player (fantastic!) but looking at his per-game numbers that rank drops to 43th-overall and just 14th-best forward. As always, the massive 68 G and 33+ MPG helped him quite a bit.
Middleton is great, and if you spend a top-30 pick on the man you're probably going to have no regrets about it when all is said and done entering next season's playoffs. He will provide you with plenty of fantasy goods. But he won't probably put that high ROI we're seeking to get our bang for the buck (no pun intended). Also: regression. Midd is coming off a near-career-year with a 20-6-5-1 average per-game line, shooting splits above his career line, and more shots than he's ever attempted at 15.8 FGA per game. Again, it's not that Middleton is going to turn into a walking dud come 2022, but for his ADP I'd rather draft the likes of Sabonis, Randle, or Jimmy Butler.
Undervalued: Harrison Barnes - Sacramento Kings
There is still time remaining in the off/pre-season for Sacramento to make some moves and trade some of its current players. That being said, and assuming Barnes remains in Cali for at least another year, the forward is looking like a true bargain as part of a squad that hasn't really made any changes that could potentially hurt Barnes' upside for the 2022 campaign. Just 58 games were enough for Barnes to get himself into the top-25 forwards of the year and finish 2021 as a top-70 overall player in fantasy leagues--pretty much a re-do of his 2020 year, only he did it playing 72 G back then compared to 12 fewer matches last season. That is why his 104+ ADP makes little to no sense.
While not a scoring/three-point machine, Barnes held up 49/39/83 shooting splits while attempting 11+ FGA and 4+ 3PA per game last season. Only 14 forwards did so, yet Barnes ADP is painting the picture of a borderline-30th-best player at the position. Yikes, that wrong value assessment... Barnes had a 2.2 AST:TO ratio, a top-5 mark among players at the position, making him a great pick even for 9-cat formats. Barnes has basically no competition at either F spot as Marvin Bagley III is the starting PF and it is not that Sacto won't be open to sending him to the bench while downsizing playing Barnes at the four if needed.
Overvalued: Tobias Harris - Philadelphia 76ers
Discussing anything that has to do with Philadelphia is a risk these days, as it might turn into old news the minutes it gets published. But here we're are, living on the edge! Ben Simmons is determined to set the town on fire after officially demanding a trade, and with such a massive move looming it's hard to know how whatever happens and whoever arrives in town will affect Harris' upside. Even then, though, I just can't wrap my head around Tobi carrying a high ADP of 41 at the start of September. That's the 12th-highest ADP among forwards, by the way.
Harris is coming off a year in which he finished as the 40th-best overall fantasy player and 51st-best on a per-game basis. This is pretty much the same situation as the one I discussed above talking about Khris Middleton. Harris will be there more probably than not, and another top-50 finish is definitely possible. Is that going to hand you a high ROI, though? I don't think so. Tobi was slightly better than Midd when it came to shooting, put up a nice 19-7-3-1-1 line, limited his turnovers to just 1.7 TOPG, and averaged 1.13 FP/min. That's all good. But remember, he was playing next to a point that barely shoots and who unlocked a high 24 USG% from Harris. Only Embiid (17.6) had more FGA than Harris (14.9) per game in Philly last season. It'd be naive to peg Harris as a "specialist", but his rebounding (11 TRB%), assisting (17 AST%), and blocking (2 BLK%) combined for something that almost 20 other F/C did last year. Other than the "high" assisting rate (translating to just 3.5 APG, though), the rebound and block ones were low, and all things considered, Harris finished 2021 as one of only 15 forwards averaging fewer than 7 RPG, 4 APG, and 1 BPG while playing 30+ MPG (adding wood to the fire, Harris had the highest usage rate among those in that group, tied for the second-most TOPG).
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