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Brad Johnson's 2016 fantasy baseball keeper and dynasty league rankings for the top MLB outfield prospects in the NL East. Find your next star prospect here.
It's been awhile since I offered up the top catching prospects for dynasty leagues (also first base, second base, shortstop, and third base). With the fantasy season fast approaching, we'll spend the next few weeks blitzing through outfielders and pitchers.
There is a daunting quantity of outfield prospects. Anytime you're feeling overwhelmed by a task, you should break it into manageable chunks. So that's what we're going to do today by looking at the outfielders of the NL East. The sheer quantity of outfield prospects means every dynasty owner has a chance for a slice of the pie.
The NL East is flooded with Phillies. In terms of meaningful prospects with any likelihood of starting the majors, the rest of the division barely totals more than Philadelphia's contribution. Overall, I've identified 26 outfielders to track.
Be sure to also check out all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. We have rankings and tiers across all positions, for MLB prospects, and for dynasty/keeper leagues.
The statistics reported are for the listed level only.
NL East Outfield Dynasty Rankings
1. Nick Williams (OF, PHI, AA)
Stats: 515 PA, .303/.354/.491 17 HR, 13 SB, 19% K rate, 6% BB rate
Age 22
Williams is a quality outfield prospect with loud tools and a possible 2016 ETA. It's his proximity to the majors that gets him the nod over the next guy on the list. The Phillies acquired Williams as part of the Cole Hamels trade - a deal which included several of their current top prospects (and Jerad Eickhoff).
The 2015 campaign was perhaps Williams' best in the minors. He still has plate discipline issues. Specifically, he's over aggressive. But the season was a success in that he improved his strikeout rate substantially while tapping into his power more consistently. It's tempting to look at Williams as a potential five category fantasy contributor. The stolen bases may not translate to the majors - he was caught eight times in 21 attempts.
When Williams is ready, the Phillies outfield will magically develop an opening for him. The club has enough depth that there's no need to rush him to the front lines. Don't be surprised if he spends most of the next two seasons in the minors. If and when the light bulb goes off, he could quickly ascend to the heart of the Phillies order. There's still a wide range of potential outcomes with Williams.
2. Victor Robles (OF, WAS, A-)
Stats: 167 PA, .343/.424/.479, 2 HR, 12 SB, 12.6% K rate, 4.8% BB rate
Age 19
In many ways, Robles is a vastly superior prospect to Williams. He's rocketed up prospect lists in the last calendar year after two successful stops in the Nationals system. Continued success in 2016 could see him considered for a spot among the Top 10-20 prospects in baseball.
Robles doesn't have much professional experience. The excitement is all about his projectability and tools. It helps that he's looked unchallenged in his brief career. He is a contact oriented hitter, but it's uncertain how much, if at all, his power will develop. His raw tools suggest the potential for quality defense and a high average.
He hasn't played enough professionally to get a firm read on his plate discipline. His pitch recognition will determine just how quickly he surges through the system. Will he be knocking on the door in late 2017, or does he have several years of development ahead of him? The latter scenario is much more common with this type of prospect.
While Robles is no Bryce Harper, his emergence could help the Nationals move on from their current star. Harper is a free agent after the 2018 season, and it's widely assumed he'll test the market in search of a record-shattering contract. Meanwhile, Robles will be entering his age 22 season and should be ready to contribute.
3. Mallex Smith (OF, ATL, AAA)
Stats: 307 PA, .281/.339/.367, 34 SB, 14.3 K rate, 7.8 BB rate
Age 23
The Braves top outfield prospect is a leadoff hitter in the making. He has a patient approach, decent contact skills, and the confidence to work the count. His carrying tool is elite 80 grade speed. He won't challenge a healthy Billy Hamilton for the stolen base crown, but he could easily finish second. He swiped 57 bags in 2015 and 92 bases in 2014.
His speed allowed him to BABIP the lower levels to death, but Triple-A offered a serious challenge. He posted a sane .332 BABIP in Triple-A compared to a .412 BABIP in Double-A. That could be "luck" or a reflection of superior defenses. He'll find the majors even more difficult.
We've seen in recent years that it doesn't take much baseball skill for elite speed to work. Dee Gordon took a while to adjust to the majors. Once he did, he became a top fantasy asset. Billy Burns had his warts, but he was still quite valuable last year. Hamilton is the extreme example with his gaudy steals total and utter lack of on base ability. Smith seems to have the necessary skills to guarantee a major league floor with fantasy value. The worst case scenario looks something like Jarrod Dyson.
4. Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM, AAA)
Stats: 112 PA, .264/.393/.418, 3 HR, 5 SB, 17.9% K rate, 16.1% BB rate
Age 23
Nimmo's future as a major league outfielder is subject to open debate. I'm sure you can pick out the elite skill - it's his plate discipline. He consistently posts walk rates in the mid-teens. His strikeout rates are tolerable too.
There's a subtle difference between being patient and passive at the plate, and Nimmo may stray in the wrong direction. In the upper levels, a passive approach can leave a hitter permanently behind in the count. It's difficult to post a quality batting line when always protecting against sharp breaking balls.
As a hitter, Nimmo is described as line drive oriented with little current power projection. He could sudden discover pop later in his career, but he won't help your fantasy team much in the interim. If you're not in an OBP league, Nimmo's next few years aren't really worth targeting.
5. Tyler Goeddel (OF, PHI, AA)
Stats: 533 PA, .279/.350/.433, 12 HR, 28 SB, 18.4% K rate, 9% BB rate
Age 23
Goeddel, a former first round pick of the Rays, was selected by the Phillies in the most recent Rule 5 draft. The club proved last year they weren't afraid to use a Rule 5 guy in an everyday role. Odubel Herrera actually turned out to be the best player on the roster (at least once Hamels was traded). For a second consecutive year, there's a chance a Rule 5 player will start for the Phillies.
Goeddel has two competitors for two spots - Peter Bourjos and Aaron Altherr. They're both favorites to earn corner outfield roles, but neither has a job on lock down. Goeddel can sneak ahead of either player at any time during the spring or early summer.
If he does find reps, he has an intriguing combination of of power and speed. Goeddel isn't considered to be completely big league ready so there will be some rough patches in his offensive game. While scouts don't think contact will be a problem long term, it could be in 2016. That would make him look something like the 2015 version of Steven Souza with the power and speed flipped. Say, 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases over 450 plate appearances.
With Philadelphia's minor league outfield depth, Goeddel won't have a long time to firmly establish himself. By mid-2017, he could be too far down the depth chart to carve out a regular role. He'll have to make good on his early chances. As such, he's a high risk, high reward pick for dynasty owners.
6. Roman Quinn (OF, PHI, AA)
Stats: 257 PA, .306/.356/.435, 4 HR, 29 SB, 16.3% K rate, 7% BB rate
Age 22
Quinn is somewhat like Smith, except he's farther from the majors and rarely healthy. He doesn't grind his at bats as well as Smith, and there are more contact issues with his bat. Since he has a spot on the 40-man roster, Quinn should be one of the next Phillies prospects to get the call - ahead of Williams and all the others (except Sweeney).
He has the same 80 grade speed as Smith, but he hits more fly balls. That's a double-edged sword for fantasy owners. Quinn has some modest power upside - perhaps a future of 10 to 15 home runs annually, but he also won't post the high BABIPs of a player like Gordon. The result will be a lower average and OBP than you'd like to see from an elite burner.
The tools could come together to form a fantasy monster. More likely, he'll either struggle to transition to the upper levels or suffer more injuries. He's a high variance target.
Names To Watch
Cornelius Randolph (OF, PHI, R)
We already saw Randolph once before in this series when we profiled the shortstops. Since then, I've learned that the Phillies are completely committed to using him as an outfielder. The Phillies took Randolph 10th overall last June. The 18-year-old demonstrated advanced plate discipline with 52 hits, 32 walks, and 32 strikeouts in 212 plate appearances.
Stone Garrett (OF, MIA, A-)
The Marlins best outfield prospect, Garrett is coming off an impressive 247 plate appearance stint in Low-A. He hit 11 home runs and swiped eight bases. It's said his swing could use some adjustments, but he's a plus athlete and could be a future regular center fielder with speed and power.
Dylan Cozens (OF, PHI, AA)
Here's a disingenuous comparison - Paul Goldschmidt. Cozens has big latent power, although it wasn't terribly present in 2015. He's supposed to have the 30 home run power Goldy showed in the minors, but Cozens has only topped out at 16. He did swipe 20 bases last year despite fringe-average speed.
Wuilmer Becerra (OF, NYM, A)
Becerra checks the boxes fantasy owners like to see in a prospect. He hit nine home runs, stole 16 bases, and posted a sub-20 percent strikeout rate over 487 plate appearances. That's a good foundation for a prospect.
Darnell Sweeney (OF, PHI, MLB)
The principle return of the Chase Utley return, Sweeney was a good "get" for half a season of a struggling veteran. He's probably a utility man with some ability to play second base in addition to all three outfield spots. If he ever earned a full time role, he has 10 home run and 30 steal potential.
Brian Pointer (OF, PHI, AA)
Pointer played a couple games in Triple-A, but he spent most of the year in Double-A. He's posted the power and speed fantasy owners like to see, but there may be too much swing-and-miss in his overall profile.
Connor Lien (OF, ATL, A+)
Lien is a speed first prospect with acceptable power. He swiped 34 bags and popped nine home runs in 504 plate appearances this year. Entering his age 22 season, the organization is at least giving him some extra looks - they sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he was overmatched.
Austin Dean (OF, MIA, A+)
Dean has one of those profiles that doesn't read well on a scouting report but could come together into a major league regular. He makes a lot of contact with decent plate discipline. 2016 should be a big test for him at Double-A.
Braxton Davidson (OF, ATL, A)
Davidson is a former 32nd overall pick. In his first full professional season, he hit 10 home runs in 494 plate appearances with a lofty 17 percent walk rate. He also struck out too often - 27.3 percent.
Jhailyn Ortiz (OF, PHI, DNP)
Ortiz was one of the top international prospects of the current signing period. The Phillies had to trade for extra budget to make room for his $4MM bonus. He's said to be a massive 6'2, 260 pounds with 70 grade raw power. Contact could be an issue.
Juan Soto (OF, WAS, DNP)
Soto was reportedly the best left-handed hitting international prospect. He's said to have a balanced approach at the plate. He'll make his professional debut later this season.
Andrew Stevenson (OF, WAS, A)
Stevenson was a second round pick in the 2015 draft. In his debut, he showed off good speed and contact skills but lacked power. He's entering his age 22 season so there is some pressure to move quickly.
Brian Goodwin (OF, WAS, AA)
Goodwin actually failed out of Triple-A. He spent the entire 2014 season in the upper level of the minors only to be sent down for all of 2015. He has the power and speed fantasy owners want, but it will take a surprise breakout for him to earn a shot in the majors.
Rhett Wiseman (OF, WAS, A-)
A third round pick in the most recent draft, Wiseman hit for some power (5 HR) and stole six bases. Like Stevenson, he'll soon be 22 and needs to move quickly if he's to become a dynasty target.
Rafael Bautista (OF, WAS, A+)
Bautista has been in the system awhile. He's a speed threat with good contact skills and no power. He may one day be a Ben Revere-type hitter, but he's a long way from there. Only the very deepest dynasties will roster him.
Ivan Wilson (OF, NYM, R)
The story here is the potential for big upside with power and speed. The issue is that he's too frequently overmatched at the plate. He needs to figure out how to cut down on the ridiculous strikeout rate - and fast.
Dustin Peterson (OF, ATL, A+)
Peterson is very fringy for this list. Without his draft pedigree (50th overall), he would have been left off. There's growth potential for the 21-year-old, but he appears to lack impact tools.
Isael Soto (OF, MIA, A)
Soto barely played in 2015. I can't find an injury report, but I assume that's the cause. When he did play, he was hopelessly overmatched. He's said to have a fourth outfield profile with a whiff of upside.
Isaiah White (OF, MIA, R)
A third round pick in 2015, White showed off great speed in his debut with 13 steals in 132 plate appearances. He'll need to improve the other facets of his game if he wants to be fantasy relevant.
Desmond Lindsay (OF, NYM, A-)
Lindsay was selected 53rd overall in the 2015 draft. He appears to have been overly patient in his first exposure to the minors.
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